Fiscal responsibility index – reductio ad absurdum ad infinitum

I am Australian but not a proud one. That doesn’t mean anything other than I don’t consider nationalism to be a particularly appealing trait. I would perhaps defend our borders from attack and I prefer Australia winning at sport than the English (but not the West Indies!). But when I read a newspaper headline (March 24, 2011) – Australia tops index ranking for maintaining strong fiscal balance – I feel ashamed that I live in such a nation. Given the methodology that went into construct this index, Australia would be better off being down the bottom of the rankings – by choice rather than inaction. Just when you thought the public debate about fiscal policy couldn’t deteriorate any further … it plunges to new depths. This index is published in a new “study” (I would not actually give it the gravitas of a study) – is actually an exercise in reductio ad absurdum ad infinitum aka total BS.

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We’re sticking to our strict fiscal rules

I am travelling today and have commitments which will take me into the night. So I have limited blog time. But there is always something to say and while I might say the same thing often I figure that there are thousands of commentators to my one who all say the same (different) thing every day. Anyway today you will learn that the Japanese government can call on the central bank to buy its bonds whenever it wants. You will also learn how crazy the British government is and how obsessive compulsive behaviour locks a nation into slow growth and entrenched unemployment. We’re sticking to our strict fiscal rules – no matter what! Simple conclusion for today – the budget madness continues.

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Beyond austerity

I stole the title of today’s blog from an article I wrote for the US weekly – The Nation – which will come out on April 4 in print. The on-line version is out now. It comes out in the same week that the nations that are leading the austerity charge – Ireland and Britain – publish disastrous labour market data. The Irish data is nothing short of atrocious some 2 years after their government led them down the austerity path promising salvation. Where are the economists who from the desks of their safe jobs were highly vocal in promoting the myth of the “fiscal contraction expansion”? Still sipping Chardonnay from their safe jobs I dare say. The article, in part, is about how these liars have convinced governments to push their economies over the brink. It is also about how the same lies that are being to used to justify the austerity barrow were used to justify the massive deregulation that led to the financial sector feeding frenzy and caused the crisis in the first place. When we will ever learn? In today’s blog I offer a video commentary on the thoughts behind the article in this blog (which as it turns out didn’t save me much time – I seem to type faster than I speak!).

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Earthquake lies

I am travelling today and haven’t much time to write and I have a day of library document searches ahead. But the input from economists over the weekend in relation to the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan last week has been nothing short of a total disgrace. Even as the news was unfolding the mainstream neo-liberal ideologues were out in force preaching that the Japanese government was now facing a major fiscal crisis and its capacity to deal with this event was severely limited. Imagine the reactions of the people in shock after the event to hear the news bulletins telling them that their government was crippled and unable to help. The reality is that the claims by the macroeconomists were not ground in any credible theory. It is bad enough they provide this mis-information and lies when unemployment is rising. But when thousands of people are feared dead it is nothing short of being obscene. Earthquake lies – all courtesy of our neo-liberal economist brethren.

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Making profit from lies – isn’t that illegal?

I recall from my days studying law that there were express terms and implied warranties underpinning every contract. The express terms were those agreed between the parties. The implied terms were binding even if they were not discussed between the parties to the sale or deal. I recall that among the usual implied terms were things like quality of the materials used and fitness of purpose. If a product or service is not sold where the seller knows the materials to be of poor quality or will not perform the functions that are held out to the buyer then a civil claim is open in tort to negate the contract and pursue damages. Anyway there are a number of private sector organisations out there that pump out so-called expert economic and financial analysis for profits that if you actually understand the product would lead you to conclude they are fraudulent products and not fit for the purpose that is held out. The ratings agencies (which threatened Japan again this week) fall into that category. But there are others. Today I consider the so-called Fiscal Risk index put out by a British firm that claims that the austerity campaign being pursued by the British government is helping it reduce its risk of bankruptcy. That is an outright lie! I thought that selling dodgy goods and services was illegal.

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Tick tock tick tock – the evidence mounts

I have said it before that when the facts get in the way of mainstream economic theory – which is just about always – the professors (my peers) tell their students that the facts are wrong. They have a pathological obsession with hanging on to their theories. Apart from the arrogance that accompanies this I have never really been able to work it out. As a tenured professor I could overnight become an adherent of the Austrian School or whatever and my job wouldn’t be threatened. A tradesperson who loses his/her skills has a problem. But academic life is different. We can explore new ideas any time we choose and take time to develop the news skills commensurate with these ideas. That, in part, is what research is all about. So it is more about their unwillingness to let go of what are essentially religious beliefs that leads the mainstream economists to constantly pump out rubbish and lie when they are found out (by the facts). The overwhelming fact is that the push for austerity is not based on any evidence-based understanding of how the system works. It is driven by stylised economic models that bear no relation to the real world and fail when confronted with data from the real world. As the clock ticks by – tick tock tick tock – the evidence mounts that nations that introduce austerity fare poorly.

