Imagine that NSW was Ireland

Imagine that the state I live in NSW was for want of a better association Ireland. Imagine Victoria was Greece (a good association because Melbourne is the second largest Greek-speaking city in the world). Imagine Queensland was Spain (both enjoy considerable sun). Imagine South Australia was Portugal (both regions have world-renowned wine making industries). Imagine Tasmania is Italy (both are southern regions in the respective hemispheres). Western Australia can stay as WA although it will not be long before we can add another association (Belgium, France, Estonia?). Anyway, let’s imagine that NSW was Ireland for a moment.

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We will not pay for your crisis

As the Occupy Wall Street movement grows and is spreading to other cities in the US and other cities around the World, my profession is “feverishly” trying to discover the “financial sector” to plug into their New Keynesian models. The global financial crisis caught them out badly. Now they are fixing that “deficiency” up and we will all be better informed again once the boffins do their work. That is what the Bank of International Settlements is trying to tell us anyway. As usual, the BIS is part of the problem rather than being part of the solution. The OWS movement is a recognition of that and anything the mainstream macroeconomists dish up will only inflame the resistance further. It is becoming clear that more people daily are saying “we will not pay for your crisis”.

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Some further thoughts on the OWS movement

I have been following the Occupy Wall Street developments with interest because ultimately I consider the only reasonable way entrenched elites become unseated is if there is mass action by citizens. I do not think military coups are a very sound way to lay the groundwork for grassroots democracy. I also like the idea of a “leaderless resistance movement with people of many colors, genders and political persuasions” although politics doesn’t take long to creep in and steer movements like these in particular ways. In the last day or so I have become aware that there is some notion among the “occupiers” that the evil they are opposing is fiat currency rather than corporate power particularly that of the financial monoliths. While power does lie in the monetary system the only way of ensuring that this power is democratised is if the currency-issuing entity is freely elected and accountable to us. That is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the advancement of economic development. My input to the OWS movement is by understanding Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) we can appreciate how governments are necessary for the development process and that we have to concentrate on making the fiat currency system work for us and prevent it from being hi-jacked by the so-called 1 per cent.

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One quarter shorter, three quarters deeper

Yesterday, October 5, 2011, the UK Office of National Statistics released their Quarterly National Accounts, June 2011 for the second quarter. The data revealed an economy that barely grew at all in the period from April to June. It also showed that households are continuing to reduce their overall consumption. The data also revised earlier releases and we now learn that the UK recession was deeper (for three quarters) than previously thought but was one quarter shorter. The data release continues to demonstrate that the policy settings (which are pushing towards contraction) are completely wrong for the spending trends that are being revealed in the private and external sectors. If the British economy goes back into recession there will be only one cause – the wilfully irresponsible management of fiscal policy.

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What is Wall Street for?

Last night, I was listening to the ABC Current Affairs program PM and they were running a segment – ‘Occupy Wall Street’ protest growing and they were interviewing American journalist Jeff Madrick. At one point in the interview he said: “I hope the American establishment has the courage to ask one fundamental question; what is Wall Street for? What are they supposed to do?” The answer to those questions are in order: not much that is worth anything; and not what it was created to do.

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Britain – wrong problem, wrong solution

George Osborne, Britain’s vandalising exchequer gave his Conservative Party Conference speech yesterday in Manchester. The Transcript is courtesy of the New Statesman. Like everyone I scanned the speech for signs that the British Government was prepared to suspend its ideological arrogance for the sake of the economy, which the people had entrusted them to revive. No such luck. Instead the nation was presented with a self-satisfied denial of the basic problem that is sending the British economy into reverse gear after showing some signs of recovery about the time the national government changed hands. The problem for Britain is that the Government has outlined the wrong problem and proposed the wrong solution.

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Redistribution of national income to wages is essential

It is a public holiday in NSW today – Labour Day – which originates from the “eight hour day movement, which advocated eight hours for work, eight hours for recreation, and eight hours for rest”. History will tell you that on April 21, 1856, the stonemasons and building workers on building sites around Melbourne, Australia (my home town) laid down their tools and marched to Parliament House to call for an 8-hour day. They were successful and were the “first organized workers in the world to achieve an eight hour day with no loss of pay”. Similar action saw the spread of the 8-hour day to the other states. Now Australia is in the farcical situation where 600 thousand workers cannot get any hours of work, 750 thousand cannot get enough, and millions are coerced by employer-friendly industrial relations legislation into working more hours than they desire just to keep their jobs. In recognition of the holiday I will write less than usual! The issue surrhttps://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=16325&preview=trueounding wages and conditions of work are crucial to understanding why the world entered the crisis and why it is persisting. At present policy makers, in response to the disaster that beset them in 2007-08, are skating around the edges of reform and are refusing to recognise that they will have to engage in a wholesale abandonment of neo-liberal policies before sustainable recovery will be possible. There is no more stark demonstration of this reality than in the area of wages.

