I am still in Darwin today and have limited time to write. It seems, however, that the Euro bosses have gone all growth on us. For non-English speakers – going all growth on us – is terrible slang meaning are they becoming enamoured with the idea that growth is important. Apparently, austerity is “so yesterday”, if not “last week” and the mantra is now about “growth compacts”. Forget the fiscal compact which most of the EU states have signed up for which if realised will drive their economies into the ground so harsh are the proposed rules on budgets and public debt. Now there is a growth compact proposal – which Mario has suggested Europe follows. Angie is right in behind him – has Madame Austerity – has gone all growth on us too?. It has been a bad week for the Troika (IMF, ECB, EU) – what with the UK now officially in a double-dip due to the deliberate strategy of its government (emulating the EMU) and across the Channel, the impending success of François Hollande is now becoming obvious. Merkoz will now have to morph into Mollande. And while on “olland”, the Dutch government also collapsed as a direct result of the backlash over the fiscal austerity. Apparently, the likely new French president is not particularly keen to join the fiscal austerity conga line although all his public statements to date would suggest he is committed to the SGP principles. So what is this all about? Are the Euro bosses going “all growth on us”? Answer: there will be no “growth compact” other than in the title of some EU Summit paper. The growth spin is mounting but the EU elites remain firmly wedded to doing everything they can to undermine growth.

I had an interesting meeting in Melbourne yesterday and the topic of the discussion, among other things, was the propensity of the current economic malaise in Europe to invoke associations with its historical past – in particular, the rise of the ugly German. In my blog earlier this week (January 30, 2012) – Greece to leave the Eurozone and become a German colony – one might have been tempted to conclude that I was invoking memories of the Germany’s annexation of Austria (the Anschluss). I even used the word Teutonic – a rather old-fashioned term for Germanic peoples (broadly) – in the phrase “My how audacious our Teutonic friends have become!”. This was in a discussion about the leaked German document which urged the EU Summit on Monday to effectively put Greece into receivership. But in fact, what I have been at pains to bring to the public debate is not an urging that we construct the current nasty statements from German politicians and its press about lazy Greeks etc in terms of these historical enmities but rather see them for what they really are – deeply flawed macroeconomic reasoning. A thorough understanding of macroeconomics would lead to the conclusion that the German model is not workable for the Eurozone. It will not help Germany nor anyone else. It is a deeply flawed economic doctrine that reflects the same neo-liberal ideology that led to the the original design of the European Monetary Union. Whether the “ugly German” is also implicated is another question altogether.

I was reading the recently published January 2012 Monthly Bulletin from the ECB yesterday. It provides a massive amount of interesting data about the developments in the Eurozone plus analysis. The descriptive analysis is fine (this went up, this went down) but the conceptual analysis leaves a lot to be desired. This is an institution that still talks about reference values of broad money as a policy target to control inflation. Basically, that idea has no application in our monetary system. But that aside, the release of the latest M3 data tells us how bad things are getting in the Eurozone and do not augur well for the coming year, despite the up-beat forecasts for real GDP that the ECB are still providing. The latest ECB data shows how bad things have become in Euroland.

The Euro leaders are having another Summit in Brussels today – another one – the 17th in two years. I think they are getting used to the nice wine and sumptuous food that is served up. Little ever comes from these summits that is of any productive import. This time they plan to set in concrete balanced budget rules to be embedded into the national legislation of EU member states yet at the same time propose job creation and growth strategy. The job creation strategy is allegedly going to focus on the youth of Europe who are becoming unemployed and excluded in increasing numbers as time goes by. The lunacy is that Europe’s youth started losing their jobs some years ago yet the leaders are now expressing concern. Also over the weekend, there was a leaked German proposal for today’s summit detailing how Greece should leave the Eurozone and become a German colony. My how audacious our Teutonic friends have become!

The current Eurozone crisis is getting worse and has concentrated our minds on the most recent period of European history. As in all these situations where focus is very immediate our memories get a little blurred and we are inclined to accept propositions that closer analysis of the data suggest do not hold water. January 1 was the tenth anniversary of the date when Euro notes and coins began to circulate. It had of-course been operating since January 1, 1999 but only in a non-physical form (electronic transfers etc). If you believe the rhetoric from the Euro bosses in the first several years of the Euro history and didn’t know anything else you would be excused for thinking that it was a spectacular success. The Celtic Tiger, the Spanish miracle, the unprecedented price stability and all the rest of it. But the reality is a little different to the hype. The fact is that the common currency did not deliver the dividends that were expected or touted by the leaders leading up to the crisis. All the so-called gains that the pro-Euro lobby claim were in actual fact a sign of the failure of the design of the union although it took the crisis to expose these terminal weaknesses for all to see. My view is that the Euro was failing from day one and it would be better to disband it as a failed experiment that has caused untold damage to the human dimension.

