ECB should start funding government infrastructure and cash handouts

I was a signatory to a letter published in the Financial Times on Thursday (March 26, 2015) – Better ways to boost eurozone economy and employment – which called for a major fiscal stimulus from the European Central Bank (given it is the only body in the Eurozone that can introduce such a stimulus). The fiscal stimulus would take the form of a cash injection using the ECB’s currency monopoly powers. A co-signatory was Robert Skidelsky, Emeritus Professor, Warwick University, renowned Keynesian historian and Keynes’ biographer. Amazingly, Skidelsky wrote an article in the UK Guardian two days before the FT Letter was published (March 24, 2015) – Fiscal virtue and fiscal vice – macroeconomics at a crossroads – which would appear to contradict the policy proposal we advocated in the FT Letter. The Guardian article is surrender-monkey territory and I disagree with most of it. It puts the progressive case on the back foot. What the hell is going on?

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European Youth Guarantee audit exposes its (austerity) flaws

On Tuesday (March 24, 2015), the European Court of Auditors, which is the EU’s independent external auditor and aims to improve “EU financial management”, released a major report – EU Youth Guarantee: first steps taken but implementation risks ahead (3 mb). The Report reflects on the experience of the program which was introduced in April 2013. When the European Commission proposed the initiative I wrote that it was underfunded, poorly focused (on supply rather than demand – that is, job creation) and would fail within an overwhelming austerity environment. The Audit Report is more diplomatic as you would expect but comes up with findings that are not inconsistent with my initial assessment in 2012.

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Eurozone unemployment – little to do with international competitiveness

The so-called ‘Informal European Council’ released a document on February 12, 2015 – Preparing for Next Steps on Better Economic Governance in the Euro Area: Analytical Note – which has been used as a background paper to batter the Greeks into submission in the latest round of the Eurozone crisis. It was published under the authorshop of Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the European Commission) with “close cooperation” with Donald Tusk (President of the European Council), Jeroen Dijsselbloem (President of the Eurogroup of Finance Ministers) and Mario Draghi (ECB boss). All that is missing is the Madame from the IMF to complete the Troika. This is a very dishonest document, deliberately framed to advance the austerity agenda and damage the living standards of some of the nations within the monetary union. It is hard how any serious economist would put their name to this sort of analysis.

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Friday lay day – lifestyle choices and destructive ignorance

Its my Friday lay day blog. The aim is to write less here and more elsewhere. I don’t always succeed. Today I have a day full of meetings. One was with the Australian Productivity Council about the viability of establishing a majority-Australian owned motor car industry. I will have more to say about this on another day but the idea is interesting if not compelling. I noted the faked fake is a fake (‘Fingergate’). The tension in Brussels is rising and the position appears to be unchanged. The hardliners lecturing Greece about the need for more reforms. The Greeks claiming they will not reimpose austerity even though they currently are. And it is all leading in one of two directions – capitulation of exit. But closer to homefor a while. The press are zeroing in of the offensive barbs about Holocausts and Goebbels that our Prime Minister keeps using to slur his political opponents, which really, despite all the mock shock and hurt from the recipients, only serve to slur the deliverer and make him look like an idiot. But his other ‘foot-in-the-mouth’ moment came on March 10, 2015, when the Prime Minister, in an attempt to make himself look tough to shore up his waning political support, claimed that indigenous Australians were making “lifestyle choices” by residing in remote communities and live on income support. He was supporting the West Australian state government’s decision to ‘close’ down 150 remote communities and force the residents into larger settlements to ‘save money’. The policy is wrong at the most elemental level and reveals not only an ignorance about economics but also a total lack of understanding of the cultural and anthropological history of our nation.

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British fiscal statement – continues the lie about austerity

The British Chancellor George Osborne told the British people during his fiscal presentation yesterday that the “The sun is starting to shine – and we are fixing the roof”, which was code for the age of austerity is over. The problem with that narrative is that the sun over Britain is pretty weak, has been shining since 2012 when the British government deferred its austerity push when the nascent economic recovery it inherited tanked after its first fiscal exercise in June 2010. The strategy then was clear – they kept the fiscal deficit at relatively high levels (even if some of the shifting of expenditures etc cause inequities and undermines the prosperity of certain cohorts). Those deficits have supported growth over the last several years. But growth has also come from the stimulus the government gave to the housing sector (not the construction of houses but the churning of existing stock) in the 2012 and 2013 Fiscal Statements (aka the ‘Budget’). That growth strategy is ephemeral because the household sector can only absorb so much extra debt given its already highly indebted state. Overall, the fiscal narrative in Britain put out by the Conservatives is a lie. They have not created a nation of “Makers” and growth has not come from austerity. If you want to see what austerity does just look across the Channel to Italy, France, and, of course Greece. The UK has not demonstrated that austerity is a stimulus to growth.