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Tripping over one’s ideological shoe laces

I’m sitting here at the airport typing away while the morning TV news in the background is showing the Australian Treasurer acknowledging that the economy is slowing and undermining his obsessive desire to achieve a budget surplus next year. Tax revenue continues to decline as activity stalls. Why? Because the Government withdrew the fiscal stimulus too early which caused real GDP growth to stall. Not to be beaten though the resolute Treasurer is now exploring further spending cuts to get the budget “back on track to surplus”. Its high comedy in one sense but high tragedy in the real sense – that unemployment is rising and employment growth falling. But the Treasurer is running with the rest of the G-20 Finance ministers and they are all tripping over their ideological shoe laces

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There was once a country named Greece

Sometimes good things come out of bad – not often but sometimes.Yesterday was an example. I merrily set off for my bit over an hour flight from Newcastle to Melbourne with meetings organised in the late afternoon. Weather fine and warm. Upon approaching Melbourne airport we were informed that there were severe storms and after circling for an hour were diverted to Canberra – half-way back to Newcastle to refuel. After an hour doing we renewed our attempt to land in Melbourne and about 45 minutes later we succeeded. Phone calls made meetings rescheduled no problems. Except the airport was in chaos and we were stranded for 3 hours on the tarmac waiting for a gate. So 8 hours after leaving Newcastle – about 21:30 we leave the plane very frustrated and tired. See ABC News report. During the extended “flight” I read a detective novel. So what is good about that? Answer: being stuck in the plane I didn’t have the opportunity to read the WSJ, the FT, IMF papers, World Bank reports – in fact, I managed to avoid reading any financial or economic material. I ate dinner at around midnight – relaxed! But I lie. I did actually read the French financial paper La Tribune which carried the story – Les détails du plan secret allemand pour sauver la Grèce – which translates to “the details of a secret German plan to save Greece”. The headline grabbed me before sleep. As the zzzz’s started to overtake me I concluded that the Eurozone will be one less nation soon – there was once a country named Greece.

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Playing Ball is not a better way

On Monday, September 26, 2011 the British Shadow Chancellor gave a speech (his first major speech in that role) to the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool. The Full Transcript of the Speech is courtesy of the New Statesman. Balls ended his speech by saying “There is a better way” and I agree – the current macroeconomic policy settings in the UK are destructive and will be regretted. The problem is that Balls’ path to prosperity is not that better way which means the British people are in the same boat as a lot of electorates – caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Playing Ball is not a better way.

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Accelerating inflation has to be out there somewhere … in the dark or somewhere

Today I was trawling through old issues of the now-defunct The Public Interest quarterly today and unfortunately stumbled on a recent issue of its successor National Affairs (Number 9, Fall 2011 edition) which carried an article – Inflation and Debt – written by Chicago economist John H. Cochrane – a known free market/anti-government commentator. It was one of those articles where the analytical framework was taken from some textbook rather than being ground in the realities of the monetary system and all the evidence pointed away from the major conjecture but the conjecture was still asserted as an inevitability. The title reflects the sort of wan, desperate need to find inflation despite vast volumes of excess capacity and zero wage pressures. Accelerating inflation has to be out there somewhere … in the dark or somewhere.

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Framing today’s leadership failure in history

It seems my attempt to escape the Lands of Austerity last week unscathed was a pipe dream. I have been slowed over the last days by a European flu of some sort. So I have less energy than usual which doesn’t tell you very much but might explain why I might write less today than on other days. I am also behind in my reading. But I did read a little over the weekend, especially the documents and statements pertaining to the IMF annual meetings, which had the effect of worsening my condition. I also dug out an old 1933 document which helped restore my equanimity. It allows us to frame today’s leadership failure in history.

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Saturday Quiz – September 24, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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The first act of fiscal consolidation – terminate the IMF funding

I am back in the land of semi-austerity and the sun is shining warmly. That is one of the advantages of living in Australia. We have mindless politicians like everywhere else but at least one can luxuriate near the beach in the sun. Let me just say at the outset that I am not against forecasting. I do it myself almost everyday and acknowledge that it is an art rather than a science – in other words forecast errors are par for the course. But a problem arises when ideology drives the forecasting process and that the forecasts are then used to perpetuate that ideology via policy development. If the underlying model of the economy that is reflective of that ideology is indelibly wrong then the policies advocated may damage the economy rather than improve it. The forecast errors will also be a sign that the underlying theory is deficient. That is exactly what occurs when the IMF produces its World Economic Outlook. If you trace the WEO forecasts for the last several years you will see how inaccurate they have been. But that hasn’t stopped the IMF from demanding fiscal austerity which has worsened the crisis. They continue to strut the world stage – bullying and claiming authority. The participating governments should terminate the IMFs tenure immediately by writing to the IMF saying that the first act of fiscal consolidation is to terminate their funding. The organisation serves no useful purpose.