Yesterday (December 26, 2012), the French Ministère du Travail, de l’Emploi et de la Santé (Ministry of Labour, Employment and Health) released the latest labour market data for November 2011 which showed that the number of people seeking jobs (demandeurs d’emploi) had risen sharply in the last month. The data shows that the Euro malaise is now penetrating the core large economies in the Eurozone as the impacts of fiscal austerity spreads. It is interesting that the continued fiscal support in the US which is only surviving because the politicians have created a temporary impasse is seeing unemployment falling whereas the trend is now in reverse in the Eurozone. The neo-liberal infested Euro bosses are proving to be much more adept at destroying their economies than their counterparts across the Atlantic.

The message to be drawn from this blog is that the dithering Euro bosses have done it again. Amidst all the bluster about stability and moving forward together all they have done last week (at the EU Summit) was further undermine the prospects of their region. The new rules that have seemingly been agreed upon will not be achievable and will generate even more financial instability as growth deteriorates further. In early 1968, amidst all the lunacy of the Vietnam War, an American general told a New Zealand reporter that the US decision to bomb a town full of civilians into oblivion was based on the logic that “It became necessary to destroy the town to save it”. Last week’s (December 9, 2011) – Statement by the Euro area Heads of State or Government – invokes that sort of logic except in this case the brutality is of a different degree and style. Neither action was justified in the circumstances that the decision-makers faced.

I woke up to the headlines this morning about the apparently failed German bond tender yesterday and all the experts predicting doom. In my E-mail box there was around 30 requests for an explanation from readers who had read the news and concluded that it was a major event in the current crisis but didn’t really understand what the implications were. The implications are fairly simple – the bond markets are working out that no EMU government is free of insolvency risk because they all use a foreign currency (the Euro). Germany is better placed to resist the crisis because of the relative strength of its economy but it is not immune from it. Its economy will also deteriorate as the effects of austerity spread out through trade. While the “experts” waxed lyrical about the crisis being confined to profligate EMU states (the PIIGS), it was always clear that the northern strong-hold states were going to be dragged in as the crisis deepened. That is because the problem is the Euro itself and the way the monetary system is designed. All the other emotional stuff about lazy Greeks is a sideshow. Germany is starting to find that out – yesterday, it received its first strong message. The crisis is going right to the top in Europe now.

As they say in the classics – “some of my best friends are” … and in my case I might have added German. The Euro crisis – that is, the crisis that has arisen because the creation of the Euro stripped member nations of their capacity to defend their economies against negative private spending episodes – is being worsened because of the incredible resistance by Germany and the Troika (EU, ECB, IMF). The Brussels-Frankfurt consensus – which claimed the creation of the Eurozone would engender stability and growth is shattered – irretrievably humiliated one might venture to say – yet the cabal that hides behind that “consensus” maintains power and influence. The hypocrisy that the cabal engage in is staggering. Their narrative is almost totally dislocated from the reality. They regularly disregard their own rules to favour the vested interests that keep them in power. And meanwhile, they are overseeing a collapse of all the ideals they claimed their system was designed to achieve.

When a democratic government fails to deliver on its promises it typically gets tossed out of office by the voters at the next election. Sometimes it takes a few elections for the rot to set in once it becomes clear that the strategy for the nation is not working. Yesterday, the European Union put out its – European Economic Forecast – Autumn 2011 – which categorically demonstrates that after 3 years of crisis and one grand plan after another the leadership is failing. Some of the leadership tokens – the Greek and Italian prime ministers have been pushed aside – but not by the people – rather by the cabal that rules Europe. The situation will worsen while this lot hold the power.

Over the last week or so I have been in Europe and talking to all sorts of people. In the streets the decay is clear and I am in a relatively rich part of Europe (Maastricht). Unsold properties are multiplying and the there are lots of shopping space vacant in the main centres. It is very apparent to me but when I ask people about this some express surprise – not having noticed it themselves. I concede that when you come here once a year you note the changes but the reality is fairly stark. If we put this anecdotal evidence together with the way in which the Euro bosses are behaving and the overall quality of the policy debate in Europe at present it is clear to me that there is a great sense of denial in Europe. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Germany. Their growth model has failed and must change. But it will be very difficult to achieve the sort of national awareness that will render that change possible. The Eurozone was always going to fall apart as a result of its basic design flaws from its inception. But the German strategy – which they consider to be a source of national pride – actually ensured that once the basic design flaws were exposed by the collapse of aggregate demand, things would be much worse than otherwise.

Regular readers will note that I have consistently advocated the abandonment of the Euro and especially the immediate exit of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy to push things along. The basic design flaws in the ideologically-constructed monetary union were always going to bring it down. It wasn’t a matter of if but when. The when was always going to be the first major negative aggregate demand shock that the union experienced. Come 2008 we saw very starkly how quickly the region unravelled and now the situation is getting worse not better. Not many commentators agreed with me and most argued that with some tinkering and some harsh austerity the zone could rescue itself. The problem is basic though and has little to do with behaviour of the member states, although I will write tomorrow how the conduct of the Germans has exacerbated the crisis. It is clear that governments like Spain were more frugal than Germany’s government prior to the crisis and they now have 20 per cent unemployment and worse. As the crisis deepens though more commentators are now arguing for a Greek default and/or both default and exit. The sooner the southern states get out of the bind they are and free of the pernicious ideology of the EU/IMF/ECB troika the better. Tomorrow is not a day too soon.