I am travelling today and then have commitments at the other end. So very little time to write. But I did read some interesting papers over the weekend which bear on the question of whether fiscal policy in the US was effective or not. The neo-liberals (mainstream macroeconomists) claim that fiscal policy is not effective. The extremists among them invoke – Ricardian Equivalence – which claims that private households and firms fear that the rising deficits will require higher tax rates and so they save more now – which means that for every dollar of new government spending there is a dollar less of private spending – so no effect. All the evidence contradicts the extreme view. There is also mounting evidence that the recent fiscal interventions have been very effective. A study I read yesterday went a step further and analysis the impact of targetting low income groups. They found that type of public spending was very expansionary. Their results support my contention that a Job Guarantee would be a very effective (and cheap) fiscal solution (as a first step) to a private spending collapse. But for all the naysayers – sorry, the evidence is mounting that fiscal policy saved the world.

I have said it before that when the facts get in the way of mainstream economic theory – which is just about always – the professors (my peers) tell their students that the facts are wrong. They have a pathological obsession with hanging on to their theories. Apart from the arrogance that accompanies this I have never really been able to work it out. As a tenured professor I could overnight become an adherent of the Austrian School or whatever and my job wouldn’t be threatened. A tradesperson who loses his/her skills has a problem. But academic life is different. We can explore new ideas any time we choose and take time to develop the news skills commensurate with these ideas. That, in part, is what research is all about. So it is more about their unwillingness to let go of what are essentially religious beliefs that leads the mainstream economists to constantly pump out rubbish and lie when they are found out (by the facts). The overwhelming fact is that the push for austerity is not based on any evidence-based understanding of how the system works. It is driven by stylised economic models that bear no relation to the real world and fail when confronted with data from the real world. As the clock ticks by – tick tock tick tock – the evidence mounts that nations that introduce austerity fare poorly.

I have been travelling the last two days and have disrupted work patterns. But I did manage to read a few things in between other things today which made my hair stand on end and suggest that the austerity debate has moved ground. So desperately lacking is the real evidence which might support the economic claims the conservatives have been using to justify their manic desire to savage public spending when there is 10 per cent unemployment (and worse) – that the deficit terrorists are now appealing to morality – that public deficits and debt are immoral. It makes you wonder why these characters just don’t become stand-up comedians. But given how dangerous they are as a result of their positions in government it is clearly not a laughing matter. I would seek to try these characters for crimes against humanity when it becomes obvious to everyone how wrongful their actions are. It is interesting though – the descent into “moral” arguments means that you can conclude that even the conservatives know that the bevy of economic arguments that they use to justify their damaging policies are nonsense. But there is a new emerging problem. As I write today the entrenched unemployment that the deficit terrorists are now acknowledging they will cause to worsen is giving rise to employers discriminating against the most disadvantaged workers that are seeking work. What this tells us is that the employers have too much power.

The title of today’s blog comes from an interesting article I read today in the UK Guardian (February 14, 2011) – The revenge of trickle-down economics – by retired American economist Richard Wolff. It is worth reading. As Wolff noted the persistently high unemployment, loss of income and output and increased poverty in the US and elsewhere is “an irrational economic absurdity”. The problem is simple to solve from an economic perspective. The US government has all the capacity it needs to offer jobs to all those who want them but are unemployed. The wages they paid would flow back into the spending system and stimulate further job creation. Before long, investment would strengthen and firms would be bobbing up from all over to get a share of the action. All it needs is a kick-start and the government is the only sector that can provide it. The alternative is a slow, muddling recovery with millions left behind jobless and penniless in the process. That is no place to be and is just an irrational economic absurdity.

