Unemployment is skyrocketing – but we have treaty obligations!

And that is the problem. The Treaty (of Lisbon) and all the related Eurozone legalities that define the way the Brussels bureaucracy interacts with the member states is incapable of delivering prosperity to its citizens. In the last week, a senior Dutch economics official (boss of very conservative Centraal Planbureau) has delivered a wake-up call to European policy makers. In his departing press briefings the CPB chief, who is no Keynesian (rather he is a rigid supply-sider) has called for flexibility with respect to the application of the fiscal rules and an easing of the planned austerity because his nation’s economic performance is deteriorating fast. The Southern malaise is now impacting on the richer, more smug northern nations, as it always was going too. Many economists remain in denial of what is happening. It is 2013 not 2009. The world has been caught up in this crisis for 5 years. It is an entrenched crisis and the data is now showing us that the recent manifestation of the crisis is being driven by fiscal austerity. The initial impacts of the GFC were large but recovery had commenced and have now been killed off by the fiscal zealots. While the departing CPB boss called on the Dutch government to ignore the Stability and Growth Pact rules for the next few years, he also observed, that the nation had “treaty obligations”. That is the problem. These obligations prevent responsible fiscal positions, which in the current circumstances, would suggest budget deficits of several more percent of GDP than the 3 per cent rule being fully supported by the ECB.

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The day the Australian media failed the public, again

For those who don’t know about cricket, it is good to get a high score in each of the innings. Just like baseball. An innings score of 350 runs in Cricket would be respectable. So imagine the headlines – Big problem, team only scores 130 runs in final innings! The whole cricket world then gets itself in a lather about this with experts blabbing on national TV about only 130 runs. As an after thought, the news bulletin also announced – “and team pulls off a thrilling victory”. Imagine, some bean counter expert coming out in the middle of a game of football and telling the teams that the game is being called off because the budget for goals had been exhausted. The two points – context with respect to meaning and aims and where does the unit of account come from – have been sadly lost in the current economic debate. Even journalists who know better have done a great disservice to the Australian public today by choosing to present an uncritical version of a report that is at best incompetent but also much worse than that. This morning Australians have been bombarded via TV, radio and the printed media with economists, appearing seriously self-important but, at the end of it all, all they are doing is making stuff up and are probably too stupid to know otherwise.

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Saturday Quiz – April 13, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Unemployment and Inflation – Part 13

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to complete the text during 2013 (to be ready in draft form for second semester teaching). Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

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Society buckled and is damaged but has never disappeared

Remember that her own party got rid of her in the end because she even became a liability to them. She was always a liability to the prosperity of the British people and despite her obsession with incentives and individual action, she undermined both by wrecking the macroeconomy in Britain. The news today is all about the death of the former British PM. There will be a lot of revisionism going on. I don’t plan on a chapter and verse discussion of the legacy of the shopkeeper’s daughter. Apart from the cruelty that was imposed on individuals, particularly the poor, her policies hollowed out the British economy and opened up the door for the parasitic financial sector to take centre stage, with the disastrous consequences that are now for all to see. I could talk about all of that. But to me the biggest impact of her period in office was that it marked the beginning of the end of the social democratic parties. Labour and the Tories became neo-liberal lookalikes. Sure enough, the Tories spoke better and had better table manners. But when the economic policy positions were distilled to their essence, the Labour Party, like so-called progressive parties everywhere, started to sound more right-winged than the Tories themselves. That is what I think is her grim legacy for the weak and the poor of the world.

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US President engaging in economic vandalism

Last week (April 5, 2013), the – US Bureau of Labor Statistics – released their latest – Employment Situation – March 2013 – which showed that in seasonally adjusted terms, total employment decreased by 206,000 in March and the labour force shrunk by a further 496,00 persons. The twin evils – falling jobs growth and declining activity. While the unemployment rate fell to 7.6 per cent (from 7.7 per cent) that is an illusory improvement. The fact is that the participation rate fell by 2 percentage points and thus hidden unemployment rose. The 290 thousand fall in official unemployment arose because the drop in employment was more than offset by the fall in the labour force. There is nothing virtuous about any of that. The facts are that it is getting harder again for Americans to get work and easier for them to lose it. The data is signalling a fairly poor outlook and hardly the time for the President to be submitting austerity budgets. But in the same week that the data came out, the President did just that. The latest budget submissions from the Administration, designed to placate the mad Republicans, is an act of economic vandalism.