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The conservative agenda is becoming more transparent

I got of a plane this afternoon and learned about the devastation in Christchurch. I am feeling for my NZ colleagues today. I suppose some conservative idiots will claim the NZ government doesn’t have the money to do what is necessary to provide some relief. There is also strife in the Middle East as poverty and unemployment finally combine with a sense that governments in nations in that region are working against people rather than for them. In the UK and the US the governments are no longer working in the best interests of their citizens and public displays of anger are emerging (for example, Wisconsin). While the agenda of the oppressive regimes in the Middle East has always been clear the narratives of the conservatives in the advanced nations has always been hidden by a web of lies often supported by well-paid economists who urge us to accept austerity and deregulation because it will make us all wealthier. They tell us that the textbooks show that. The crisis has demonstrated to all that the textbooks are incapable of saying anything useful about the way the monetary system operates and the policy choices that a government running a fiat currency system has available to them. But as the conservatives are regaining control of the political processes after being shocked into silence in the early days of the crisis, it is clear they are overstepping themselves. They are continually claiming there is a fiscal crisis. But the reality is that their agenda – to crush unions and redistribute real income to capital – is becoming more transparent. That should be exposed by progressives and popular rebellions encouraged.

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The OECD should close and its staff redeployed into productive activities

The now totally discredited OECD has started a special section of their WWW site which they call – Restoring public finances. Many person-hours of labour have gone into its construction and the documents and “analysis” (so-called) that you can access there. They even have an article from ECB boss Jean-Claude Trichet which would be laughable if it wasn’t so damaging (given his influence). The OECD is another of those organisations (such as the IMF) that promoted policy agendas (deregulation etc) which not only entrenched persistently high unemployment during the growth year but also set in place the conditions that ultimately led to the crisis. But like a drunk who sneaks a drink then denies it, the OECD seems incapable of introspection and acknowledging that it is part of the problem not the solution. Its policy agenda caused the crisis. Now it is lecturing the world in aggressive tones about how its policy agenda (unchanged) should be ramped up even more vigorously. My view is that OECD should just close its doors and its staff should be redeployed into productive activities.

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Saturday Quiz – February 12, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Saturday Quiz – February 5, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Deterministic fiscal rules undermine public responsibility

Yesterday I was listening to the ABC Radio National program – Counterpoint – which interviewed author David Freedman about his 2007 co-authored book A Perfect Mess. I was very interested in this book when it was published. It is about the value of mess and the costs that organisational freaks impose on us. In the case of fiscal policy – the essence of good macroeconomic management is to allow policy settings to be responsive when needed. Why? To ensure that government action supports aggregate demand and is consistent with private sector saving desires. The control freaks want to impose “organisation” on governments by legislating debt brakes and this type of organisation amounts to a fundamental denial of the need for fiscal policy to be reactive and flexible. That is, of-course, no surprise given that deterministic fiscal rules are proposed by ideologues that are fundamentally opposed to public intervention in the first place. Deterministic fiscal rules in fact undermine public responsibility.

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Please note: there is no sovereign debt risk in Japan!

Sometimes you read an article that clearly has a pretext but then tries to cover that pretext in some (not) smart way to make the prejudice seem reasonable. That is the impression I had when I read this Bloomberg opinion piece by William Pesek (January 31, 2011) – Pinnacle Envy Signals New Bubble Is Inflating – which I was expecting to be about real estate bubbles but which, in fact, turned out to be an erroneous blather about Japanese debt risk. Please note: there is no sovereign debt risk in Japan!

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Its grim on both sides of the Atlantic

I have been sick today which is rare and have had trouble remaining vertical for very long. So the blog is a little shorter than usual. Just as well the subject matter might have disrupted my recovery. I note the UK economy is being deliberately sabotaged by its elected representatives which seems to conjure up a very weird construction of what we elect governments for. And in that context, the deficit terrorists are ramping up their calls for major fiscal retrenchment in the US. I thought Americans could read English – maybe they missed the British Office of National Statistics National Accounts release – it is pretty obvious – real GDP growth now negative again courtesy of a negative contribution from government in the December quarter. And the terrorists seem to want the same for the US. Its grim on both sides of the Atlantic.

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Sometimes even I cannot believe they could be serious

The stories that are headlined on Page 1 of the New York Times in its on-line edition late January 21, 2011 are almost beyond belief and are like spoofs – if only. I must admit the shock factor is diminishing in this neo-liberal era where the most absurd ideas are brush-stroked up to appear normal. Some time ago I would have just laughed and concluded that some extremist or another was getting a moment of airplay – a day in the sun and would then disappear to a dark room where they would continue writing endless handwritten letters to all and sundry outlining their crackpot ideas and schemes for the renewal of humanity – which always seemed to involve some communist purge (the reds are everywhere you know) and handing over authority to citizen militia’s. But these nutty ideas are gathering pace. It seems the deficit terrorists are getting bored with their predictions of inflation (that doesn’t arrive) or rising interest rates (which do not arrive) – so they have to invent even more bizarre angles. They get so far out there that sometimes even I cannot believe they could be serious.

