Martin Feldstein should be ignored

I am still away from my office and have had a full-day of meetings today – so very little time to write. But earlier today I read another one of those articles from a senior US academic economist about the need to cut aged pensions in the US because the government is running out of money. Martin Feldstein – a Harvard professor – has been found to have engaged in highly questionable conduct (to say the least) by investigations into the causes of the financial crisis. Feldstein must surely know that the government cannot run out of money. Which brings into question his motivation for providing misleading interventions into the policy debate. He has demonstrated over a long period his willingness to hide behind the “authority” of economic theory in order to pursue an ideological obsession with privatisation and deregulation. When writing what seemed to be academic papers or opinion pieces supporting financial deregulation, for example, he didn’t at the same time declare that he was personally gaining from such a policy push. His subsequent track record as a board member of companies, some of which collapsed in the crisis (AIG) or triggered the collapse has been appalling. Feldstein is not the sort of person anyone should take advice from much less pay for it.

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I don’t wanna know one thing about evil

Yes, I only want to know about love … which brings me to the royal wedding today which seems to be dominating the media over here. So I am focusing on Britain today. The British monarchy has banned Australian comedians making any commentary on the wedding which seems to miss the point. I wish the couple well as I do all wedded couples – marriage is a great institution – but at the same time there’s something base about millions of public dollars going into this flippancy at the same time as the British government is undermining the prosperity of its own nation and committing millions to remain jobless and moving towards poverty. So here’s my royal wedding commentary which can be summarised by – I don’t wanna know about evil …

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US Federal Reserve chairman loses his independence

Having heard the “historic” Press Conference held by Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank (April 27, 2011), I confirm the advice I gave on December 20, 2009 that – Bernanke should quit or be sacked. During that conference he chose to wade into the fiscal policy debate claiming that the priority of the US government was to reduce its budget deficit by cutting spending. He gave no justification for those statements and there is no supporting research paper available which might give us a clue as to the rationale for this extraordinary intervention into the policy debate. The fact is that Bernanke is another mainstream macroeconomics stooge who in my view has chosen to abuse his position of power to misinform and distort the policy debate. It is clear that the US Federal Reserve chairman has lost his independence and even mainstream economists who put the concept of independence on a pedestal of virtue should be calling for his resignation.

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When you’ve got friends like this … Part 5

Today I continue my theme “When you’ve got friends like this” which focuses on how limiting the so-called progressive policy input has become in the modern debate about deficits and public debt. Today is a continuation of that theme. The earlier blogs – When you’ve got friends like thisPart 0Part 1Part 2Part 3 and Part 4 – serve as background. The theme indicates that what goes for progressive argument these days is really a softer edged neo-liberalism. The main thing I find problematic about these “progressive agendas” is that they are based on faulty understandings of the way the monetary system operates and the opportunities that a sovereign government has to advance well-being. Progressives today seem to be falling for the myth that the financial markets are now the de facto governments of our nations and what they want they should get. It becomes a self-reinforcing perspective and will only deepen the malaise facing the world. Today I focus on the Peoples’ Budget proposal recently released by the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) in the US.

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Vignettes of madness

It is the Easter holidays and I am not writing as much today. But there have been some stunning examples of how mad the world has become with respect to matters economic. I present three vignettes of such madness which highlight the way in which lies and outright lies are dominating the policy agendas of governments at the expense of workers and their families. It is also raining outside and getting cooler so good weather for sitting down and writing – holiday notwithstanding.

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Saturday Quiz – April 23, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Who the cap fits?

In his recent New York Times column (April 21, 2011) – What Are Taxes For? – continues to engage with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) but trips up because his mainstream view (dressed up as a progressive) reveals serious flaws in reasoning about the way a fiat currency system operates viz-a-viz the former monetary system based on convertibility via some commodity standard. In this blog I correct some of the analytical mistakes that appear in that article. Krugman concludes by claiming that he is really disturbed by those who don’t get mainstream logic – and is especially upset by “a lot of people with Ph.D.s in economics who can throw around a lot of jargon, but when push comes to shove, have no coherent picture whatsoever of how the pieces fit together”. My only response is to look in a mirror Paul or in the words of Bob Marley ask “who the cap fits”.

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It is getting ridiculous

I imagine it goes like this. Your driving along listening to the radio and the Australia Treasurer comes on and is saying that we need a budget surplus because we have a once-in-a-hundred years mining boom and are near full capacity but given the government tax take is seriously below the forward estimates because growth is slowing, the government has to have even more drastic cuts in spending in the upcoming May budget than first thought. Why? To achieve the budget surplus! Then the Opposition spokesperson for matters economic says we are running out of money. And us ordinary citizens take it all in because it is headline news this lunchtime and we become entrapped by the logic of the situation as set out by the journalist who fuels the discussion along these lines. The only problem is that I am not an ordinary citizen in this context. The problem lies in the starting premise – the blind pursuit of the budget surplus. All the rest of the nonsense follows from that ill-conceived goal. It is getting ridiculous though.

