Sydney Morning Herald journalist Adele Horin article in the SMH today – Here’s a stimulating idea: create jobs – challenges the Federal Government to get it priorities right. She writes:
If employment is the primary concern, there are surer, more direct ways than cash payments to ensure bosses hire rather than fire. If not now, a debate on the hoary old topic of direct job creation may be just around the corner.
Yesterday the Government announced its latest fiscal response to the rapidly worsening economic situation. They will spend $42 billion (mostly in 2009 and into 2010 to shore up aggregate demand. They estimate this will underwrite 90,000 jobs in the economy. That is not new jobs but existing jobs. They also estimate that the unemployment rate will rise to 7 per cent over the coming year which is around 300,000 people extra who will be without work. That will take unemployment towards 850,000 and underemployment will certainly rise in lock-step (already around 600,000) so you see the scale of the deterioration.
However, while I think the package is a step in the right direction, the Government has failed to really target jobs. If the Government had have introduced a Job Guarantee and paid the workers the current national minimum wage (with holiday pay etc) it could have hired 557,000 full-time equivalent workers for around $8.3 billion per year. Where does this figure come from?
In the New York times article (December 26, 2004), from Larry Rohter – Argentina’s Economic Rally Defies Forecasts – it is reported that the Argentinian economy has made a surprising comeback. Rohter writes “When the Argentine economy collapsed in December 2001, doomsday predictions abounded. Unless it adopted orthodox economic policies and quickly cut a deal with its foreign creditors, hyperinflation would surely follow, the peso would become worthless, investment and foreign reserves would vanish and any prospect of growth would be strangled. But three years after Argentina declared a record debt default of more than $100 billion, the largest in history, the apocalypse has not arrived. Instead, the economy has grown by 8 percent for two consecutive years, exports have zoomed, the currency is stable, investors are gradually returning and unemployment has eased from record highs – all without a debt settlement or the standard measures required by the International Monetary Fund for its approval.”
In the New York Times, December 27, Brent Staples explains – Why Some Politicians Need Their Prisons to Stay Full – and outlines how public spending can clearly be a tool for essential job creation underpinning regional development. The problem is that it seems the Americans haven’t quite got it right.
This is the second part of a short series of briefing notes that arose out of discussions I had in London the week before last about how a progressive political party might want to break out of the shackles that the Labour Party has bound itself in with its obsession with fiscal rules and an adherence to the fiscal fictions of mainstream macroeconomics. In the first part, I suggested a way forward was to shift the focus of what can be done with fiscal policy away from financial matters towards an emphasis on real resource constraints – that is, what productive resources are available for public use. In this sense, the discussion becomes focused on how much nominal spending growth is possible without sparking inflationary pressures as a result of nominal spending growth outstripping the productive capacity of the economy. In Part 2, I will focus on aspects of the institutional structure that should be considered to support that shift in focus.
It is true that all big cities have areas of poverty that is visible from the streets. But I am always a bit shocked when I travel to London, where I am currently working, because the inequality is very obvious. As I work more on the degrowth, decolonisation project that I am currently involved in, one thing becomes paramount. An overwhelming proportion of the total fossil fuel energy usage is due to the consumption of the wealthiest households. And to dramatically reduce our ecological footprint will require dramatically reducing the capacity of the top end of the income and wealth distributions to consume energy. However, all the trends are moving against that requirement. Here are some notes on that topic.
I am late today because I am writing this in London after travelling the last 24 hours. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (February 19, 2026) – Labour Force, Australia – for January 2026 – which showed that the labour market was essentially steady in that employment kept pace with supply, and the participation rate was stable. There was some shuffling within total employment to full-time jobs, with a rather large fall in part-time work. Notwithstanding that fact, underemployment still rose. It remains a fact that with 10 per cent of available labour not being used it is ludicrous to talk about Australia being close to full employment. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.
