Japan … just wait … your days are numbered

I was reading this IMF working paper today – The Outlook for Financing Japan’s Public Debt – which was released in January and was on my pile of things to catch up on. The paper is now being used by journalists to predict doom in the coming years for the Land of the Rising Sun. As I note, the stark deviation of the Japanese experience with the predictions of the mainstream macroeconomics models has given the conservatives a headache. As an attempt to reassert their relevance to the debate, the mainstream commentators are inventing new ploys so that they can say – yes we agree that the facts in the short-run don’t accord with our models but brothers and sisters just wait for what is around the corner. My assessment is that they have been saying this for 20 years already. In 5 more years, they will still be disappointed and still prophesying doom. They are pathetic!

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Japan grows along with the hysteria

Today, the Cabinet Office in Tokyo issued the third-quarter Japanese national accounts data which showed that the economy has posted positive growth for the second consecutive quarter and is now motoring along at an annualised rate of 4.8 per cent (1.2 per cent in the September quarter). In the June quarter growth resumed at 0.7 per cent (2.8 per cent annualised) and so the recovery is getting stronger. Given they did not allow labour underutilisation of labour to rise very much (a large increase by Japanese standards but relatively small compared to countries such as the UK and the US, they should be able to absorb the jobless fairly quickly. But this will only strengthen the growing call for the government to cut back net spending. It is a case of denying what is staring you the face.

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Japan – up against the neo-liberal machine

I have been intrigued with Japan for many years. It probably started with the post-war hostility towards them by the soldiers who saw the worst of them. The Anzac tradition was very unkind to Japan and its modern generations. It always puzzled me how we could hate them so much yet rely on them for our Post-World War II boom. I also thought we owed them something for being part of the political axis that dropped the first and only nuclear weapon on defenceless citizens when the war was over anyway. Whatever, I have long studied the nation and its economy. So yesterday’s election outcome certainly exercises the mind. Will it be a paradigm shift or a frustrating period where an ostensibly social democratic government runs up against the neo-liberal machine? I put these thoughts together about while travelling to and from Sydney on the train today.

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Alt protein is the way forward and China is already well ahead of the rest who are infested with destructive neoliberal ideology

With the Rhine drying up and grass turning brown all over Europe (including the UK), even conservative bodies such as the ECB are starting to take notice and comment. On July 2, 2026, a member of the Executive Board, Frank Elderson gave a speech to the 7th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists – The green transition – benefits and barriers. In that speech, he directly tied the mounting climate chaos with inflation volatility and emphasised the need to transition as quickly as possible to a net zero carbon economy. I am continuing to draft material for an upcoming book on degrowth and decolonialisation from an Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) perspective. The current area I am researching concerns the evolution of new uses of fermentation to provide food security and allow humanity to transition away from reliance on animal and fish products. The evidence demonstrates that the Chinese are now using its traditional expertise in fermentation to fast track production of Alt protein. As we know, the production of protein via livestock is highly inefficient (protein per hectare) and environmentally unsustainable. Using biomass and converting lignocellulose into food protein is a way around that situation and the Chinese are already way ahead of the rest of us. As long as we hang on to neoliberal ideologies that prevent wide scale state support of emerging industries and starve researchers of state provided R&D funding, the greater will the gulf be between China and the rest of the world on these future technologies and products. We are now seeing this in the production of EVs, for example. Alt protein is the solution for humanity to eliminate livestock dependence. We should be following the processes that China has put in place.

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Bank of International Settlements pushing the ‘growth friendly austerity’ myth

I have been ‘at it’ for decades now but it never ceases to amaze me how mainstream macroeconomic analysis is carried out and the way the public just accepts the conclusions without understanding the basis on which the analysis generates those conclusions. Chapter II in the BIS Annual Economic Report (released June 28, 2026) – High public debt and shifting financial markets: challenges for central banks – exemplifies this point. The conclusions are rather stark but they all flow on some key assumptions that could be varied at any time by the government, which would nullify the conclusions. In other words, the projections of crises and monetary emergencies are all predicated on the assumption that the government would not step in with its unique capacities to prevent the catastrophe. In what world would we think that would happen? Not the real world, and the GFC and pandemic are recent examples where the alleged constraints are jettisoned by government in the blink of an eye.