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Austerity proponents should adopt a Job Guarantee

If anybody knows David Cameron’s mobile phone number give him a call and tell him that as he scorches the British economy (more bad news about consumer sentiment yesterday) he should also introduce a Job Guarantee as a way of using the workers he declares irrelevant more productively. A Job Guarantee is the perfect accompaniment to a full-blown fiscal austerity program and will not compromise any ideological beliefs except those that say that some people should be unemployed. But how could I advocate this? Doesn’t the Job Guarantee require a demand expansion? Isn’t that the whole point of it? Answer: no! Recommendation: Austerity proponents should adopt a Job Guarantee. Am I mad? Answer: probably but read on …

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Saturday Quiz – April 16, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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These were not Keynesian stimulus packages

Progressives who comment on macroeconomic matters invariably invoke the ghost of John Maynard Keynes as a motivating influence presumably because the popular perception – albeit shallow – is that Keynes supported generalised fiscal expansion in times of high unemployment. A striking example of this “association” is the recent Australian Fabian Society essay (April 11, 2011) by the Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan – Keynesians in the recovery.

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Australian Labor Government abandons its roots

Last night (April 13, 2011) the Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard gave a speech to the right wing think tank – the Sydney Institute – entitled The Dignity of Work. The Sydney Institute has taken positions in the past which include supporting the labour market deregulation (removal of trade union privileges); financial deregulation; need for budget surpluses in times of prosperity; privatisation; welfare reform (emphasising private solutions); the expansion of private education at the expense of public education and more. So it is a strange place to give a lecture on the dignity of work. The labour market policies which the Sydney Institute has supported have undermined workers’ rights, held back the growth of real wages, and been responsible for a massive redistribution of income from wages to profits over the 20 or 30 years.

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The full employment fiscal deficit condition

Many readers ask me to provide a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) rule for sound fiscal management. I had done this often but apparently not concisely enough. It is important to understand what the limits on fiscal deficits are in term of prudent fiscal practice given that terms such as fiscal sustainability, fiscal consolidation, fiscal austerity are in the media almost every day without fail. The mainstream version of fiscal responsibility is based on false premises and is not an applicable guide for sovereign governments to base their policy decisions on. MMT provides a coherent fiscal position for governments to aim for. In this blog, I juxtapose that position with the sort of narrative that is now coming out of the OECD with renewed vigour – after they went a bit quiet once it was clear they were exposed by the magnitude of the economic crisis. But they are back, strutting and arrogant as before and threatening the jobs of millions. So here is the full employment fiscal deficit condition that makes a mockery of the IMF and OECD narratives.

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Are they all lining up to be Japan?

Everyone is lining up to be the next Japan – the lost decade or two version that is. It has been taken for granted that Japan collapsed in the early 1990s after a spectacular property boom burst and has not really recovered since. The conservatives also claim that Japan shows that fiscal policy is ineffective because given its on-going budget deficits and record public debt to GDP ratios the place is still in shambles. I take a different view of things as you might expect and while Japan has problems it demonstrates that a fiat monetary system is stable and we should be careful comparing Ireland, the US or the UK to the experiences that unfolded in Japan in the 1990s and beyond.

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66,592 children relieved of debt burdens by their parents

Over the weekend, Iceland once again showed some pluck and rejected an onerous agreement to repay debts incurred by the failed private banks to the British and Dutch governments. The Icelandic government has been trying to lumber the population with these debts largely because the politicians aspire to join the Eurozone and they have been willing to sacrifice the welfare of their own population in pursuit of that misguided goal. According to Iceland Statistics there are (as at January 1, 2011) – 318,452 people living in Iceland with 23,596 between the age of 0-4 years; 21,194 in the 5-9 years cohort and 21,802 10-14 year olds. That is 66,592 children that the people of Iceland have decided not to burden with debt obligations.

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Saturday Quiz – April 9, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Australian labour force data – some positive signs

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the Labour Force data today for March 2011 which sends some very positive signals unlike the mixed news we have been receiving over the last few months. Overall, my interpretation of the data is that the labour market is adding jobs and providing some modest scope to reduce the huge pool of unemployed. Full-time and part-time employment growth was positive and the participation rate rose slightly – a virtuous duet. Total hours of work rose for the month. But despite the media narrative that we are now “below” full employment. The bank economists were claiming this meant that the RBA should put interest rates up. My view is that there is a lot of slack left in the economy. A stunning aspect of this observation is that teenagers continue to suffer employment losses having lost 86 thousand jobs overall since the crisis then recovery began. The other reality is that employment growth is barely keeping pace with population growth so unemployment is hovering at high levels – at at time when we should be really eating into it. Given related data series recently, the RBA would be mad to increase the interest rate.

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It is time to get angry

Today I catch up on a number of threads that have been in the media in the last week or so. It is all bad. The focus is on Alan Greenspan’s extraordinary intervention into the policy debate declaring the financial sector unable to be effectively regulated. I have a solution for that! But as I read the data trends every day and listen to the politicians outlining their legislative ambitions I realise that there have not been many lessons learned at all. The neo-liberals are back in charge – unshamed – when they should have been driven out of every town in every land. Their leading lights are coming out of their rat holes and are once again lecturing us on how self-regulated markets are best and how we have to tolerate the occasional crisis as part of the wealth maximisation process. It beggars belief how this all is represented as credible policy input. It is time to get angry.

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