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Fiscal surplus by 2017-18? A mindless goal guaranteed to cause havoc and fail

Its sad when politicians lie just to get political points as they face declining popularity. We saw last week that the Australian Prime Minister started attacking indigenous Australians for living in areas that they have occupied, one way or another, for somewhere up to 80,000 years. He claimed these settlements were “lifestyle” choices and people could no longer expect government support if they wanted to indulge in such choices. 80,000 years for a culture that has a deep connection with the ‘land’ is quite story compared to the Anglo settlement in Australia of 226 years for a culture that connects via iPhones! The PM was playing into the hands of the racist Australians who think the indigenous population here are skivers and drunks and should get no state support. They ignore that this cohort is one of the most disadvantaged peoples of the World. In the last few days, the PM has been lying about the state of government finances and pledging to that “the government will have the budget back in balance within five years”. There was no mention of what this might imply for the real economy. I am surprised that the conservatives haven’t learned from the previous Labor Government who made continual promises of surpluses but failed each time – largely because they didn’t understand that they cannot control the fiscal outcomes no matter how hard they try. And when they do try and run against the spending desires of the non-government sector, they just cause havoc and damage and fail to achieve their goals anyway. Stupid is not the word for these sorts of promises.

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Spanish labour market – not so dynamic

There was an article published by a Spanish research group (aligned with the University of Navarro) last week (March 14, 2015) – Spain’s Labor Market grows more dynamic – that reports on a special survey (150,000 respondents in 800 Spanish firms) which purports to show that the “labour mobility maintained its upward march to reach 18.8 per cent in the second half of 2014”. That is, within the sample “nearly one in five workers changed jobs during the period”. The results are unable to confirm whether the increased mobility is the result of better “efficiency” in matching workers to jobs or “higher job insecurity or staff turnover linked to lower retention rates and less training for short-term hires”. There is a world of difference between these alternatives. They also find that job creation rates are still low and falling and only 1.5 per cent higher than job destruction rates leading to the conclusion that “job creation remains tenuous”. I decided to look at another source of data which can shed light on the state of the Spanish labour market – the so-called Gross Flows data, which tracks quarterly movements (in Spain’s case) between the major labour force categories – employment, unemployment and inactivity. The results do not suggest that the Spanish labour market has improved much.

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US and Eurozone inflationary expectations diverge

Back in October 2009, the US unemployment rate had climbed to 10 per cent (its seasonally adjusted peak in the recent recession), the fiscal deficit was around $US1.4 trillion (9.8 per cent of GDP), which was the largest since the end of the Second World War (1945) 9.9 per cent of GDP and federal spending rose by 18 per cent with about 50 per cent going to bail out the banks. Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve ramped up its so-called quantitative easing (QE) program and its balance sheet expanded rapidly (as its purchase of government bonds accelerated). A lot of mainstream economists and conservative politicians at the time predicted an economic maelstrom – higher interest rates, an acceleration of inflation in the US and the inevitability of higher taxation. The trends in other nations were similar – higher deficits as the unemployment rates rose and the same shrill predictions of doom from the mainstream. None of the predictions came to be. But what is interesting is that the behaviour of long-term inflationary expectations in the US is now quite different to Europe. The most likely reason is that market participants now consider the drawn out recession and stagnation in the Eurozone to be the result of manifest policy failure and do not consider QE will do anything to alter that. In the US, the policy framework – fiscal stimulus to growth and benign QE appears to be more credible.

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Friday lay day – Faut-il donc haïr l’Allemagne?

Its my Friday lay day blog where I plan to write less here and more elsewhere. Today, a brief discussion of two interesting articles that I read recently. The blog title – Faut-il donc haïr l’Allemagne? (must we hate Germany?) – was the question posed recently by the French economist – Jacques Sapir – as a reaction to the way Germany (particularly its Finance Minister) handled the Greek request for less austerity and more flexibility in the recent Eurogroup encounters. His February 20, 2015 article (in French) – Haïr l’Allemagne? – concludes that the actions of Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schäuble towards Greece have “repeated the sins” (“Les péchés répétés”) of the past and opened up old wounds that will further undermine the democracy in Europe. Sapir concludes that “Alors, disons-le, cette Allemagne là est haïssable”. What does that mean?

