Australian National Accounts – GDP growth in decline, expect unemployment to rise – courtesy RBA sabotage
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, December 2022 – today (March 1, 2023), which shows that the Australian economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the December-quarter 2022 and by 2.7 per cent over the 12 months. This is a significant decline in growth, which is now insufficient to prevent unemployment from rising over the coming period. Growth is being driven largely by continued (but moderating) growth in household spending. This was augmented by the strong rebound in the Terms of Trade (commodity prices), which helped net exports make a positive growth contribution. There was growth in employee compensation (the wage measure from the national accounts) of 3.2 per cent but that was largely due to administrative decisions (for example, minimum wage increases) that impacted in this quarter rather than being the result of market pressures. Households are now saving less relative to their disposable income in an effort to maintain consumption growth in the face of rising interest rates and temporary inflationary pressures. I expect growth to decline further and we will be left with rising unemployment and declining household wealth as a result of the RBA’s poor judgement.