I checked my calendar today thinking I must be a few months out. Upon checking I determined that it wasn’t April 1. So what the hell is going on? I refer to the announcement of a senior appointment at the World Bank. They have just appointed to the role of Vice President and Treasurer the former Lehman Brothers Global Head of Risk Policy who then was Lehman’s Global Head of Market Risk Management as they sailed into bankruptcy. Hilarious. As the Twitter-verse noted – Did they also interview Bernie Madoff? Anyway, I saw this news piece come in as I was studying the 81st Annual Report 2010/11 of the Bank of International Settlements – the central bank of the central banks – which was released yesterday (June 26, 2011). My conclusion: BIS = BS – the I is gone and used to stand for integrity

I gave a talk about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) today at a workshop on Stock-Flow consistent macroeconomics organised at the University of Newcastle by the economics group here. While I hold the research chair in Economics at this university I am not formally part of the economics group – my affiliation is with my research centre (CofFEE) which stands outside the Department/Faculty structure. So it was good to interact with the economics group. It is coincidental because the things I was talking about were being played out in the US and elsewhere (for example, Greece). The US conservatives are now pushing hard for a balanced budget amendment to the US Constitution. If they understood economics they would never consider doing that. If they succeed they will undermine US prosperity forever. It is a case of ignorance undermining prosperity which really describes a lot of what is going on at present in the public debates.

Overnight, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest Mass Layoffs data (May 2011) which showed that the number of mass layoff events in May increased by 2 percent. Further, another month went by and the US national unemployment rate remained unchanged at (a very high) 9.1 percent. There is very little happening to reduce it and the omens are bad. Also yesterday the US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates on hold in the 0 to 1/4 per cent range indefinitely and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its 2011 Long-Term Budget Outlook. The statements accompany the central banks decision by its Chairperson Ben Bernanke about long-run fiscal problems and the very aggressive message in the CBO Outlook suggest that the politicians will continue to retard the US economic recovery and lock millions into entrenched unemployment and poverty. The US leaders are sure making a mess of things and the advice they are getting is appalling. The omens are clear – aggregate demand growth is desperately required to attack unemployment. But the land of the free is sliding further into oppression – self-induced by its political class.

In yesterday’s blog, I mentioned that Paul Krugman gave a plenary lecture over the weekend just gone at a conference held at Cambridge University. The conference – 75th Anniversary of Keynes’ General Theory – seems to have been a remarkable event. First, I don’t know everything but I always know when there is a major “Keynesian/Post Keynesian” conference and sometimes I even go. In the case of the 75th Anniversary conference I didn’t even know it was being held. It seems that wasn’t exceptional. As Ann Pettifor points out the UK Post Keynesian Economics Study Group, which is a leading group who focus on studying Keynes and, arguably, has the leading UK Keynesian scholars among its membership, “found out about the conference by accident.” Second, if you examine the speaker’s list and read the papers that are available you might wonder what this conference had to do with Keynes. Certainly if the Cambridge organisers were aiming to “honour” the message that Keynes gave, then they had a strange way of doing that. The reality is that the celebration of 75 years since Keynes was a farce.

Everything is Greek today in the financial press. The number of commentators who are concluding that Greece has to exit the Eurozone are increasing. It is obvious and it is only the obsessive desire of the Euro bosses to preserve the interests of a few banks at the expense of the welfare of millions that is keeping the EMU together at present. If they stepped outside their mainstream straitjacket for a moment they would see that the ECB could guarantee all French and German bank assets at the stroke of a pen. This mainstream blindness comes out in all sorts of ways. The problem is that social science of which economics is a branch (yes I am in that school rather than placing economics in “business”) – suffers in relation to the other sciences because it is hard to pin down things given the lack of controlled environments. With human behaviour essentially shifting the mainstream economists can get away with all sorts of lies and deceptions most of the time because it is too hard to prove otherwise. But sophisticated analysis is really not necessary. Over the last two decades we have had some real-life experiments going on before our very eyes that allow us to see through the cant that is mainstream theory. How many more experiments do we need before my professional colleagues are totally discredited?

