Administrative announcements

Underlying inflation in Australia continues to decline

Today (November 27, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest – Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator – for November 2024, which showed that the annual underlying inflation rate, which excludes volatile items continues to fall – from 3.5 per cent to 3.2 per cent. The overall CPI rate (including the volatile items) rose slightly from 2.1 per cent to 2.3 per cent, but that was mostly due to the timing of government electricity rebates between October and November. In other words, the slight rise cannot be interpreted as signalling a renewed inflationary spiral is underway. All the indicators are suggesting inflation is declining and the major drivers are abating. The overall rate has been at the lower end of the RBA’s inflation targetting range (2 to 3 per cent) for four successive months now, yet the RBA continues to claim they fear a wages breakout and that unemployment needs to increase. The RBA has gone rogue and its public statements bear little relationship with reality. It is clear that the residual inflationary drivers are not the result of excess demand but rather reflect transitory factors like weather events, institutionally-driven price adjustments (such as indexation arrangements), and abuse of anti-competitive, corporate power. The general conclusion is that the global factors that drove the inflationary pressures have largely resolved and that the outlook for inflation is for continued decline. There is also evidence that the RBA has caused some of the persistence in the inflation rate through the impact of the interest rate hikes on business costs and rental accommodation.

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Video of Australian book launch of ‘Modern Monetary Theory: Bill and Warren’s Excellent Adventure’

It’s Wednesday and as usual I am writing about a few issues rather than providing a detailed analysis of a specific issue. Today, I publish the video of Australian launch of our new book – Modern Monetary Theory: Bill and Warren’s Excellent Adventure. I also comment on the current situation in the Middle East and finish with some great music from the rather odd collaboration between Oscar Peterson and Stéphane Grappelli in the early 1970s.

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Recent and upcoming elections tell us a lot about how far gone the global order is

It’s Wednesday and I am flat out finishing things today as I am off to Japan again to work once again at Kyoto University. I will keep you updated on the progress of that work and a public event that we are thinking about in November in Kyoto (or possibly Tokyo or both). For now a few thoughts on current political happenings and some administrative matters.

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British House of Lords Debt Report starts with false premises and then just repeats conventional fictions

On Tuesday (September 10, 2024), the UK House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee released their first report for the Session 2024-25 (HL Paper 5) – National debt: it’s time for tough decisions – which was the result of their decision to hold an inquiry – How sustainable is our national debt? – into whether “UK’s national debt is on a sustainable path” and whether “the Government’s fiscal rule regarding the national debt is meaningful”. They didn’t need a large-scale investigation to come up with answers to those questions: Yes and Not meaningful- are my answers based on the reality of the currency status of the British government.

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Australian inflation rate falling rapidly

Today (August 28, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest – Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator – for July 2024, which showed that the annual inflation rate has fallen from 3.8 per cent in June to 3.5 per cent in July, a significant decline which continues the downward trend. That trend has been interrupted over the last few years by transitory factors like weather events but it is clear there is not an excessive spending situation present in the Australian economy, which should end all talk of even more aggressive monetary policy (within the mainstream logic). The monthly inflation rate was zero in July even if we look at the All Groups CPI excluding volatile items (which are items that fluctuate up and down regularly due to natural disasters, sudden events like OPEC price hikes, etc). The general conclusion is that the global factors that drove the inflationary pressures are resolving and that the outlook for inflation is for continued decline. There is also evidence that the RBA has caused some of the persistence in the inflation rate through the impact of the interest rate hikes on business costs and rental accommodation.

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We are 1.7 times over regenerative capacity and the world’s population control must be reduced

It’s Wednesday and so a few topics that have interested me over the last week plus some promotion etc. I have been going back in time lately re-reading some of the classic books that spawned the environmental movements in the 1970s. At that time, researchers were predicting doom because they foresaw that the population growth was becoming excessive and outstripping the capacity of the world to regenerate itself. Many of the leading offerings of the day were heavily criticised not only because they were inherently (as a matter of logic) opposed to capitalism. Ironically, the Left also refused to take up population control type advocacy because they considered it coercive and biased against the poor. They preferred to argue about redistribution rather than degrowth. The Left’s credibility now in that regard is rather in tatters and unless the progressive elements in the environmental movement return to a focus on reducing population growth the game will be up. I am researching those issues at present.

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