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Just speak to the truth …

The title of today’s blog comes from a speech given on January 12, 2011 by Richard W. Fisher, boss of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – The Limits of Monetary Policy – which carried the sub-title – Monetary Policy Responsibility Cannot Substitute for Government Irresponsibility. It is a speech littered with ideological assertions parading as sensible public commentary. It will resonate with the deficit terrorists and reinforce the policy agenda that will only make the situation in the US worse not better. The ideas were echoed elsewhere in the world in the last week. Japan is considering hiking tax rates “because they want more private growth and less public net spending”. The (un)truth brigade have thus been out in force in recent days – spreading a litany of lies and falsehoods which only aim to perpetuate their irrational obsession that government economic activity is bad. I only wish they would just speak the truth.

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There is no positive role for the IMF in its current guise

Most of my blogs are about advanced nations. Many of these nations are being plunged back in time by misguided applications of fiscal austerity and even when growth returns they will take a decade or more to get back to the per capita income levels that prevailed prior to the crisis. Many children and teenagers in these nations will be denied essential education, training and workplace experience by the deliberate choice by their governments to entrench long-term unemployment and to starve their economies of jobs growth. But it remains that these nations are not poor in general and while people are losing houses and other items on credit only a small proportion will starve. Not so the poorer nations that I rarely write about. These are the nations where a high proportion of the citizens live below or around the poverty line. These are the nations that are at the behest of the IMF and suffer the most from their erroneous policy interventions. Today I reflect on how those nations have been going during this crisis. The bottom line is that the way the Fund reinvented itself and reimposed itself on the poorer nations after the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1971 has damaged their growth prospects and ensured that millions of people around the world have remained locked in poverty. Along the way … children have died or have failed to receive the levels of public education that any child anywhere deserves. There is no positive role for the IMF in its current guise.

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The dead cat bounce – Latvian style

It is a holiday week in Australia – the cricket is on (not interested); the weather is good and it is virtually impossible to get a tradesperson to fix a new electricity connection. But who am I to complain when our fortunes are compared to the costs being endured in other nations where governments have deliberately followed policy trajectories which are designed to inflict damage on their real economies – in the mistaken belief that TINA rules. TINA (There Is No Alternative) is one of those neo-liberal ploys which hoodwinks citizens into believing that gross damage is better than really gross damage but which is really an agenda for retrenching the welfare state and freeing markets up for further private sector rape. There are alternatives to what is going on at present and it requires much stronger public sector intervention. I was thinking about this today when I was reviewing the latest data from Latvia which is now being held out as the “model” for the rest of Europe to follow. It is clear that eventually growth does return to these ravaged economies but that doesn’t validate the policy approach. It just says that business cycles cycle. The real way of assessing the alternatives is to compare how deep the policy-induced damage becomes and how long it lasts. The neo-liberal austerity line does not look good in that regard.

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Ex-IMF official still lost in the incredulous void

Sometimes ex-IMF officials shed the burden of having been associated with that institution and make a creative contribution to the public debate. More often they do not and continue to perpetuate the errors that underpin almost all of the IMF’s output. If there was ever an institution that has passed its use-by date it is the IMF. Today, ex-IMF Chief Economist Simon Johnson (now at MIT) claimed that the way to assess fiscal sustainability is “whether a country has the political will to raise taxes or cut spending when under pressure from the financial markets”. You can imagine what I thought of that criterion! Not much but it is too late in the year to get really flustered and I have been listening to some pretty good music this afternoon. So for all those readers who have written in saying “doesn’t Johnson have credibility” and “therefore is what he is saying sensible” I have three words – No and No.

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The bankruptcy machine

The so-called architect of the euro monetary system – died recently in Rome. I guess architects like to leave behind objects of style and beauty that also function well. There is a huge debate among architects about form and function and whether ornamentation is functional. Form follows function has been the catch cry of modernists in architecture and I am most familiar with the debate when it is applied to software development (and its architectural characteristics). Anyway, the euro architect has left behind a monetary system that neither has form or function. It is an ugly creation that is increasingly revealing its dysfunction. But try telling that to the EU leadership who have just finished another summit in Brussels, where I suppose the cuisine and setting was sumptuous and the wine was top class. And like all previous summits all that was forthcoming was further political rhetoric about the irreversibility of the euro and the political commitment to defend it. In real terms this translates into imposing a state of more or less permanent unemployment and austerity on millions of Europeans. Eventually the gap between the leader’s rhetoric and the underlying reality will become so wide the system will crumble. But in the meantime the EMU is a bankruptcy machine.

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Falling unemployment is not necessarily good

I have been travelling for most of today and unable to write very much. But there were are few things I penned which might be of interest. I was sent a news report today which appeared in the local Fairfax press and related to yesterday’s ABS release of the detailed labour force estimates by region. This usually garners a lot of regional interest and the estimates are used by politicians, business groups etc to further their own vested interests. Rarely do any of the public statements that are made about this detailed data actually tell an accurate story. The news report in question was a classic case of this. What we should always understand is that the labour force framework is complicated and falling unemployment is not necessarily a good outcome.

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