In the annals of ruses used to provoke fear in the voting public about government deficits, central bank currency issuance, and fiscal activism, the experience of Germany in the 1920s was a long-standing favourite, that could be wheeled out on demand and have immediate effect. Wheelbarrows full of money being pushed to the local bakery to buy the daily bread, etc. It was a very effective vehicle for advancing the interests of the ruling class because it created a political brake on government action to reduce poverty and maintain full employment. More recently, Zimbabwe became the vehicle. It was equally effective even though it, like the Weimar ruse, was largely based on fiction. Even more recently, we have a new ‘ruse on the block’, the so-called ‘Truss Moment’, which is particularly effective in the UK. The current Labour government is petrified to do anything that might resemble a Labour government because they have a deep-seated paranoid ideation that the ‘City’ is out to get them, and the ‘Truss Moment’ is used as the summary event that apparently justify that delusion. They might have looked to the East, to Japan, to see why the ‘Truss Moment’ was about something quite different to the popular narrative that accompanies the mention of the ill-fated few months in British politics.
I will be working in the UK from February 19 to February 28, 2026. I have a range of activities mostly of a non-public nature ranging from meetings with publishers, a meeting with Jeremy Corbyn, and some other research-related meetings. I will also be speaking at the launch of the new Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) focused group in the UK – MMTUK Policy Research Group – on February 25, 2026 in inner London. I hope to see as many of the MMT crowd as possible at the launch (see details below).
These notes will serve as part of a briefing document that I will send off to some interested parties in Japan. Japan is about to go to the poll for a snap national election on February 8. The recently installed Prime Minister, Ms Takaichi is betting that her recent solid showing in the polls will allow her to capture more seats in the Diet and reduce or even eliminate her dependency on the ‘uncomfortable’ coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) aka Ishin. That coalition was formed after Mr Ishiba, the previous PM, also bet on a snap election result, which saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) go backwards (losing 68 seats) and the coalition partner Komeito also lose seats. Together the ruling coalition lost its majority in the National Diet (for the first time since 2009) and Shigeru Ishiba’s popularity began to evaporate. The background to that loss was a major political funding scandal among the Cabinet ministers and the election result signalled that the Japanese people had seemingly had enough of the corruption at the top. Ms Takaichi took over after Mr Ishiba could no longer sustain his position as PM. The old coalition between the LDP and Komeito fell apart because the Buddhist Komeito could no longer stomach the new PMs imperialist ideology nor her unwillingness to deal with he insidious corruption in her party. This forced Ms Takaichi to forge a new coalition – hence the rather unlikely pairing with Ishin, which is a right wing populist party espousing neoliberal economic policies. The government is proposing a major fiscal expansion but the debate during the campaign that is now underway is very confused. The confusion arises because all the main players keep wheeling out mainstream economic arguments that tie them up into nonsensical policy proposals.
Today (January 22, 2026), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data – Labour Force, Australia – for December 2025 – which showed a relatively strong increase in employment and the rising participation rate – both good signs. Taken together the demand-side of the labour market outstripped the growth in the working age population and, as a result, unemployment fell. The increase in employment was concentrated on full-time employment, which meant that working hours rose and underemployment fell significantly. However, the reality is that it is nonsensical to argue that Australia is close to full employment.
My friend Alan Kohler, who is the finance presenter at the ABC, wrote an interesting article today about AI (January 19, 2026) - AI platforms like Grok are an ethical, social and economic nightmare — and we're starting to wake…
I have closely followed the progress of India’s – Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) – since its inception on September 7, 2005. The scheme has been a major success in reducing rural poverty and providing income security to poor rural communities in India. It has also reduced the so-called ‘desperation migration’ from the rural areas to the already crowded and dysfunctional urban areas. And, the work produced massive community benefits – infrastructure, amenities, etc. The neoliberals in India have always hated the scheme. PM Narendra Modi has long railed against it. Now, finally, they have repealed the governing legislation and replaced it with a new Act that scraps the employment guarantee and puts a fiscal straitjacket on the remaining job creation opportunities. Neoliberals 1, the Indian poor 0.
I grew up in a society where collective will was at the forefront and it is true to say people looked out for each other. The state – at all levels – had various policy structures in place to provide levels of economic protection for the least advantaged members of society. Having grown up in a poor family, those structures were important in allowing me to stay at school and then go onto to university. It also allowed my friends on the housing commission estate (state housing) who had different skills (not academic) to get apprenticeships and build careers that gave them material security in that way. It wasn’t a perfect period – there was racism, misogyny, and xenophobia – but as mass education spread, my generation left a lot of that behind. I was thinking about that when I read the recent article by Robert Reich in the UK Guardian (December 29, 2026) – Americans are waking up. A grand reckoning awaits us – which carried a resonance of some of the things that I have seen emerge in Australia as well as this 4-decade or so neoliberal nightmare reaches some sort of denouement.