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Lacklustre British economy all down to Conservative incompetence

Not much has really changed in Capitalism despite massive changes in technology, market reach, etc. The underlying behaviour is stable – chicanery, bleeding the state for all the advantages that capital can gain while berating workers (unions) and welfare recipients, rigging financial, share and product markets, lying about state finances to gain more access to public handouts, lobbying government to socialise risk and privatise profit, paying off politicians to engage in corrupt behaviour where conflicts of interest dominate, and more. I was reading about the famous – South Sea Company – today, which was a public-private partnership that began life in 1711. It was a total scam and had all of the elements noted above. Its collapse in 1720 on the back of corrupt and incompetent behaviour (GFC anyone?) caused one hell of a recession in the UK. The only thing it managed to do in any significant volume with its trade monopoly between the UK and South America was to buy and sell slaves and, even then, it messed that up financially – quite aside from the repugnance of the venture itself. Interestingly, its collapse led to the rise of the, then private Bank of England, becoming the Government’s banker, and ultimately, its dominant role as the central bank. What is the contemporary relevance of the South Sea Bubble and its collapse? There are many angles that resonate in the current debate, but the point today is that the current recovery in the UK is the slowest in 300 years – that is since the glacial recovery following the collapse of the South Sea Company. And George Osborne thinks he is a champion.

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Don’t mention the war! er the Troika …

“Don’t mention the war”! was a classic line from the episode – The Germans – in the comedy Fawlty Towers. Basil Fawlty implored his meagre staff to stay silent in case they offended some German tourists staying at his hotel. His attempt at self-censorship failed and led to hilarious consequences. I was reminded of the sketch (see it below) when I was reading the – Greek finance minister’s letter to the Eurogroup (February 24, 2015). Apparently, it is now a case of ‘Don’t mention the Troika’, ‘Don’t mention the Memorandum’ and never ever talk about the ‘Lenders’. The bullying threesome (European Commission, ECB and the IMF) are now known as “the institutions” and the “Memorandum” (the bailout package) is now to be called “The Agreement” and the “Lenders” have been recast as the “Partners”. Okay, and that is progress. The Reform package surely lets the Greeks choose which nasty policy they will implement but it is still nasty. Yes, it “buys them time”. The damage from massive unemployment and poverty eats into people every day. 4 months is a long time when you are on the street starving. And by the time this agreement is done – will the Germans be happy to unleash billions of euros via the European Investment Bank to allow the Greek government to continue running fiscal primary surpluses and keep pumping interest income on outstanding debt into ‘foreign’ coffers? Pigs might fly.

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National income continues to be redistributed from wages to profits in Australia

One of the salient features of the neo-liberal era has been the on-going redistribution of national income to profits away from wages. This feature is present in many nations. As I noted in yesterday’s blog – Employer group demands free labour from Government – employer groups in Australia are upping the ante and demanding that the Government provide them with free labour. It goes like this – the government runs a fiscal austerity campaign, which creates rising unemployment. They then harass the unemployed for daring to apply for the below poverty line income support. If that is not enough, then the private sector demands the Government hand these unemployed workers over to them for free to “make coffee” and other tasks. Its a lovely world that we are living in. Meanwhile there is growing pressure on Australia’s wage setting tribunals to scrap penalty and overtime rates, allegedly because they damage employment and firms are just busting to put more workers on as long as wages drop. The Australian Bureau of Statistics published the latest – Wage Price Index, Australia – for the December-quarter today and we learn that the annual growth in wages is now at the lowest level since the data series began in the June-quarter 1997. The annual hourly wage inflation is now down to 2.5 per cent overall and 2.4 per cent in the private sector. With productivity growth running slightly slower and the annual inflation rate dropping sharply in recent quarters as the overall economy slows down (and oil prices fall), the shift to profits slowed marginally in the December-quarter. But Real Unit Labour Costs (RULC) continued to fall. Further, the long-term trends are still alarming with employment growth flat or negative and unemployment rising.

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Friday lay day – Cave in or Trojan Horse?

Its the Friday lay day blog and I have a day ahead full of meetings with research partners, other parties and related matters. So I am glad I told myself I wouldn’t write much today. But we have to mention the discussions in Brussels yesterday – extraordinary on all sides. Late last night I read the letter the Greek Minister of Finance wrote to his suited confrères on the Eurogroup committee. I had to read it more than once and convince myself that I was reading it correctly rather than being duped by the hour of the evening and the flight I had taken to where I am today. I read it and read it. Each time I concluded cave in! Sure the words were still a bit like those that a proud, independent people might write to international partners. But once you cut through the defence of self-esteem to the substance the conclusion resonated strongly – the Greek government, for all their talk and bluster, have caved in. Then I read the memo from the German Ministry of Finance in all its Teutonic clarity – Fuck off, we want you to get down on your knees when you cave in not stand there without your ties and suits smiling about it. Amazing really, on all sides.

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Saturday Quiz – February 14, 2015 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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US labour market improving slowly – Eurozone falls further behind

Last week (February 6, 2015), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest – Employment Situation Summary – which suggested that “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 257,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.7 percent”. That is a relatively strong result and job gains were reported across all the major private sectors. Public employment continued to fall. The data has already been analysed to death within the media so I wanted to concentrate on some comparisons with other nations, which are quite interesting. Further, the BLS released the related – Job Openings and Labor Turnover – dataset yesterday (February 10, 2015), which allows us to dig deeper into the raw aggregate numbers to make better assessments of what is going on.