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There is a great sense of denial in Europe

Over the last week or so I have been in Europe and talking to all sorts of people. In the streets the decay is clear and I am in a relatively rich part of Europe (Maastricht). Unsold properties are multiplying and the there are lots of shopping space vacant in the main centres. It is very apparent to me but when I ask people about this some express surprise – not having noticed it themselves. I concede that when you come here once a year you note the changes but the reality is fairly stark. If we put this anecdotal evidence together with the way in which the Euro bosses are behaving and the overall quality of the policy debate in Europe at present it is clear to me that there is a great sense of denial in Europe. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Germany. Their growth model has failed and must change. But it will be very difficult to achieve the sort of national awareness that will render that change possible. The Eurozone was always going to fall apart as a result of its basic design flaws from its inception. But the German strategy – which they consider to be a source of national pride – actually ensured that once the basic design flaws were exposed by the collapse of aggregate demand, things would be much worse than otherwise.

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Greece should default and exit the euro immediately

Regular readers will note that I have consistently advocated the abandonment of the Euro and especially the immediate exit of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy to push things along. The basic design flaws in the ideologically-constructed monetary union were always going to bring it down. It wasn’t a matter of if but when. The when was always going to be the first major negative aggregate demand shock that the union experienced. Come 2008 we saw very starkly how quickly the region unravelled and now the situation is getting worse not better. Not many commentators agreed with me and most argued that with some tinkering and some harsh austerity the zone could rescue itself. The problem is basic though and has little to do with behaviour of the member states, although I will write tomorrow how the conduct of the Germans has exacerbated the crisis. It is clear that governments like Spain were more frugal than Germany’s government prior to the crisis and they now have 20 per cent unemployment and worse. As the crisis deepens though more commentators are now arguing for a Greek default and/or both default and exit. The sooner the southern states get out of the bind they are and free of the pernicious ideology of the EU/IMF/ECB troika the better. Tomorrow is not a day too soon.

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The coalition of the willing

When the Liberal Democrats went into coalition with the British Tories I was surprised how readily and brazenly their leadership was prepared to compromise the underlying principles of the party for power. While the Party Constitution claims they stand for – “a fair, free and open society” balancing “the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community, and in which no-one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity” and “that the role of the state is to enable all citizens to attain these ideals, to contribute fully to their communities and to take part in the decisions which affect their lives” it is clear that they have become partners in a policy regime that is the anathema of those ideals. By entering the coalition they have allowed a pernicious regime to be inflicted on the British people – one which is driving unemployment up and incomes down. The Liberal Democrats are having their Annual Conference this weekend in Birmingham and it is clear if the utterances of some of their members are anything to go by that the Party is struggling with their identity. The Deputy Leader for example said (September 17, 2011) that the job of the Liberal Democrats was “to rein in the ruthless Tories”. The reality is that it is the government that is ruthless and the Liberal Democrats are part of that government and give it the air it needs. I was unfortunate to listen to a BBC interview today with Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg and it left me with the impression that there is little to distinguish the coalition partners on the main economic issues. Both parties are infested with neo-liberalism and both fail to understand basic macroeconomics – that spending creates income.

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Saturday Quiz – September 17, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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A tale of two labour markets

The laboratories are multiplying. We are in an interesting period – I say that in an intellectual sense only – where stark policy decisions have been taken based on certain theoretical economic claims and regular data is arriving which allows us to assess the viability of those claims. So as a researcher it is interesting. As a person I don’t find it interesting that governments are prepared to gamble with peoples’ lives in a self-serving way to appease the elites that fund them. For many years we have had Japan as an Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) laboratory. I gave a talk here in Maastricht yesterday and asked how any mainstream economic theory could explain Japan over the last two decades or so. By any standards if the mainstream macroeconomic theories were of any value then Japan should have very high interest rates and accelerating inflation and the government should have gone broke. It hasn’t and that tells you the value of mainstream theory. Now we have various fiscal austerity experiments being undertaken and the data is coming in daily to tell us that the claims made about the certainty of a “fiscal contraction expansion” are spurious. The most recent British labour force data released this week provides a very interesting laboratory terrain. Two geographic regions within the same nation, two governments (of different status) and two very different economic policy approaches. Result: one side of the border the labour market deteriorates, the other side it improves. So this blog is a tale of those two labour markets – one south of a border the other north. The data provides further evidence that fiscal austerity damages economic prosperity.

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You couldn’t make all this stuff up

Its hard to know where to start today. I opened my hard copy version of the Financial Times this morning and every page was “Greek yields off the scale”; “Greece default talk”; “Number of Americans in poverty at highest in 50 years”; “Rome set to identify next asset sales”; Fears of Greek collapse prey on French banking”; “Brics to debate possible eurozone aid”; and so it went. You couldn’t make this stuff up. To avoid sinking into an inconsolable depression, I closed the orange pages and, maybe foolishly, turned my attention to the Wall Street Journal. That came up with gems such as “Limiting the Damage of a Greek Default”; “Exit Strategy Goes Right Out the Door for Euro-Zone States”; “Yields in Italian Bond Auction Highlight Financing Challenge”; “China Not Seen as Knight Riding to Rescue of Italy”; at which point I wondered – given my current geographic location – what happens if I get stuck here? And then, to ease the day’s burden I wondered why the WSJ spells the Eurozone with a hyphen. That seemed to calm things down. Researching the use and mis-use of hyphens splitting words in two. But the thought kept lingering – this is so bizarre that you couldn’t make all this stuff up.

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