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Very unintelligent indeed

I had a long flight today and other things to catch up on after the Easter period. But the stunning news yesterday from Eurostat that the EU17 unemployment rate has now risen (in February 2013) to 12 per cent. Each month’s Labour Force data sets a new record peak for the Eurozone. Each month that unemployment rises, the real GDP losses that are being deliberately created by the existing policy regime mount. As I show in this blog, those losses are enormous and will never be regained – that income has been lost forever. The human dimensions of the crisis are also huge. And the evidence mounts that the conceptual underpinning of the policy framework doesn’t hold water. This is an extraordinary period of history where a flawed theoretical approach which doesn’t stack up when confronted with the data, is being used to create a flawed monetary system design, which has failed categorically when judged against any reasonable criteria of social purpose, and then the leaders impose even worse policy designs over that failure. Sometime in the future, humans will judge the current generation to be very unintelligent indeed.

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Saturday Quiz – March 30, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Saturday Quiz – March 23, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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British Budget – verging on delusion

The Olympics have come and gone. No doubt the event gave some macroeconomic respite to the British economy because major events bring immediate spending and spending drives output and national income. But the fourth-quarter 2012 real GDP data showed that the British economy had contracted by -0.3 per cent. Household final consumption expenditure slowed throughout 2012 as private investment growth contracted over the second-half of 2012. Further, despite the hope that the fiscal austerity would be painless as a result of a boost in net exports, especially given the depreciation in the British currency, the data showed the the current account deficit increased as a result of a fall in exports over 2012. It was in this context that the British government brought down the – 2013 Budget – which provides no path out of this malaise. At a time when the correct economic strategy would have included a political admission that the previous 3 budgets were detrimental interventions for the British economy and a commitment to some discretionary stimulus, the British government chose to adopt a neutral position in the coming financial year, which when taken in perspective just maintains the contractionary bias of fiscal policy. The mismanagement of the British economy thus continues.

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Huge deficits are the real problem

I am still reeling from the incompetence of the EU, the German’s who pushed the deal, the ECB and the IMF who thought they could get away with stealing ordinary deposits when they had made such a big deal early on in the crisis that guaranteeing deposits below 100k Euros was an essential part of their financial stability reforms. The mind boggles as to how stupid those decision makers are. They are so blinded by ideology that they have lost a grip on their own narrative and certainly on reality. I notice the Troika rats are pointing the blame at each other for the disastrous judgement that was exercised in the package design. And, not one Cypriot politician voted in favour of the package. The bird on both hands (stereo effect) to the Troika. And you will note I haven’t said a word about Russian oligarchs and money laundering. That is a side-show in all of this. Anyway, I needed a rest from that so turned my attention to the US labour market as I was updating the latest February 2013 labour force data and examining where things are at. I did this as I thought about the debates in the US about the budget. I think many of the politicians might have been drinking the same Kool Aid as the Troika. They have also lost a grip on reality.

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Growth and jobs are things governments can buy and summon

I left out the word not between the words “are” and “things” and replace the “or” with “and” between buy and summon. Otherwise this would have been the latest piece of insight offered by the outgoing EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy, who appears to be intellectually stretched when it comes to the most basic macroeconomic concepts despite regularly making comments that appear to be of a macroeconomic nature. Let me remind him: spending equals income and output. Growth in spending when there is massive (and rising) excess real productive capacity will generate growth in income and output. Growth in income and output almost certainly generate growth in employment. And, just in case we might be worried that any crowded-in productivity growth reduces the employment dividend and, cogniscant of the fact that there are millions of relatively unskilled workers without jobs in Europe at present, governments around the region could employ all of them if they introduced an unconditional Job Guarantee. Governments can create extra real growth and jobs anytime they choose unless the economy is already at full employment. Then they would not want to anyway. So the question that Mr Van Rompuy should be answering is why he is overseeing government machinery that refuses to give the governments this capacity. That is a question none of them will answer.

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Troika Technical Manual: How to wreck (another) country?

Cyprus is a small country of some 839 thousand people. It joined the Eurozone on January 1, 2008. That decision sealed its fate. Now the Troika are making it pay for that mistake, one that the Troika lured it into making. Such is the way of the Eurozone. The elites set the system up to suit their ideological preferences. Lure the local national elites who aspire to wine and dine in style in Brussels into becoming pro-Euro. Then attack the ordinary folks when the system collapses. But as we know, the Eurozone was a system designed to fail as soon as the first major negative aggregate demand shock hit. The shock hit in 2008. The system failed. Since then the elites have been divining ways to push the costs of those mistakes onto those who are least able to pay. How many Euro decision-makers are unemployed as a result of the crisis? How many Euro decision-makers who have since retired have lost any pension entitlements? But now the citizens of Cyprus are having their savings plundered by the Troika. The shamelessness seems to have no bounds. It is not even a strategy that will deliver the outcomes they have defined. The elites go from one blunder to the next and meanwhile all the key economic targets continue to deteriorate (like employment growth etc). And even the irrelevant targets that are the obsession of the elites also move in the opposite direction to that intended. If it wasn’t so tragic it would be the comedy of the century.