On February 11, 2011, the IMF’s independent evaluation unit – Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) – released a report – IMF Performance in the Run-Up to the Financial and Economic Crisis: IMF Surveillance in 2004-07 – which presents a scathing attack on the Washington-based institution. It concluded that the Fund was poorly managed, was full of like-minded ideologues and employed poorly conceived models. In a previous report the IEO had demonstrated how inaccurate the IMF modelling has been. But the IMF is an organisation that goes into the poorest nations and bullies them into harsh policy agendas which the IEO has now found to be based on poor theory and inadequate model implementation. That makes the IMF more than an incompetent and biased organisation. In my view it makes them culpable. Who is going to pay?

If you watch the 1937 cartoon – I Wanna Be a Sailor – it doesn’t take much imagination to think of the first two young parrots on the perch who are being taught their “skills” by a somewhat vexed mother parrot to be mainstream economists and the financial commentators who parrot these economists. Repeat after me: Polly wants a cracker – the Budget deficit is on an unsustainable trajectory – Polly wants a cracker – there is a mountain of public debt that threatens America’s future – Polly wants a cracker. If only these economists would take the lead of the third little parrot being coached by his mother. When he is exhorted to recite the mindless mantra that is expected of him he says “I don’t want a cracker see, I wanna be a sailor like my pop … see” … we need more commentators who will ask the right questions – challenge the politicians and their lackeys to explain what they mean rather than talk as if it is too complex for us to comprehend. It is not complex at all – spending equals income – if the private sector goes on holiday the public sector better be around town. If the private sector stays on holidays – the public deficit will persist. Otherwise – recession occurs and unemployment increases. The problem is that the mainstream commentators and the economists that provide them with the copy haven’t got off the perch yet and recite the same mindless stuff day-in, day-out. Polly wants a cracker.

Today the Australian government demonstrated how poor their grasp of macroeconomics is and how badly they are managing our economy. In response to the very destructive floods that have ravaged the most populated states on the east coast (Queensland, NSW and Victoria) and wiped out billions in income-generating assets and businesses, they decided to increase taxes to “pay” for the reconstruction relief. This is at at time when the economy is slowing, inflation is moderating and the banks cannot get enough treasury debt to satisfy their prudential requirements. Further, it is at a time when there are 12.5 per cent of willing labour resources lying idle and long-term unemployment is rising. I noted in yesterday’s blog – Its grim on both sides of the Atlantic – that things are really bleak in the UK (now contracting again courtesy of its government policies) and in the US (about to contract courtesy of its government’s mismanagement). In both cases, the malaise is being caused by a dysfunctional ideology being imposed by policy makers onto very fragile economies. Well it seems that the madness along the coastlines of the Atlantic has crossed the Pacific. The imposition of a flood levy is a nonsensical and destructive policy act.

I have been sick today which is rare and have had trouble remaining vertical for very long. So the blog is a little shorter than usual. Just as well the subject matter might have disrupted my recovery. I note the UK economy is being deliberately sabotaged by its elected representatives which seems to conjure up a very weird construction of what we elect governments for. And in that context, the deficit terrorists are ramping up their calls for major fiscal retrenchment in the US. I thought Americans could read English – maybe they missed the British Office of National Statistics National Accounts release – it is pretty obvious – real GDP growth now negative again courtesy of a negative contribution from government in the December quarter. And the terrorists seem to want the same for the US. Its grim on both sides of the Atlantic.

As the days go by we begin to realise the huge scale of the problem that the floods in Northern Australia are presenting our country. Whole communities are being forced to leave their homes and major disruptions to economic activity (in very important regions) are being experienced. The floods are being labelled the worst in Australian history (well the white European occupation of indigenous land history) although that depends on the area – certainly the worst since the early 1950s. The areas that are affected are major sugar, coal, iron-ore and food production regions. So real GDP growth will be reduced and this will exacerbate the already slowing economy. What should be the correct federal government response? Answer: to expand the budget deficit (via discretionary spending increases) to ensure that essential public infrastructure is replaced and private economies are able to function again. What is the current federal government contemplating? Answer: spending cuts. My assessment of this: they have no credibility as fiscal managers.