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Greek bank deposit migration – another neo-liberal smokescreen

There was a news report on Al Jazeera on Friday (January 5, 2015) – Greece’s left-wing government meets eurozone reality – which contained a classic quote about the supposed incompetence of the new Greek Finance Minister. A UK commentator, one Graham Bishop was quoted as saying “If you’re a professor of macroeconomics and a renowned blogger, you probably don’t understand precisely how the banking systems works”. Take a few minutes out to recover from the laughing fit you might have immediately succumbed to on reading that assessment. As if Bishop knows ‘precisely’ how the system works! The context is the current news frenzy about the deposit migration out of Greek banks as a supposed vote of no confidence in the anti-austerity stand taken by Syriza. Having voted overwhelmingly for Syriza, Greeks are now allegedly voting against the platform by shifting their deposits out of the Greek banking system. A close look at things suggests that is not going on and it wouldn’t matter much if it was.

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Saturday Quiz – February 7, 2015 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Friday lay day – RBA acknowledges failure of government fiscal policy

Its the Friday lay day blog – and I promise it will be short. Today, we celebrate what would have been the 70th birthday of – Robert Nesta Marley. I wish he was still making music. There is an excellent retrospective on Bob Marley in the UK Guardian (February 6, 2015) – Bob Marley at 70: legend and legacy – from Vivien Goldman, who was his Press Agent at Island Records in 1975 and knew him well. It is well worth reading. Today also marked the release of the quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). They have further downgraded their real GDP growth forecast and consider it will remain below trend for at least another year or so. They also estimate that the unemployment rate will continue to rise and still be above 6 per cent by June 2017. In other words, they are acknowledging the failure of fiscal policy settings in Australia. For a national government obsessed with fiscal austerity, this Statement should lead to an immediate policy reversal and the announcement of a major fiscal stimulus to increase economic growth and reduce unemployment. Unfortunately, that won’t happen and the government will get its comeuppance in the 2016 federal election. It cannot come soon enough.

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A primary fiscal deficit Never ever? I don’t think so

I know I am an armchair commentator hiding out in my research environment and not really accountable to anybody other than the funding agencies I win grants from. I am certainly not a Finance Minister with a nation in crisis on my hands. But with that said I wonder how any Finance Minister who aims to create full employment and expand equity and undo years of deliberately imposed neo-liberal hardship can claim his nation will “Never, never, never!” record a primary fiscal deficit again. That comment has to be dismissed as political rhetoric rather than an expression of a serious evaluation of reality. What worries me about Greece at the moment is that we are seeing a trend around the world where politicians over promise (or lie straight out) about their intentions to apparently appease the multitude of vested interests then proceed to do what they like. I discussed how this is now backfiring in the recent blog – Time is running out for neo-liberalism. An understanding of macroeconomics will tell you (and I know the Finance Minister in question knows all this) that a government cannot guarantee to never run a primary fiscal deficit forever unless they are prepared to allow for large swings in unemployment, something I thought the new Greek government was averse to, and it is that aversion, which defines their popular appeal.

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Time is running out for neo-liberalism

You get a sense as to why the public are confused about economic issues when you read this article in the Fairfax press this morning (February 3, 2015) – The brutal politics of privatisation stark after Queensland election shock – written in the aftermath of the conservative electoral bloodbath in the state of Queensland last weekend. The writer is a ‘well-respected’ business journalist, which just goes to show how ‘respect’ is easily gained if you sing from the appropriate hymn sheet. It is all in the conclusion: “The clock is ticking for Australia. With an infrastructure backlog and big budget deficits, we can build the infrastructure we need only by selling assets and attracting private capital”. Which is a barefaced (and ignorant) lie, even when applied to a state government that uses the currency issued at the federal level. Privatisation is not TINA. But while the public might be confused at the level of understanding (about how the monetary system operates etc), it is clear they are becoming increasingly focused at the level of feelings/sentiment. More and more people are seeing that neo-liberal remedies – privatisation, austerity, structural ‘reform’ etc – do not live up to their claims. Increasingly, we are seeing rising income and wealth inequality being associated with these attacks on workers. Several recent election outcomes around the world have categorically affirmed the obvious – citizens all over are starting to rebel against austerity and neo-liberal so-called ‘solutions’ (such as privatisation and public sector job cuts). In Australia we have just witnessed a remarkable electoral rout in the Queensland State Election where the neo-liberal, privatising conservatives were tossed out of office on Saturday exactly as a result of a widespread rejection of these policies. The Greek elections a few weeks ago provided a more profound signal of this trend. The European Parliament elections in May last year another. Time is running out for neo-liberalism. The smugness that the elites have had is

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