Australian inflation episode well and truly over – please tell the RBA to stop trying to push unemployment up further

Today (November 27, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest – Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator – for October 2024, which showed that the annual inflation rate was steady at 2.1 per cent and is now at the lower end of the RBA’s inflation targetting range (2 to 3 per cent). It is clear that the residual inflationary drivers are not the result of excess demand but rather reflect transitory factors like weather events and abuse of anti-competitive, corporate power (travel fares etc). The general conclusion is that the global factors that drove the inflationary pressures have largely resolved and that the outlook for inflation is for continued decline. There is also evidence that the RBA has caused some of the persistence in the inflation rate through the impact of the interest rate hikes on business costs and rental accommodation.

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RBA monetary policy decision defies logic

Well, as I write this late in the Kyoto afternoon, Donald Trump has just made a victory speech after an incredible day of election outcomes unfolding. As I wrote last week, the only moral and reasonable position for a progressive to take in this election would be to vote for Jill Stein and send a strong message to the two major candidates that they were totally unelectable. I reject the claim that that strategy would just deliver a victory for Trump. However, the Democrats can’t really deflect blame like that for their horrendous policies in relation to the Israel issue and more. So the US faced a Hobson’s choice and I hope progressive parties elsewhere heed the message of Harris’s loss. But today I want to write a bit about yesterday’s (November 5, 2024) decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold their cash rate target interest rate (the policy rate) constant. With inflation falling quickly, there is no logic to that decision. The RBA keep claiming that there is excess demand in the economy but that is an unsupportable claim given the evidence.

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State of Climate 2024 Report signals worse is coming – like very nearly now

This is my Wednesday blog post on a Thursday, given that I spent yesterday dealing with Australia’s latest CPI data release. So today I consider a range of topics in less detail, which is my usual Wednesday practice. Today, I comment on the latest ‘State of Climate 2024’ Report just released in Australia. I also consider the view that underneath all the regional wars at present where war lords fight to gain control of failed states is a voracious surplus extraction system we just happen to call Capitalism. And then some other items that have interested me this week. And a music segment.

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The EU is in terminal decline

Some Wednesday snippets. First, I juxtapose the political machinations that the EU President is engaged in to consolidate and expand her power within the European Commission with the reality that Member State governments are becoming dysfunction because social instability and political extremism are rife. Then I reflect on my experience as Chancellor of Britain – a great success I should say, although I was told I had broken all the rules. It tells one how stupid the rules are. Then, finally, some music to enjoy.

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Video of Australian book launch of ‘Modern Monetary Theory: Bill and Warren’s Excellent Adventure’

It’s Wednesday and as usual I am writing about a few issues rather than providing a detailed analysis of a specific issue. Today, I publish the video of Australian launch of our new book – Modern Monetary Theory: Bill and Warren’s Excellent Adventure. I also comment on the current situation in the Middle East and finish with some great music from the rather odd collaboration between Oscar Peterson and Stéphane Grappelli in the early 1970s.

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Shipping disruptions unlikely to precipitate another inflation surge

It’s Wednesday and while I usually have a few topics to discuss, today I am concentrating on the recent disruptions to shipping channels and the likely impact on inflation. I was also hoping to post a video of the recent launch of my new book with Warren Mosler in Melbourne on September 12, 2024 but the editing is not quite finished. If we analyse the shipping data it is quite clear that global shipping channels are being seriously disrupted by a number of factors. Most particularly, the Suez Canal is becoming unusable while the Panama Canal is struggling with water levels following a devastating drought. The impact of the former has been for major shipping companies to divert their movements around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and costs to the freight deliveries. If we reflect on the implications, the most reasonable conclusion at this stage is that these shifts in shipping patterns are unlikely to precipitate another surge in inflation. There might be some temporary cost and price shocks but I cannot see them persisting. And, there is nothing here that is relevant to central bankers.

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Recent and upcoming elections tell us a lot about how far gone the global order is

It’s Wednesday and I am flat out finishing things today as I am off to Japan again to work once again at Kyoto University. I will keep you updated on the progress of that work and a public event that we are thinking about in November in Kyoto (or possibly Tokyo or both). For now a few thoughts on current political happenings and some administrative matters.

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The ‘MMT is dead’ crowd are silent now the yen is appreciating

It’s Wednesday and I am mostly thinking about Japan today. In just over a week’s time, I will once again head to Japan to work at Kyoto University. I will be there for several weeks and will provide regular reports as I have in previous years of what is happening there. The LDP leadership struggle is certainly proving to be interesting and there is now a view emerging that the hoped for break out from the deflationary period has not happened and further fiscal expansion is necessary. This is at a time when the yen is appreciating and the authorities are worried it is making the external sector noncompetitive. That is, light years away from the predictions made by the ‘MMT is dead’ crowd when they saw the depreciating yen during 2022 and beyond. It just goes to show that trying to interpret the world from the ‘sound finance’ lens will generally lead to erroneous conclusions.

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