The arms race again – Part 1

The Chair of the Finance Committee in the Irish Parliament invited me to make a submission to inform a – Scrutiny process of EU legislative proposals – specifically to discuss proposals put forward by the European Council to increase spending on defence. This blog post and the next (tomorrow) will form the basis of my submission which will go to the Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure, Public Service Reform and Digitalisation on Friday. The matter has relevance for all countries at the moment, given the increased appetite for ramping up military spending. Some have termed this a shift back to what has been called – Military Keynesianism – where governments respond to various perceived and perhaps imaginary new security threats by increasing defence spending. However, I caution against using that term in this context. During the immediate Post World War 2 period with the almost immediate onset of the – Cold War – nations used military spending as a growth strategy and the term military Keynesianism might have been apposite. These nation-building times also saw an expansion of the public sector, which supported expanding welfare states and an array of protections for workers (occupational safety, holiday and sick pay, etc). However, in the current neoliberal era, the increased appetite for extra military spending is being cast as a trade-off, where cuts to social and environmental protection spending and overseas aid are seen as the way to create fiscal space to allow the defence plans to be fulfilled. That trade-off is even more apparent in the context of the European Union, given that the vast majority of Member States no longer have their own currency and the funds available at the EU-level are limited. We will discuss that issue and more in this two-part series.

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Australia’s lowest paid workers get some real wage relief from the latest adjustment to the minimum wage

On June 3, 2025 Australia’s minimum wage setting authority – the Fair Work Commission (FWC) issued their decision in the – Annual Wage Review 2025 – which provides for wage increases for the lowest-paid workers – around 0.7 per cent of employees (around 88 thousand) in Australia. In turn, around 20.7 per cent of all employees, who are on the lowest tier of their pay award (grade) receive a flow-on effect. The FWC provided a 3.5 per cent nominal wage increase for the lowest paid workers in its 2025 National Wage Case decision. Against the current CPI growth, that provides for some modest real wage increase for this cohort. However, note the discussion above as to the best purchasing power measure to use. Against the more applicable Employee Selected Cost of Living Index (SCLI), the decision provides for barely any real wages growth and fails to redress the massive real wage cuts in recent years. The media has failed to pick up on that reality, and has instead given oxygen to the employers’ responses which called the decision irresponsible while at the same time pocketing record profits as a result of their profit gouging. But at least the lowest-paid workers gained some relief as a result of the decision as the FWC largely ignored the whining of the employers.

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The Webbs knew more than a century ago that if you pay high wages you get high productivity

During the recent inflationary episode, the RBA relentlessly pursued the argument that they had to keep hiking interest rates, and then, had to keep them at elevated levels, well beyond any reasonable assessment of the situation, because wage pressures were set to explode. They claimed their business liaison panel was telling them that wages were becoming a problem despite the facts being that nominal wages growth was at record lows and real wages (the purchasing power of the nominal wages) were going backwards at a rate of knots. The RBA massaged that argument by adding that productivity was low and that there was no ‘non-inflationary’ space for wage increases as a result, as if it was the workers’ fault. Yesterday (May 28, 2025), the Productivity Commission (a federal agency that morphed out of the old – Tariff Board – published an interesting research report – Productivity before and after COVID-19 – which lays bare some of the misinformation that the corporate sector has been pumping into the public debate about productivity growth. In particular, it demonstrates that forcing workers to work longer hours undermines productivity growth, that work-from-home is beneficial, and the lack of investment in productive infrastructure by corporations is a major reason for the lagging productivity growth in Australia.

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Commentary on Moody’s downgrade gives the game away – finally

We sometimes encounter commentary that blows away the smoke that provides cover for important myths in the world of economics and finance. Whether that commentary knows the import of its message is questionable but it certainly has the effect of casting aside a myriad of fictions and redefines the sort of questions that one can ask. Such was the case last week following the decision by the ratings agency Moody’s on May 16, 2025 to ‘downgrade’ US government debt ratings from Aaa to Aa1. While many commentators acted in Pavlovian fashion and crafted the ratings downgrade as signifying that the US government was “more likely to default on their sovereign debt”, one influential opinion from the mainstream came out with the conclusion that “there is next to zero chance the government won’t be able to pay its creditors”. Which really game the game away and exposed these ratings agencies as political attack dogs representing sectional interests that want less government money going to welfare and more to them – among other things.

