Major shifts in sentiment within Japan as they try to escape the cost-cutting excess profits mindset

This week (July 29, 2025), the Cabinet Office in Tokyo released the Economic and Fiscal Report – 年次経済財政報告 – which is a comprehensive statement of where the Economic and Fiscal Policy Ministry thinks the Japanese economy is going and the challenges it faces. It is a long and very thorough document. But like many official documents that the Japanese government publishes, it reads quite unlike what other governments that are sort of in IMF-spin mode pump out. The fundamental takeaway from reading the Report is that the Japanese government is still uncertain about whether the country has evolved out of its deflationary mindset and become a ‘growth-oriented’ nation driven by real wages growth. There is certainly criticism (implied in the Japanese fashion) for corporations sitting on large cash assets who are underinvesting in local productive capital. But the overwhelming hope of the government is that the nascent wage increases that have been offered mostly by the large major corporations continue and spread throughout the economy into the dominant small and medium enterprises. Most governments are still in the corporate cost-cutting mindset – thinking that is somehow how productivity and improved material well-being will occur. So their foci is on deregulation and attacking trade unions and that sort of ‘supply side’ nonsense. The Japanese government is firmly banking on a consumer-led, domestic economy growth strategy fostered by extensive wage rises outstripping the growth in prices.

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Inflation continuing to fall in Australia further exposing the incompetence of our central bank

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest – Consumer Price Index, Australia – for the June-quarter 2025 today (July 30, 2025). The quarterly data showed that the inflation rate rose by 0.7 points in the quarter but over the 12 months and on an annual basis fell from 2.4 per cent to 2.1 per cent. However, the monthly measure for June 2025 shows annual inflation at 1.9 per cent – which the RBA should be stating is ‘too low’ given the lower bound of their targetting range is 2 per cent. The inflation rate has been within the RBA’s inflation targeting range for four successive quarters and inflationary expectations are falling or benigh. There are no significant wage pressures evident. Using the RBA’s own logic, its policy interest rate should now be cut.

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State level fire services need to be adequately funded – land tax hikes are necessary and progressive

In my commissioned research activities, which are separate from the basic academic research that occupies most of my time, I come across interesting situations which bear on the way monetary systems operate and the type of constraints faced by different levels of government. In Australia, we have three levels of government: Federal (currency issuer), State and Territories (currency users), and Local government (currency users). Our constitution also confers the major spending responsibilities – education, health, transport, etc on the states and territories despite them having few legal means to raise revenue, which has been a major problem since Federation. If one then embeds that constitutional fact into the fictional mainstream economics narrative that says the currency-issuing federal government is financially constrained in its spending like a household, public debt becomes a media issue. After the pandemic, the federal and state governments were left with significant increases in debt liabilities that has led the state governments to impose austerity cuts and hike taxes. The Victorian state government has recently hiked a levy on land ostensibly to provide extra funding for emergency services. The problem is that the campaign against this tax hike is bringing together an array of anti-progressive elements who just want a change of government. Their campaign, which is roping in progressives who don’t seem to understand the issues, cannot answer how the fire services, which have been underfunded for years as a result of an austerity mindset and facing major equipment deficits and wage demands, will be able to provide adequate services with such a tax hike. The land tax is a progressive tax and the best source of revenue to improve the fire services which are essential to the community. Once again the buy-in to the anti-tax campaign is a case of progressives shooting themselves in the foot.

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The Smith Family MMT Manga – Episode 2 for Season 3 is now available

Season 3 of the – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money – produced by MMTed continues today (July 24, 2025). Ryan lost his job in the recession and went to pieces, drinking too much and gambling the family funds away. Elizabeth kicked him out and now, with a new mission, he has asked Elizabeth for another chance. His unemployment forced him to shift his world view and reject the austerity logic of Professor Raul Noitawl, who he had previously considered infallible. Meanwhile, banker Chris is now working a the chief policy advisor to the Opposition in the lead up to the national election and he assembles at Elizabeth’s house to discuss the Job Guarantee with Kevin and his friends. They have a lot to learn.

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The report of the Special Envoy to Combat Antisemitism in Australia should be categorically rejected by government

In July 2024, as a knee jerk reaction to pressure being put on it by powerful lobby groups in Australia, the Federal Government created a Special Envoy to Combat Antisemitism. After it was pointed out that this seemed an odd creation, especially given that Australia has relatively strong racial discrimination and laws that protect freedom of religion, and that other definable ethnic/religious groups were also regularly in the firing line of abuse (for example, Muslims and First Nations peoples), the Government then (with a lag of a few months) created a Special Enjoy to Combat Islamophobia. Both creations are poor policy. On July 10, 2025, the Antisemitism Envoy delivered a major report, which, if the recommendations are implemented will become a major threat to academic and artistic freedom and do nothing to advance world peace and harmony. Quite the opposite. I have been reluctant to discuss the atrocity that is now entrenched in the Middle East as a result of the actions of the Israel government. But the release of this Report and subsequent news coverage that I saw in Doha recently (while transiting) of the starvation of people (especially little children) has led me to this blog post. If the Report’s recommendations are implemented by the Government, such a blog post will probably open me to prosecution as an anti-Semite, which would be a preposterous accusation, and just shows how flawed the path we are taking to these issues has become.