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Depreciating yen – look beyond the obvious for the explanation

The editorial in The Japan Times (July 3, 2026) – Little hope for a declining yen amid structural pressures – is an example of how mainstream commentators seize on superficial facts, apply some ideology, and come up with the wrong conclusion. As I have noted many times, the challenges facing Japan are many, not the least being the high savings rate, which is dominated by corporations. After the asset collapse in 1991, Japanese corporations have become large-scale net savers, with strong profits and very weak investment. The corporations are sitting on massive stockpiles of cash and liquid assets, and use on-going financial surpluses (profits greater than costs) to reduce their debt exposure. The 1991 crash (and the massive debt buildup that preceded it) has left a psychological scar on the Japanese firms. The Takaichi strategy is to ‘shock’ the economy into increasing investment rates via a large fiscal injection. This has implications for the currency value, which I will explain.

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What the new British government needs to do to get the unions on side with climate action

The recent extreme weather in the northern hemisphere, the twin monster tropical storms in Japan, the impending shutdown of the – Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) – among other happenings is telling us that things are changing for the worse. Clearly long-term weather trends are open to interpretation because the available data is sketchy the further one goes back. And, narratives from historians tell us that there have been rather extreme weather events in the past, which have led to many lost lives. The National Museum of Australia has an interesting information page – Heatwaves – which helps us understand the historical experience in Australia. There are other credible sites that deal with global events. However, the serial nature of the recent weather trends and the interlinked changes in the oceanic conditions, the cryosphere, rain and storms, and temperature allows us to counter the arguments that are presented to refute climate change science, which rely on claims that the current period is just part of a recurring cycle. These events are also relevant to the current political machinations in the UK, where Starmer is going (yay!) and the new probably PM is under fire from both business and unions for wanting to do something about climate change. In this post, I discuss what can be done.

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Towards a progressive rebuttal of the far Right narratives

I saw a clip from John Stewart’s Daily Show yesterday where he showed some Fox News commentators (I think) talking about how they hate ‘woke’ and how they now have to put up with public events featuring “half naked men” (their slight against the gay community). Stewart then showed the next clip – the cage fight at the White House where two half naked men were featured. The way he presented it was (as usual for the show) very funny. Yesterday (June 17, 2026), the leader of the far Right party in Australia (One Nation) gave her first ever – Speech – to the National Press Club in Canberra and apart from several outrageous statements (such as “Businesses also tell me you can’t sack people these days, they’re on their phones, they don’t work, they don’t turn up, they actually are lazy” and the “hoax of global warming”), she announced that Australia cannot be a multicultural society and that “we must be monocultural”. The fact checkers have already exposed her lack of honesty with respect to the actual data surrounding many of her assertions. But the question of culture and national cohesiveness is a subject that I am working on as part of my aim to publish a sequel to my 2017 book – Reclaiming the State: A Progressive Vision of Sovereignty for a Post-Neoliberal World – which I co-authored with Thomas Fazi. The question that the sequel begins with relates to what defines a viable currency area and what legitimates government fiscal policy. I see this issue as a central extension of the work on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) because it provides a sociological basis for currency sovereignty. One needs to develop a concept of the – Demos – to answer that question. I use that concept in the original sense.

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Apparently the UK government is about to do the impossible – run out of sterling

Go back to the headlines in 2010 – – “Countries with debt over 90 percent of GDP enter a danger zone”. The 90 per cent threshold entered the media coverage as a result of a paper released by Harvard economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart – Growth in a Time of Debt. That paper talked about “debt intolerance limits” arising from “sharply rising interest rates” – and then “painful fiscal adjustments” and “outright default”. It also talked about the “obvious connection” between inflation and high public debt ratios – which had me laughing at the time because no-one has really shown that to be a robust relationship at all. Everyone started quoting the paper, even though at the time it had obvious flaws. The predictions failed to materialise as did all the previous predictions that economists like them had failed. But the press keeps giving their views a public platform because the lurid predictions attract audiences. It is a pity because lame politicians seem to regard the predictions as being based in fact and change policies for the worse. Anyway, Rogoff is back in town predicting that the British government will run out of sterling and be forced to bring in the IMF to address the fiscal crisis. That is what the headlines say. But if you delve more deeply, his position is a little different and exposes the chicanery of mainstream economics which holds itself out as a consistent body of theory but regularly uses that pretence to bully governments into political shifts that help the elites and damage the rest of us.