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Australian wages growth – real wages stable – no breakout evident

Throughout the recent period of higher than usual inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept telling us that they had to keep hiking rates (even though the inflation trajectory was downward) because they were predicting a wages explosion. Who told them about that? Their so-called business liaison meetings. The business sector is always claiming that a crippling wages breakout is about to happen because they want policy makers to suppress employment growth to give them the upper hand in wage negotiations. Anyway, no such wages explosion occurred. And the latest data shows that things haven’t changed. Today (May 14, 2025), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Wage Price Index, Australia – for the March-uarter 2025, which shows that the aggregate wage index rose by 3.4 per cent over the 12 months (up 0.2 points on the last quarter). While most commentators will focus on the nominal wages growth relative to CPI movements, the more accurate estimate of the cost-of-living change is the Employee Selected Living Cost Index, which is still running well above the CPI change. Using that measure, purchasing power of the nominal wages was stable in the March-quarter. There is no wages breakout happening.

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Trump Administration appears to be kicking lots of own goals

Soon after the US President announced – Liberation Day tariffs – I wrote this blog post – US government is pinning its tariff hopes on some unlikely to be realised assumptions (April 7, 2025) – to help readers understand what logic there was, if any, in the decision by the American government to impose wide-ranging and seemingly random tariffs on the rest of the world. The only apparent logic was that his advisors thought that while the tariffs would variously increase the US dollar price on final goods and services available to US consumers via imports, the flood of global investment funds into US treasury bonds, as a result of the heightened global uncertainty would push the US dollar up and offset the tariff impacts on import prices, because all foreign goods would now be cheaper. We now have a few weeks of data available to see whether things are turning out as Trump and his advisors thought. The definitive answer to date is that the opposite trends are emerging which will see the burden of the tariffs borne by the US consumers and producers rather than the presumption of the Administration that the burden would be pushed onto the rest of the world, which would precipitate rapid change in the favour of the US. It seems at present that an ‘own goal’ is being kicked – and – probably a lot of them.

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Does rising income inequality explain the rising support for right-wing political movements?

We know that after the Second World War, as nations embraced their major national policy statements (White Papers in many countries) to build their societies after the disruption of the War and the Great Depression, income inequality fell significantly. Since the 1970s, the post WW2 trend has been somewhat reversed in many (but not all) nations. The rising income inequality is particularly apparent in the Anglo advanced economies, with the US leading the way. In other nations, the trend is mixed, which suggests the link between rising income inequality and the rising support for right-wing political movements is less obvious than some commentators are suggesting. In fact, there is credible research that suggests the swing to right-wing political parties is not coming from the most precarious workers who appear to remain loyal to Leftist ideas. It is the next segment of workers up who have not yet been ravaged by globalisation but sense they are about to be who seem to have swung to the Right. In this blog post, I discuss some of these ideas and the research that is accompanying them.

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US government is pinning its tariff hopes on some unlikely to be realised assumptions

Last week, the US President honoured his election promise, indeed his long-held commitment, to increase tariffs on imported goods and services to the US. The formula they came up to differentiate between countries was bizarre but I don’t intend commenting on that here, except to say, the imposition of tariffs on the – Heard Island and McDonald Islands – which are an ‘Australian external territory’ that is a ‘a volcanic group of mostly barren Antarctic islands, about two-thirds of the way from Madagascar to Antarctica’ (where penguins live) ranked up there with their Signal chaos. These guys have access to the ‘red button’ after all. That’s the scary thing. Anyway I was sent a document that seemingly is the theoretical rationalisation for the tariff decision (thanks Mahaish, appreciated) and so I thought I would give it some time.

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Majority of Australians want fiscal deficits to be maintained and the majority of younger Australians want to ditch capitalism

We are now full-swing into the national election campaign in Australia (election on May 3, 2025) and we have a new party – the Trumpet of Patriots – (funded by a property developer/miner) channelling Trump’s approach, the conservatives channelling Trump’s approach (although with a slight more subtle voice but not much), the Greens chasing their tails, and the Labor government desperately trying to stay in power after running scared of doing very much over the last three years. It is not a great choice. The usual scare tactics from the Opposition are out in force – immigration, defence vulnerabilities, etc and the usual ‘free market’ stuff. The Labor government keeps hammering on about their fiscal rectitude – two surpluses out of three – as if we are all mainstream economists who are obsessed with those irrelevancies. But it seems that the voters are not so aligned with mainstream economists.

