Memo: US Treasury – E-mail me for my bank details

I saw a bit of the recent US Republican candidates’ debate. It was extremely boring to say the least. If that field is the best conservative America can muster and Obama is the best the conservatives who think they are progressives can muster then que dieu nous aide. I thought the policy discussion from the candidates in the debate were woeful and I longed for Sarah Palin to walk in and say something sensible. But one influential commentator did find something rather interesting and pleasing about the debate. In this Wall Street Journal article (June 16, 2011) – Republicans Return to Reality – Peggy Noonan tells us that the GOP has at least demonstrated a new sobriety when it comes to policy. The reason? Read on. But my reaction is to draft a memo to the US Treasury – headline – E-mail me for my bank details.

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British labour market deteriorating

I have very little spare time to write my blog today so this will truly be brief. Amidst all the riots in Athens as the Eurozone farce descents further into the mire, the UK Labour Force data came out yesterday (June 15, 2011). There are some who are saying that the data presents good news. A closer examination reveals nothing of the sort. Others are claiming that there isn’t really a problem of unemployment in Britain because the unemployed are largely unemployable. That is a familiar refrain after a deep recession as the labour market struggles to keep pace with the underlying population growth. The conservatives always try to redefine what we might call full employment and claim that a much higher unemployment rate is now indicative of full capacity. The same game is being played out in Australia where despite unemployment and underemployment totally 12.2 per cent at present the Reserve Bank governor had the audacity to claim there were not that many spare labour resources (like 1.3 million odd workers don’t count any more).

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It is always better to tell the truth

The Austrians are lying about my country. They generally lie about everything but when it comes to my own nation of which I know the data very well then something has to be done. Today I examine the claim by some Austrians out there that the Reserve Bank of Australia cannot unilaterally create $A dollar credits in the banking system (for example, add to bank reserves) without first holding American dollars (or for that matter any currency). The claim is totally nonsensical but you need to first understand how central banks operate and then form an accurate view of the historical record to understand why. But when it comes to using publicly available data that other “experts” know very well – it is always better to tell the truth. I am on a bit of a truth theme over the last week.

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The time has come to tell the American people the truth

On May 17, 2011, the US Social Security Trustees Report and the US Medicare Trustees Report were released. The releases set the conservative deficit terrorists into a tail spin. They would have been better making a nice cup of tea, relaxing with a book and generally chilling out. In fact, the most interesting part of the US government’s Social Security Administration Home Page seems to be its Popular Baby Names search engine which allows you to plug in a name and find out how popular it has been over x years and its ranking by the year. My parents chose a name for me that remains popular. I don’t know whether that is good or bad. But playing around with that little toy is much better fun than reading the Trustees’ Report and the resulting hysteria in the media. The point is that these Trust Funds are just elaborate accounting smokescreens that ultimately mean nothing if one comprehends the financial capacity of the US government. They represent a case of a government creating a farcical structure to administer some program and then elevating the structure to a false level of importance that actually leads them to introduce policies which undermine the initial purpose of the program – and all without any basis. The time has come to tell the American people the truth.

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Americans are stupid but they are not alone

I have been travelling the last few days and while sitting at the airport on my way home I have been catching up on all the snippets of text and links I accumulate each day. While the current generations are living through the “digital revolution” we should not forget that 50 odd years ago humans went to the Moon – which at the time was an ingenious demonstration of our capacity for technological marvel. The motives for this feat which were tied up in the Cold War paranoia were clearly suspect but I recall at the time as a young high school student, as all the classrooms were mustered in a TV viewing room to watch the landing, that we are a clever lot. I no longer think that.

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Low pay workers dudded again in Australia

On Friday (June 3, 2011) Fair Work Australia which is the body that formally sets the minimum wage in Australia handed down its Annual Wage Review 2010-11 decision. The Minimum Wage Panel of FWA released its second Annual Wage Review under the Fair Work Act 2009 and awarded minimum wage workers an additional $19.40 per week which amounted to a 3.5 per cent rise. With inflation running around the same rate or higher, the decision fails to provide for a real wage increase especially given productivity growth is running at around 1.5 per cent at present. The decision will apply over from July 1, 2011 to June 30, 2012. The decision further cements the real wage losses that low-paid workers have endured over the decade and is not sufficient to arrest the deterioration of low-pay outcomes relative to average earnings in the economy.

