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Australian labour market – weaker and may now be falling in line with the weaker spending and GDP growth

Today (November 14, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for October 2024, which shows that employment growth was very weak and may signal that the labour market is finally slowing in line with overall spending and GDP growth. Employment growth failed to keep pace with the underlying population growth and the only reason the unemployment rate remained ‘stable’ was because participation fell, in line with the weaker jobs outlook. We should not disregard the fact that there is now 10.4 per cent of the working age population (over 1.6 million people) who are available and willing but cannot find enough work – either unemployed or underemployed and that proportion is increasing. Australia is not near full employment despite the claims by the mainstream commentators and it is hard to characterise this as a ‘tight’ labour market.

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Australia – latest wage data shows real wages continue to decline

Today (November 13, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Wage Price Index, Australia – for the September-quarter 2024, which shows that the aggregate wage index rose by 3.5 per cent over the 12 months (down 0.6 points on the last quarter). In relation to the September-quarter CPI change (2.8 per cent), this result suggests that workers achieved modest real wage gains. However, if we use the more appropriate Employee Selected Living Cost Index as our measure of the change in purchasing power then the September-quarter result of 4.7 per cent means that real wages fell by 1.2 points. Even the ABS notes the SLCI is a more accurate measure of cost-of-living increases for specific groups of interest in the economy. However, most commentators will focus on the nominal wages growth relative to CPI movements, which in my view provides a misleading estimate of the situation workers are in. Further, while productivity growth is weak, the movement in real wages is such that real unit labour costs are still declining, which is equivalent to an ongoing attrition of the wages share in national income. So corporations are failing to invest the massive profits they have been earning and are also taking advantage of the current situation to push up profit mark-ups. A system that then forces tens of thousands of workers out of employment to deal with that problem – that is, the reliance on RBA interest rate hikes – is void of any decency or rationale. That is modern day Australia.

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The dislocation between the PMC and the rest of the working class – Part 1

A while ago, I caught up with an old friend who I was close to during our postgraduate studies. We hadn’t seen each other for some years as a result of pursuing different paths in different parts of the world and it was great to exchange notes. At one stage during the conversation, she said to me that I had become one of the ‘super elites’, a term that evaded definition but could be sort of teased out by referring to lifestyle choices etc. The most obvious manifestation was the fact that she was visiting my new home in an experimental sustainable housing estate, which apparently marked one demarcation between being an ordinary citizen and one of the ‘super elites’. That group also apparently doesn’t have any power in society like the real elites – the old and new money gang – but is privileged nonetheless. I understand the notion even if it somewhat amorphous. I was reflecting on that conversation as I have been trying to understand why the US voters chose Donald Trump over the seemingly more progressive and decent candidate Kamala Harris. I use that description of Harris guardedly, because if one digs below the surface, even just a bit, it becomes clear that the Democrats were not particularly progressive or decent (Gaza!) at all but more interested in lecturing people they look down on as to how they should behave and look. All that stuff about restoring joy – was really what ‘super elites’ think about and is far removed from the aspirations of the voters who went for Trump. Here are some additional thoughts on that topic.

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Both main candidates were unelectable but one was more in tune with the nation than the other

So from January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will inherit the on-going genocide that the US government has been party to in the Middle East. He will then have no cover and will be judged accordingly. What follows are a few thoughts that I had when I watched the unfolding disaster for the Democrats and the amazing victory that Trump has recorded. It was obviously a Hobson’s Choice facing the US voters (from an outside perspective), which also tells us something about the way the US society has evolved. Both candidates were in my view unelectable. But the voters didn’t agree with me. And, one candidate was much smarter that the other and better understood the plight the American voters are in after several decades of neoliberalism. Spare the thought.

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RBA monetary policy decision defies logic

Well, as I write this late in the Kyoto afternoon, Donald Trump has just made a victory speech after an incredible day of election outcomes unfolding. As I wrote last week, the only moral and reasonable position for a progressive to take in this election would be to vote for Jill Stein and send a strong message to the two major candidates that they were totally unelectable. I reject the claim that that strategy would just deliver a victory for Trump. However, the Democrats can’t really deflect blame like that for their horrendous policies in relation to the Israel issue and more. So the US faced a Hobson’s choice and I hope progressive parties elsewhere heed the message of Harris’s loss. But today I want to write a bit about yesterday’s (November 5, 2024) decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold their cash rate target interest rate (the policy rate) constant. With inflation falling quickly, there is no logic to that decision. The RBA keep claiming that there is excess demand in the economy but that is an unsupportable claim given the evidence.

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Government job creation programs deliver significant (net) long-term benefits

On April 5, 1933, US President Roosevelt made an executive decision to create the – Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) – which was a component of the suite of government programs referred to as the – New Deal – that defined the Federal government’s solution to the mass unemployment that arose during the early years of the – Great Depression. These programs have been heavily criticised by the free market set as being unnecessary, wasteful and ineffective. Critics assert that no long-term benefits are forthcoming from such programs. However, those assertions are never backed by valid empirical evidence. A recent study by US academics has provided the first solid piece of evidence that the CCC delivered massive long-term benefits to the individuals who participated in it. And these benefits considerably outweigh the dollars outlaid by the government. I discuss that research today. The results also point to the effectiveness of a Job Guarantee program.

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State of Climate 2024 Report signals worse is coming – like very nearly now

This is my Wednesday blog post on a Thursday, given that I spent yesterday dealing with Australia’s latest CPI data release. So today I consider a range of topics in less detail, which is my usual Wednesday practice. Today, I comment on the latest ‘State of Climate 2024’ Report just released in Australia. I also consider the view that underneath all the regional wars at present where war lords fight to gain control of failed states is a voracious surplus extraction system we just happen to call Capitalism. And then some other items that have interested me this week. And a music segment.

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Australia – inflation rate falling fast, the RBA has overcooked it again

Today (October 30, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest – Consumer Price Index, Australia – for the September-quarter 2024. The data showed that the annual inflation rate rose by just 0.2 points in the quarter and has fallen to 2.9 per cent on an annual basis. The ABS also released the – Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator – which considers movements in September alone and the annual September-to-September inflation rate was recorded as 2.1 per cent (down from 2.7 per cent in August), which means that the inflation rate is dropping fast and will soon be well below the lower bound of the RBA’s targetting range – which means the RBA has overcooked it again! The Monthly Indicator is less accurate though than the quarterly figure in that it contains less overall price information (less goods and services are surveyed). The major expectations series all show expected inflation to be in decline and well within the RBA’s target zone. Using the RBA’s own logic, interest rates should now be cut.

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