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The hollowing out of the middle class in the US and beyond

The Post WW2 period was marked by the mass consumption boom and the rise of the ‘middle class’, which is a sociological designation that is intended to say that the working class had segments that had experienced better conditions and outcomes than the labouring cohorts. The fact that Capital (as a class) deigned to concede to the rise of this cohort was due to the threat that the Soviet Union and the increasing interest in Marxism in Western nations during the mid-C20th posed to the on-going hegemony of capital. The solution was to share a bit of the booty out with workers, improve pay and working conditions, and provide the basis for a ‘divide and conquer’ strategy, which would effectively segment the working class into ‘individual’ elements that could be played off against each other. And to maintain the profits, sales had to expand and what better way than to encourage the ‘middle class’ households to consume like crazy and fill their ever increasing size homes with stuff. That strategy worked for some decades until the middle class and the trade unions started to get too vocal and demand more at which point something had to give. And in the early 1970s, give it did, and with Monetarism running rife in the academy and industrialists plotting to capture the legislatures (think Powell Manifesto), the conditions for neoliberalism were laid. And the next several decades have seen that ideology become dominant and establish a dynamic that is now likely to implode.
Today, I report on dimensions of that implosion.

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What is the purpose of fiscal policy? Don’t ask Rachel Reeves!

It’s been a week of grand fiscal statements. Tuesday, it was for Australia as I discussed yesterday – Australian fiscal statement – rising unemployment amidst a moderate fiscal contraction (March 26, 2025). Then yesterday in the UK, the Labour Chancellor delivered the British Government’s – Spring Statement 2025. Both statements come at a time when the mainstream economics consensus is shifting with the US pushing protection and defunding many global initiatives. And, one of the statements was in the context of an impending federal election (Australia) and from a government that is in danger of losing that election to a bunch of populist Trump-copiers. And the content reflected that. The UK Statement was from a Government currently in no danger of losing office but which is progressively entrapping itself in its hubris and fiscal rules. An interesting juxtaposition. Anyway, the British Chancellor has lost all understanding of what the purpose of fiscal policy is. What is the purpose of fiscal policy? Don’t ask Rachel Reeves!

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Australian fiscal statement – rising unemployment amidst a moderate fiscal contraction

Last night (March 25, 2025), the Australian government delivered the latest fiscal statement for 2025-26 (aka – The Budget – and, in doing so tried to win renewed electoral appeal given its waning popularity and a national election that has to be held in the next 6 or so weeks. So it offered the tax cuts and other inducements to the voters. But the underlying tenor of the fiscal position is unsustainable not because it is predicting on-going fiscal deficits out to 2028-29 but because those deficits will be too small relative to other trends that are likely to occur (external sector and household consumption spending). While the commentariat has been in conniptions about ‘eye watering red ink’ for a far as we can see (their eyes are poor), the fact is that the projected fiscal deficit is about the average level since 1970-71. But in the current environment, the forecasted government contraction will damage the economy and push unemployment up further than they are forecasting. Sure enough, the Government handed out some dollops of cost-of-living relief to low-income families – a few pennies in the scheme of things and that will probably help them retain votes. But with all the challenges ahead now is not the time to be in contractionary mode. Winning the election is one thing, but neglecting a host of existential matters in the medium term is not the way to go.

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Industrial disputation remains at record lows in Australia – the complete victory of capital over the working class

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest data today (March 12, 2025) on – Industrial Disputes, Australia – which covers the December-quarter 2024. The data shows that there was a slight decline in the number of industrial disputes over the last 12 months, although the number of working days lost rose significantly (by 15.4 per cent in the quarter). However, disputation remains at record lows. That fact is one of the success stories of neoliberalism and the way that the interests of Capital have co-opted government to ensure the income distribution was shifted back in favour of profits at the expense of wages. There are all sorts of explanations given to explain the low real wages growth in Australia over the last few decades and all try to sheet home the blame to global factors or demographic shifts. But the fact remains that there was concerted action by government under pressure from the employer groups to introduce legislation and regulation that undermined the capacity of the trade unions to pursue action in the interests of their members. That action was very successful from the perspective of capital and devastating to workers. Today’s blog post is really just a set of notes about the trends shown in this data.