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When the elites wine and dine together and hand out prizes to each other

What I learned studying history at university about Charlemagne I have mostly forgotten other than the broad brush of his historical presence. I know where he is buried because his Frankish home base was Aachen on the extreme west of Germany bordering with the Netherlands. I have spent a lot of time in that area (given my association with the University of Maastricht) and have visited the cathedral that houses his grave. What I can recall is that he was a Christian imperialist who forcibly imposed “Germanic” rule on most of what is now Western Europe. But while he largely restored the old “Holy Roman empire”, this “unity” did not last long after his rule ended. That is, he dramatically failed to embed a lasting unity. I think it is appropriate then that yesterday, the President of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, was awarded the famous The Karlspreis which is in honour of Charlemagne. The Germans think it is about unity or at least that is what they claim it is about. The other analogy with Charlemagne is that just as he sought to impose his religious views on the “heathens”, Trichet is also seeking to impose another religion on the people of Europe – neo-liberalism. It is a religion that has failed to provide succour to those who have had to endure it. It works well for the “priests” as all religion seem to. But it is imposing harshness and calamity on the rest. Anyway, in Aachen yesterday, it was another one of those days when the elites wine and dine well together and hand out prizes to each other.

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The US is living below its "means"

The US press was awash with claims over the weekend that the US was “living beyond” its “means” and that “will not be viable for a whole lot longer”. One senior US central banker claimed that the way to resolve the sluggish growth was to increase interest rates to ensure people would save. Funny, the same person also wants fiscal policy to contract. Another fiscal contraction expansion zealot. Pity it only kills growth. Another commentator – chose, lazily – to be the mouthpiece for the conservative lobby and wrote a book review that focused on the scary and exploding public debt levels. Apparently, this public debt tells us that the US is living beyond its means. Well, when I look at the data I see around 16 per cent of available labour idle in the US and capacity utilisation rates that are still very low. That tells me that there is a lot of “means” available to be called into production to generate incomes and prosperity. A national government doesn’t really have any “means”. It needs to spend to get hold off the means (production resources). Given the idle labour and low capacity utilisation rates the government in the US is clearly not spending enough. The US is currently living well below its means. But the US government can always buy any “means” that are available for sale in US dollars and if there is insufficient demand for these resources emanating from the non-government sector then the US government can bring those idle “means” into productive use any time it chooses.

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The IMF needs a budget deficit-biased head

Let Peter Costello work his magic at IMF – mounted a case for our former Treasurer (one of the worst this country has ever had) should get the baton and head to Washington. The problem is that Costello left a destructive mess in his wake and is a budget surplus obsessive. What the IMF needs is a budget deficit-biased head.

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I'll buy the Acropolis

Sell, Sell, Sell – which referred to renewed calls for an even more expansive privatisation program in Greece than is already under way. The initial program of asset sales was projected to net more than 20 per cent of GDP in funds. But now the EU bosses want more. There appears to a group denial in Europe at present which is being reinforced by the IMF and the OECD and other organisations. They seem to be incapable of articulating the reality that if you savagely cut government spending while private spending is going backwards and the external sector is not picking up the tab then the economy will tank. Under those conditions policies that aim to cut the budget deficit will ultimately fail. But in the meantime the reason we manage economies – to improve the real lives of people – are undermined and living standards plummet and the distribution of income and wealth move firmly in favour of the rich. But if the price is right I’ll buy the Acropolis (and give it back to the people)!

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Reality check for the austerians

Individuals often carry history on their shoulders by virtue of the positions they hold and the actions they take. When these individuals hold views about the economy that are not remotely in accord with the way the system operates yet can influence economic policy by disregarding evidence then things become problematic. It is no surprise that my principle concern when it comes to economics is how we can keep unemployment and underemployment low. That was the reason I became an economist in the late 1970s, when unemployment sky-rocketed in Australia and has been relatively high ever since. So when I read commentary which I know would worsen unemployment (levels or duration) if the opinion was influential I feel the need to contest it. That has been my motivation in economics all my career. A daily contest given that the mainstream of my profession is biased to keeping unemployment and underemployment higher than it otherwise has to be. Today I present a simple reality check for the austerians.

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Hot News: Navy SEALs stake out US building

Restoring Fiscal Sanity in the United States: A Way Forward. Essentially, the article is a non-article but a sign-up page to access a speech of the same title by David M. Walker, former top public accountant in the US (Comptroller General) which apparently makes him qualified to speak about monetary systems. The speech is full of nonsense but it gave me some insights into what seems to be unfolding in the national capital over there in America. While I was at the airport today I heard some very sensational news – Navy SEALs stake out US building! Perhaps I am the first to blog about this development. Twitter universe – where are you?

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Vignettes of madness

It is the Easter holidays and I am not writing as much today. But there have been some stunning examples of how mad the world has become with respect to matters economic. I present three vignettes of such madness which highlight the way in which lies and outright lies are dominating the policy agendas of governments at the expense of workers and their families. It is also raining outside and getting cooler so good weather for sitting down and writing – holiday notwithstanding.

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Saturday Quiz – April 23, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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