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Monetary policy is not fit for purpose

I have said this many times – monetary policy is not fit for purpose and central banks should be prevented from having discretionary powers to alter rates at will. There are two levels of justification for that assertion. First, at the ideological level, a major (dominant under neoliberalism) arm of macroeconomic policy should not be outsourced to an unelected, unaccountable body of technocrats. This subverts the operation of democracies by allowing elected officials to depoliticise policy settings through their ‘pass the parcel’ approach – ‘oh the central bank is independent and we never interfere in their decisions’ type narrative. Second, on a technical level, the officials have little idea of when and what the impact will be of their policy changes. There are too many unknowns, mostly relating to the distributional consequences of interest rate changes (creditors win, debtors lose) which make it impossible to predict when the creditors will spend up their gains and debtors cut their spending. As a result, there are many examples in history of central banks moving too early (relative to their stated objective) or too late, with the outcome being that they make matters worse, particularly prolonging recessions. This situation is once again looming up in Japan at the moment.

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Has the UAE seen the writing on the wall (peak oil that is)?

A lot of the post WW2 institutional structure is being challenged at present and/or vanishing altogether. Some of the changing environment will prove to be disastrous for the world, while some of the changes are likely to be beneficial. There will also be pro and con of many of the disruptions. Tomorrow (May 1, 2026), the United Arab Emirates (UEA) will formally leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which many consider will mark the beginning of the end for the cartel that has shown at various times since it was established in 1960, that it can manipulate world oil prices to the advantage of cartel members. But OPEC has been in decline for many years and member states have been doing informally, what the UAE plans to do formally as a Non-OPEC, non-DoC member. The departure will have some negative impact on oil prices once the Iran mess ends. But the most significant aspect I think is that it marks the recognition by one of the largest oil producers that peak oil is past and they need to cash out their remaining reserves and invest in renewables before it is too late. If that is correct, and that sentiment catches on then positives might come from the decision in the medium-term.

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A structured approach for progressive political ambitions – Part 7

This is Part 7 of the short series of briefing notes that arose out of discussions I recently had in London about how a progressive political party might want to break out of the shackles that the British Labour Party has bound itself in with its obsession with fiscal rules and an adherence to the fiscal fictions of mainstream macroeconomics. The thoughts, in my view, are relevant for all aspiring progressive political parties that might have fallen prey to the fictional world of mainstream economics and cannot find a way back. In the first part, I suggested a way forward was to shift the focus of what can be done with fiscal policy away from financial matters towards an emphasis on real resource constraints – that is, what productive resources are available for public use. In this sense, the discussion becomes focused on how much nominal spending growth is possible without sparking inflationary pressures as a result of nominal spending growth outstripping the productive capacity of the economy. In Part 2, I focused on aspects of the institutional structure that should be considered to support that shift in focus, including a planning network and a return to a public employment service. In Part 3, I began an examination of the long debate about economic planning, In Part 4, I continued that discussion. In Part 5, I discussed how the age of rapid, networked communication systems eliminate the basis of the pro-market, anti-planning critics. In Part 6, I provided a detailed case study of the role that the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) in Japan played after WW2 to ensure rapid development could occur within the available real resource envelope. Today, I reflect on industry policy and the way the arch neoliberals are silently conceding defeat.

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A structured approach for progressive political ambitions – Part 6

This is Part 6 of the short series of briefing notes that arose out of discussions I recently had in London about how a progressive political party might want to break out of the shackles that the British Labour Party has bound itself in with its obsession with fiscal rules and an adherence to the fiscal fictions of mainstream macroeconomics. The thoughts, in my view, are relevant for all aspiring progressive political parties that might have fallen prey to the fictional world of mainstream economics and cannot find a way back. In the first part, I suggested a way forward was to shift the focus of what can be done with fiscal policy away from financial matters towards an emphasis on real resource constraints – that is, what productive resources are available for public use. In this sense, the discussion becomes focused on how much nominal spending growth is possible without sparking inflationary pressures as a result of nominal spending growth outstripping the productive capacity of the economy. In Part 2, I focused on aspects of the institutional structure that should be considered to support that shift in focus, including a planning network and a return to a public employment service. In Part 3, I began an examination of the long debate about economic planning, In Part 4, I continued that discussion. In Part 5, I discussed how the age of rapid, networked communication systems eliminate the basis of the pro-market, anti-planning critics. Today’s discussion focuses on the importance of institutional structure in government with a special case study of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) in Japan and the role that it played in that nation’s spectacular rise out of the ravages of World War 2 and US Occupation.