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Five years into a pandemic and fiscal fictions have left space for nonsense to propagate

Life expectancy has fallen since Covid in almost every country although the policy response has been exactly the opposite to what should be expected. We now have the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services advocating ‘personal choice’ in vaccine take up while he recommended Vitamin A to deal with a spreading measles outbreak in Texas. Decades of science is being disregarded in favour of ideology. We are now five years into the Covid pandemic and the data suggests that the costs of our disregard will accumulate over time as more people die, become permanently disabled and lose their capacity to work. We also know that the ‘costs’ of the pandemic have been (and will be) borne by the more disadvantaged citizens in the community. I was talking to a medical doctor the other day in a social environment and I learned something new – that in Australia, there is a difficult process that one has to go through to get access to the ‘free’ (on the National Health list) anti-viral drugs if one gets Covid. However, if you have $A1,000 handy, you can ring your GP up and get an instant prescription for the same drugs and avoid all the hassle, which has reduced access significantly for lower income households. Another example of how fiscal fiction (governments haven’t enough money) favour the high income cohorts.

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Fiscal policy must be the tool of choice to respond to major climate related calamities – BIS

“Fiscal support can manage the direct economic fallout from extreme weather events.” That quote came from an interesting new research paper published in the 98th edition of the Bank of International Settlements Bulletin (February 10, 2025) – Macroeconomic impact of extreme weather events. The paper seeks to tease out what the economic impacts and policy implications are of the climate changes that are now manifest in various extreme weather events, such as droughts, wildfires, storms, and floods, which are increasing in incidence across the globe. The researchers recognise that such events are increasingly imposing “high economic costs” and “social hardship” on communities around the world. Their conjecture is that the “most extreme weather events have been rising and are likely to increase further” which will challenge policy makers. They discuss the implication of this increased exposure to such events for fiscal and monetary policy but recognise that fiscal policy must be the frontline tool to respond to the damage caused by such events.

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The Left has created the swing to the Right – some reflections

The last several decades of what is termed the neoliberal era has led to some fundamental changes in our social and economic institutions. It was led by the interests of capital reconfiguring what the polity should be doing, given that most of the significant shifts have come through the legislative or regulative capacity (power) of our governments. In turn, this reconfiguration then spawned shifts within the political parties themselves such that the traditional structures and voices have changed, in some cases, almost beyond recognition. The impacts of these shifts have undermined the security and prosperity of many citizens and redistributed massive wealth to a small minority. The anxiety created as the middle class has been hollowed out has been crying out for representation – for political support. Traditionally, support for the socio-economic underdogs came from the Left, the progressive polity, which, after all was the Left’s raison d’être. But that willingness by the Left politicians to give voice to the oppressed has significantly diminished as it surrendered the macroeconomic debate to the mainstream and got lost in post modernism. As a consequence, the ideological balance has demonstrably shifted to the Right, and the former progressive parties have been abandoned. My thesis is that the Left has created a burgeoning return of the Right with a daring and resolve that we haven’t seen for decades. The election and aftermath of Donald Trump’s elevation to presidency demonstrates the situation. Last weekend’s general election in Germany demonstrates the situation. And today a poll was released in Australia that suggests the current Labor government, which slaughtered the conservatives in the last election just 3 years ago are now facing a clear loss to the Opposition – that is advocating Trump-style radicalism. As the saying goes – you get what you deserve.