I am travelling today and so have to steal time to write this blog between other commitments. Later this week I am presenting a paper at a workshop on stock-flow consistent macroeconomics and I was thinking over the weekend just gone what I would do with the time I have for the presentation (1 hour). I started putting together a database of IMF forecasts out to 2016 for various nations and simulating the implications for the sectoral balances. Then I thought I would discuss the internal inconsistencies of those forecasts from a stock-flow perspective and the implications of those inconsistencies. I will write a blog later in the week on that once I have finalised the presentation. But the preliminary thinking led to today’s blog. In policy you have to wish for the possible.

I saw a bit of the recent US Republican candidates’ debate. It was extremely boring to say the least. If that field is the best conservative America can muster and Obama is the best the conservatives who think they are progressives can muster then que dieu nous aide. I thought the policy discussion from the candidates in the debate were woeful and I longed for Sarah Palin to walk in and say something sensible. But one influential commentator did find something rather interesting and pleasing about the debate. In this Wall Street Journal article (June 16, 2011) – Republicans Return to Reality – Peggy Noonan tells us that the GOP has at least demonstrated a new sobriety when it comes to policy. The reason? Read on. But my reaction is to draft a memo to the US Treasury – headline – E-mail me for my bank details.

I have very little spare time to write my blog today so this will truly be brief. Amidst all the riots in Athens as the Eurozone farce descents further into the mire, the UK Labour Force data came out yesterday (June 15, 2011). There are some who are saying that the data presents good news. A closer examination reveals nothing of the sort. Others are claiming that there isn’t really a problem of unemployment in Britain because the unemployed are largely unemployable. That is a familiar refrain after a deep recession as the labour market struggles to keep pace with the underlying population growth. The conservatives always try to redefine what we might call full employment and claim that a much higher unemployment rate is now indicative of full capacity. The same game is being played out in Australia where despite unemployment and underemployment totally 12.2 per cent at present the Reserve Bank governor had the audacity to claim there were not that many spare labour resources (like 1.3 million odd workers don’t count any more).

It is going to be brief today – it is a holiday in Australia. Queen’s Birthday no less. Can you believe that we are still under the yoke of our colonial masters? Anyway, a winter’s holiday – pouring rain and cold. But I read a couple of things today which I thought were worth interrupting other work to write about as they establish some general principles relevant to understanding Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). The discussion also highlights the recurrent nature of the prophecies of doom – that come from the likes of the Peter G. Peterson foundation now but others in the past. We were told in the 1930s that profligate governments would go bankrupt. They didn’t but when they cut back there economies went broke. The Japanese government was predicted to become insolvent in the 1990s along with hyperinflation and skyrocketing interest rates. Nothing happened other than the fiscal austerity that was imposed as a result of the political pressure arising from these predictions sent the economy back into recession. Same as now … fiscal austerity – imposed because allegedly budgets are unsustainable – will drive economies back towards and into recession. When will we ever learn?

I have been travelling the last few days and while sitting at the airport on my way home I have been catching up on all the snippets of text and links I accumulate each day. While the current generations are living through the “digital revolution” we should not forget that 50 odd years ago humans went to the Moon – which at the time was an ingenious demonstration of our capacity for technological marvel. The motives for this feat which were tied up in the Cold War paranoia were clearly suspect but I recall at the time as a young high school student, as all the classrooms were mustered in a TV viewing room to watch the landing, that we are a clever lot. I no longer think that.

Several readers have written to me asking me to comment on a recent paper that the New York Federal Reserve released as a Staff Report (May 2011) – A Note on Bank Lending in Times of Large Bank Reserves. Apparently, there is an impression that the federal reserve economists might be seeing the light a bit about the banking system and the way economists think about it. The reason that some readers have concluded that is because the substantive conclusion of the paper is that credit expansion is independent of the level of banking reserves held at the central bank. This conclusion is totally consistent with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) but is at odds with the standard mainstream macroeconomic view (as taught in textbooks) that relies on the money multiplier to draw a (spurious) connection between bank reserves and the money supply. As you will see – my advice is to be very careful when reading such papers – they are not what they seem. The FRNY paper reaches the correct conclusion using erroneous theory which they partition as a special case arising from the extreme circumstances surrounding the crisis. Even in defining their “model” as a special case, they employ flawed logic. It is a case of being beware of the wolf in sheep’s clothing.