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Britain’s Leeds Reforms – jumping the shark comes to mind

Last week (July 15, 2025), the British Chancellor delivered the – Rachel Reeves Mansion House 2025 speech – which is an annual event where the Chancellor outlines the state of the economy and what the government is doing. Mansion House, London – is the official residence of London’s Lord Mayor and is located in the heart of the City (financial district). If you want to see an echo chamber in action then this is one place where you will find one. All the self-important characters from the financial markets being duchessed by a sycophantic chancellor all in the one place. Perfection. Reeves was there to tell the ‘markets’ what they had longed for over the last 15 years – that the so-called – Leeds Reforms – would see the regulatory and supervisory framework that was erected after the GFC largely abandoned and that they could get back to relatively unfettered ‘greed is good’ operations again. Perfection. Apparently, the Chancellor has been convinced by the speculators that they hold the interests of the British working class at the centre of their hearts and that they will do everything in their power to advance those interests through their own operations. And, ladies and gentlemen – pigs might fly.

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Australian labour market – evidence is mounting of policy sabotage driving the unemployment rate up

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (July 17, 2025) – Labour Force, Australia – for June 2025, which reveals that finally, the slack that the combination of the fiscal austerity and the high interest rates has created is feeding into the labour market as employment growth slows and the unemployment rate rises (by 0.2 points) to 4.3 per cent. The array of indicators now suggest that there is a systematic slowdown occurring in the labour market. Unemployment has now risen by 59.5 thousand or 0.4 points over the last 6 months as the fiscal position remains tight and the central bank holds interest rates at elevated levels. This is unnecessary policy sabotage – inflation began declining in December 2022 and is now at relatively stable and low levels – there is no reason for the government to be running contractionary policy stance. Underemployment also rose 0.1 point. The broad labour underutilisation rate (sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose to 10.3 per cent (up 0.3 points). It remains a fact that with 10.3 per cent of available labour not being used it is ludicrous to talk about Australia being close to full employment. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.

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How to break out of the commodification of everything

Regular readers will know that I run a bit, like lots. Last week, while I was in Europe, I decided to stay on Australian time, given the brevity of the mission, so I found myself running at midnight or just after awaking at 22:00 or 23:00 (after going to sleep around 14:00). It turned out to be a good strategy because the abnormally (scary) high temperatures during the day last week in Europe gave way to warm nights with just a hint of crispness in the air – perfect running conditions. Yesterday morning, though, I was in Melbourne, Australia and set off on my early run (around 7:00 being Sunday) and I was a bit tired from yesterday’s Parkrun in Newcastle. Yes, I move around a bit. This morning though, I saw more than the usual numbers out and about on the familiar running areas in the park lands of Melbourne and soon came across Run Melbourne, a large event with screaming speakers, ridiculous geeing-up announcers on microphones, and thousands of people blocking the usual serene early morning paths along the Yarra River. I had earlier been re-reading Chapter 13 of Harry Braverman’s colossal book from 1974 (which everyone should read) – Labor and Monopoly Capital: The Degradation of Work in the Twentieth Century – which was published by Monthly Review Press. The words of – Harry Braverman – came back to me as I tried to work out a way around yesterday morning’s mayhem down by the river.

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Treasurer, please sack the RBA governor and the Monetary Policy Board members – they have gone rogue

Once again the Reserve Bank of Australia has gone rogue. On Tuesday (July 8, 2025), it held its cash rate target (the interest rate that expresses its monetary policy stance) constant at 3.85 per cent despite all the indicators suggesting that it would cut that target rate. The financial markets are in uproar because they bet on the cut and will have lost money on a myriad of speculative bets based on that expectation. I don’t care about that. But what I care about is that the RBA decision continues to punish low-income mortgage holders and reward high income holders of financial assets, thus continuing one of the most pernicious redistributions of income in the history of our nation. Moreover, the logic expressed by the RBA indicates they really have no idea of what the reality of the situation is and are rather living in a world of fictional economics that reality has exposed to be false. The Treasurer should sack the Governor and her underlings as well as dismissing the Monetary Policy board who have, in my view, failed. Such systematic failures should require the RBA officials to be dismissed.

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The Eurozone Member States are not equivalent to currency-issuing governments in fiscal flexibility

I don’t have much time today for writing as I am travelling a lot on my way back from my short working trip to Europe. While I was away I had some excellent conversations with some senior European Commission economists who provided me with the latest Commission thinking on fiscal policy within the Eurozone and the attitude the Commission is taking to the macroeconomic surveillance and enforcement measures. It is a pity that some Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) colleagues didn’t have the same access. If they had they would not keep repeating the myth that for all intents and purposes the 20 Member States are no different to a currency issuing nation. Such a claim lacks an understanding of the institutional realities in Europe and unfortunately serves to give false hope to progressive forces who think that they can reform the dysfunctional architecture and the inbuilt neoliberalism to advance progressive ends. There is nearly zero possibility that such reform will be forthcoming and I despair that so much progressive energy is expended on such a lost cause.

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