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Australia – latest wages data shows workers’ purchasing power still going backwards

Yesterday, the RBA cut interest rates for the first time since November 2023. They claimed that further rate cuts would at least require further evidence of wage restraint, which tells you how the public debate has been so thoroughly taken over by fiction. Australia is experiencing a drought, not the regular paucity of rainfall, type of drought, but record low rates of growth in wages. The RBA defended its interest rate hikes with the assertion that they had intelligence from the business community that wages were about to break out in 2022, invoking a 1970s-style wage-price spiral in response to the initial supply shocks coming from the pandemic. Nothing of the sort happened. And the latest data shows that things haven’t changed. Today (February 19, 2025), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Wage Price Index, Australia – for the December-quarter 2024, which shows that the aggregate wage index rose by 3.2 per cent over the 12 months (down 0.3 points on the last quarter). Quarterly wages growth was 0.7 per cent, which the ABS noted was the “Lowest quarterly wage growth since March 2022”. In relation to the December-quarter CPI change (2.4 per cent), this result suggests that workers achieved modest real wage gains. However, if we use the more appropriate Employee Selected Living Cost Index as our measure of the change in purchasing power then the December-quarter result of 4.0 per cent means that real wages fell by 0.8 points. Even the ABS notes the SLCI is a more accurate measure of cost-of-living increases for specific groups of interest in the economy. However, most commentators will focus on the nominal wages growth relative to CPI movements, which in my view provides a misleading estimate of the situation workers are in.

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Economics as politics and philosophy rather than some independent science

Last week, I wrote about – The decline of economics education at our universities (February 6, 2025). This decline has coincided and been driven by an attempt by economists to separate the discipline from its roots as part of the political debate, which includes philosophical views about humanity and nature. In her 1962 book – Economic Philosophy – Joan Robinson wrote that economics “would never have been developed except in the hope of throwing light upon questions of policy. But policy means nothing unless there is an authority to carry it out, and authorities are national” (p.117). Which places government and its capacities at the centre of the venture. Trying to sterilise the ideology and politics from the discipline, which is effectively what the New Keynesian era has tried to do, fails. The most obvious failure has been the promotion of the myth of central bank independence. A recent article in the UK Guardian (February 9, 2025) – You may not like Trump, but his power grab for the economic levers is right. Liberals, take note – is interesting because it represents a break in the tradition of economics journalism that has been sucked into the ‘independence’ myth by the economics profession.

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The Case of the Missing Report – Part 2

Today, we solve the ‘Case of the Missing Report’. Recall from – The Case of the Missing Report – Part 1 – that the Asian Development Bank published a report I had written (with Randy Wray and Jesus Felipe) – A Reinterpretation of Pakistan’s ‘economic crisis’ and options for policymakers (draft version) – in June 2009 as part of work I was undertaking for the Bank at the time on economic development in Central Asia. The report was published on June 1, 2009 as an official ADB Economics Working Paper No. 163 after our presentations were enthusiastically received at the Bank during seminars we gave. The Report was indexed by the major bibliographic and indexing services and evidence of that report still exists today. For example, the Asian Regional Integration Center provides a link to some 30 records covering – Pakistan – including our ADB paper with the official publication date. The ‘official’ link to the publication – https://www.adb.org/Documents/Working-Papers/2009/Economics-WP163.pdf – however, now returns a ‘Page not Found’ error. Then, if you search for ADB Economics Working Paper No. 163 on the ADB WWW Site you will find another paper – The Optimal Structure of Technology Adoption and Creation: Basic Research vs. Development in the Presence of Distance to Frontier – which somehow became Working Paper No 163 and was also published in June 2009. So what gives? How did our ADB Economics Working Paper No. 163 disappear from the face of the Earth to be replaced by another ADB Working Paper No. 163, all in the space of a day or so? In this Part 2 of the ‘Case of the Missing Report’, I provide the solution to the mystery.

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The Case of the Missing Report – Part 1

This blog post is a long time in gestation and I could have written in 2009 which is the relevant year of the events that I will document in this two-part series. My conversations with government officials during my working trip to the Philippines last week highlighted several things, including their sheer terror of IMF intervention and the ratings agency. I will write separately about that in a later post. But the IMF watches these types of nations like a hawk and is ready to pounce to enforce their authority at the slightest departure from the neoliberal macroeconomic policy line. As long as these types of nations concede to the IMF bullying they have very little hope of developing towards being advanced states. And IMF bullying is what this blog post is about. This is Part 1 of a two-part story that might be summarised as the ‘Case of the Missing Report’. I will solve the mystery in Part 2, which will be published on Thursday of this week.

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