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A structured approach for progressive political ambitions – Part 5

This is Part 5 of the short series of briefing notes that arose out of discussions I recently had in London about how a progressive political party might want to break out of the shackles that the British Labour Party has bound itself in with its obsession with fiscal rules and an adherence to the fiscal fictions of mainstream macroeconomics. The thoughts, in my view, are relevant for all aspiring progressive political parties that might have fallen prey to the fictional world of mainstream economics and cannot find a way back. In the first part, I suggested a way forward was to shift the focus of what can be done with fiscal policy away from financial matters towards an emphasis on real resource constraints – that is, what productive resources are available for public use. In this sense, the discussion becomes focused on how much nominal spending growth is possible without sparking inflationary pressures as a result of nominal spending growth outstripping the productive capacity of the economy. In Part 2, I focused on aspects of the institutional structure that should be considered to support that shift in focus, including a planning network and a return to a public employment service. In Part 3, I began an examination of the long debate about economic planning, In Part 4, I continued that discussion. In Part 5, I am discussing how the age of rapid, networked communication systems eliminate the basis of the pro-market, anti-planning critics. Today’s discussion is a practical description of how cybernetics can help deal with resource constraints in a planning system.

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Interest rate hikes will not get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz more quickly

Regular readers will know that I hate the term NAIRU – or Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment – which is a concoction invented by mainstream economists to maintain unemployment at elevated levels (to keep the working class in its place) and give cover to central banks to run monetary policies that redistribute income from poor to rich. If you search through my archives you will find many posts about this abomination. I am guessing with all the supply disruptions at present as a result of the illegal invasion of Iran, central bankers will start claiming interest rates will have to rise to curb the inflation. They will dress these claims up in some economic sophistry and the official speak will talk about NAIRUs and excessive demand pressures. Yet, in reality, there is no such justification. The rate rises will not get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz more quickly, just as they did not get factories back to work during the early COVID period. Here is some analysis to support my point.

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A successful degrowth strategy will require a massive redistribution of income and wealth towards the poorest

It is true that all big cities have areas of poverty that is visible from the streets. But I am always a bit shocked when I travel to London, where I am currently working, because the inequality is very obvious. As I work more on the degrowth, decolonisation project that I am currently involved in, one thing becomes paramount. An overwhelming proportion of the total fossil fuel energy usage is due to the consumption of the wealthiest households. And to dramatically reduce our ecological footprint will require dramatically reducing the capacity of the top end of the income and wealth distributions to consume energy. However, all the trends are moving against that requirement. Here are some notes on that topic.

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Recent extended discussion with RadioMMT – Part 1

It is a public holiday in Australia today celebrating our national day – the day that the colonial powers of Britain first decided to set us up as a penal colony because they had run out of prison space in the old country due to the massive incarceration rates following the enclosures. The impoverished small scale farmers who relied on the open ‘commons’ to survive were dispossessed by the privatisation of the communal lands. They were then criminalised as a result of their poverty and starvation and shipped off to what is now Australia. A sorry start to white settlement. However, the country was settled at least 30 thousand years prior to white settlement by the first nation peoples. They call today ‘invasion day’ as do the whites who are sympathetic to their oppression (such as me). Today is thus a highly conflicted one – big street marches recognising the invasion, competing with traditional white Australia Day events, and, then, being challenged more recently by the so-called March for Australia movement rallies which are a front for neo-nazis who hate immigration and most nearly everything else. The call to abandon today as our national day and instead shift it to a date that would not cause the first nations people such angst falls on deaf ears. Anyway, today I am not writing any more but am promoting a recent discussion I had with the RadioMMT program on Melbourne’s community radio station 3CR. I will be back on Thursday with some analysis of the upcoming Japanese national election, which is providing lots of opportunities for education.

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Curbing the freedom of writers will not advance human rights

Today’s blog post is a little different to my usual posts because I am writing it as a writer rather than as an economist. I write tens of thousands of words every year and have done so for many years. People have asked me whether I enjoy spending my time in that way, given that it would seem to be quite a discipline. It is. But it is also my freedom. My freedom to express an alternative viewpoint. My freedom to publish the results of my research, framed in my own particular way. Many people hate what I write and I get a lot of hate E-mails telling me that. Anytime I mention Palestine, the hate mail floods in. I am told to delete the posts and/or die. Anytime I criticise the US, the hate comes in. I am surprised, frankly, that people have that much time on their hands, and, moreover, think that I will somehow crumple in a heap when accused of being an anti-Semite, when all I have ever done in that space, is to criticise the indecent, genocidal and illegal policies and actions of the Israeli government acting out their Zionist ideology. There is zero anti-Semite intention in that despite the way the current debate has successfully conflated the two. From one perspective, I have known ‘cancel culture’ my entire career. The dominant and destructive Groupthink in my profession has always tried to sideline my point of view. But I sense at this period of history that we are in a time where authoritarian viewpoints are once again becoming dominant in the wider society and as a writer I see the danger in that for individuals and our posterity.

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