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Saturday Quiz – March 9, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Australian national accounts – oh, the irony

The Australian economy grew in trend terms by 1 per cent in the December-quarter 2011, 0.9 per cent in the March-quarter 2012, 0.8 per cent in the June-quarter 2012, 0.7 per cent in the September-quarter 2012, and in today’s Australian Bureau of Statistics – Australian National Accounts – data covering the December-quarter 2012, the real GDP growth figure was 0.6 per cent. Further, the two main growth drivers in the December-quarter – Net exports (0.6 percentage points) and Public Investment (1.1 percentage points) – will not endure. Outlook: poor. But the irony is that while the Federal government is doing its best to undermine the economy by imposing fiscal austerity, it was the public corporations at the State/Local government level that provided the public capital infrastructure boost. Without this government spending support, the Australian economy would be in a deepening recession! I wonder what those who say that public spending undermines growth would say today! Gravity denial would be out in full force. I will keep my ears peeled and report back on the more ingenious contributions. While the spin is that the economy grew at 3 per cent over 2012, which is true, the forward-looking assessment is that the national growth rate is running around 2 to 2.5 per cent and falling, which is already well below trend. Employment growth was flat and real net national disposable income fell sharply in the December-quarter. The terms of trade, which has been helping to drive growth in the external sector also fell sharply. The State and Territory Final Demand data also shows that the East Coast and South Australia area, where the vast majority of the population lives and seeks work is now in recession. The outlook is decidedly negative.

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Saturday Quiz – March 2, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Learning standards in economics – Part 3

This is Part 3 (and the final part) of my mini-series of blogs – “Learning Standards in Economics”. In this blog I consider the way in which learning standards have evolved in the United Kingdom. I propose that they privilege the curriculum development in favour of a monistic approach – which biases programs to advance the competiive, neo-classical model as the way the real world operates. These standards deter universities from offering pluralistic approaches to economics that promote its broad social science qualities. The narrow monist approach, of-course, serves to reinforce the neo-liberal dominance in economic policy making. Such an approach has been one of the principle reasons the world is mired in financial and economic crisis and doesn’t appear to be able to find a way out. The policy framework being imposed by governments is closing the door to growth and increasing unemployment and poverty rates. It is based on the mainstream textbook models that dominate economics education. I hope the Australian exercise in developing so-called “learning standards in economics” will reject the neo-classical textbook monistic approach and come out in favour of a radical rethink of the way economics is taught in Australian universities. However, given the real politic that surrounds these exercises and the bodies that are key players in the development of the standards I won’t be holding my breath on that one.

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Learning standards in economics – Part 2

Today is Part 2 of my little mini-series on “Learning standards in economics”. It might appear to be a break in continuity from yesterday’s blog but when I get around to Part 3, I think you will see the way in which today’s discussion fits well. Last month (January 24, 2013), the Peter Peterson Foundation – which is just a propaganda front for people with too much money and influence designed to advance spurious ideas about the economy – released a statement – College Students Launch Campaigns Across the Country to Activate a New Generation on the Nation’s Fiscal Challenges. When I delved into what it was about the story became very mirky indeed. Teams of students are being assembled under the banner of what we might call the “we are self-important and want to show it” banner and being coaxed into action The essential part of education – the search for knowledge – is the missing part. The myth that the US government is going broke is the starting point not the enquiry.

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Saturday Quiz – February 23, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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One Ferrari does not a recovery make

I thought that blog title today was appropriate given that Aristotle was Greek. Today I explore motor vehicle registrations – well to be exact, a single registration. That is a backdrop to a brief discussion about the OECD’s latest publication – Going for Growth 2013 Report – which takes the ludicrous to a new level. These organisations need to be closed and the cash that governments pump into them to provide very amenable – some would say, over the top – working conditions (high pay, no tax obligations, well supported travel, first class facilities etc) could be diverted into something more useful. Like provide some low-paid workers with jobs. Lets assume one OECD manager earns the same wage as about 20 low-paid workers per week. The trade-off 1 job lost for 20 gained sounds a good bet to me. Anyway, amidst all the talk about structural agendas and reform zeal there is an ugly truth. There has to an easing of the macroeconomic constraint that is preventing economies from generating enough jobs. Firms need to see spending before they will increase production. Making life harder for workers through cuts to wages, conditions of work, pensions and the like will not create a single job. I lie – at least one job. Some OECD official will get assigned the job of evaluating their work and then a renewed bout of lies will emerge clothed in techno-speak. I just know that one Ferrari does not a recovery make. It tells me that the world is turning for the worse.

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