Well my holiday is over. Not that I had one! This morning we submitted the manuscript to the publisher for the Second Edition of our Macroeconomics text, which will come out later this year. Finishing a massive project like that is always non-linear – the last few months are hideous – checking everything and filling gaps. Anyway, that was the Xmas break. And as the New Year starts, one always hopes that humanity learns from the mistakes of the previous year. In economics, though, that is the hope of the forlorn. I read this morning’s Japan Times newspaper and lo and behold there are predictions of dire consequences as a result of the current Cabinet decision to shift focus away from pursuing a primary fiscal surplus to massaging the public debt ratio. The mainstream economists are arguing about the relative virtues of each and forecasting gloom. The reality is that neither target is worth attention. Meanwhile, the privatised rail companies are negotiating with communities for the closure of certain rail segments because they are loss making. All that discussion is about costs per passenger km, rather than satisfaction gained from bringing people together. The priorities are all wrong.
I have limited time today to write a blog post and last night I was sent a new video that I recently recorded with my research colleague at Kyoto University, Professor Fujii where we talk for some hours on the topic – Japan at a Crossroads: Fiscal Policy, China, and the Growth. It was a conversation we had via Zoom that was recorded on Friday, December 5, 2025. We reflect on recent developments in Japan and its relationship with other major countries (US, China, etc) and consider the policy challenges facing the new Takaichi Cabinet. It is a very long session. The transcript was generated by YouTube AI I believe and then edited and is not perfect. A lot of unnecessary aspects are edited out and the latter part of the transcript is really just an AI summary. But I think the record is acceptable. At times, the discussion changed from English to Japanese, where there was some ambiguity in terminology etc, and those segments have been cut from the transcript. I put in timestamps during the transcript to help you zoom into topics of interest. I hope you find something useful in our long discussion.
I haven’t provided detailed commentary on the US labour market for a while now. To some extent the month-to-month changes are not that interesting but after a lapse, discernible trends can be detected. The US President is about to give a national address today in the context of declining poll popularity and a series of negative trends emerging. His constant narrative that everything is great and America has never been so soundly governed (by him!) is finally starting to come up against the reality of data, which has been masked a little by the government shutdown, which meant that key statistics were not published in a timely manner or are being published late. The labour market data has been so affected and the most recent release by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last Tuesday (December 16 , 2025) – Employment Situation Summary – November 2025 – shows a deteriorating situation and negates the political bombast coming from the President and his cronies.
I should remind myself not to listen to the media (even the public broadcaster) when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the latest labour force data – Labour Force, Australia – for November 2025 – as it did today (December 11, 2025). The commentary immediately after that data release today was the exemplification of mainstream massaging of the truth. The ABC had some bank economist on telling the nation that the data showed that Australia was operating above capacity (over full employment) and interest rates would have to rise further to discipline inflation. He didn’t mention that his corporation would benefit from such rate rises via increased profits. He also failed to tell the listeners that while unemployment remained stable at 4.3 per cent (only because participation fell in the face of falling employment), underemployment rose further to 6.2 per cent (up 0.4 points), and the broad labour underutilisation rate rose to 10.5 per cent – think about that – 10.5 per cent of available and willing labour in Australia and this so-called expert thinks that is full employment requires unemployment to rise at least a further 0.2 points. Meaning is lost and neoliberal ideology and corporate-speak replaces it. Disgusting. The interviewer was also terrible and should be sacked for his mistakes and failure to hold the ‘expert’ to account. Such is the national broadcaster in Australia these days. The reality is that it is nonsensical to argue that Australia being close to full employment. Without the fall in the participation rate, the official unemployment rate would have been 4.63 per cent rather than its current official value of 4.3 per cent. The labour market is considerably weaker in November and there is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.
I am travelling a lot today so I am typing this up in between segments. I met a journalist in Tokyo on Friday and we discussed various matters relating to the current policy debate in Japan. In addition, we discussed the latest situation for the Japanese banking sector and the fact that they are recording record levels of net profits almost across the board, but particularly for the three mega banks, and it might surprise readers when they learn the source of those profits. It is actually quite scandalous but demonstrates the bind that the Bank of Japan now finds itself in – of its own doing, while being cheered on by mainstream economists, several of which are probably receiving lucrative consulting income from the very same banks.