How to fail a simple macroeconomics examination

In the opening sequence of the HBO series, Newsroom, the anchor is participating in a public forum at an East coast US university (in Boston). During the Q&A, he is asked by a student (“a sorority girl”) in the audience, who is suitably bright-eyed and full of American blather, “Is America the greatest country in the world?” He initially blusters but the convener of the forum pushes him for a “human moment” and what follows is 3 classic minutes of TV, starting with “its not the greatest country in the World, Professor, that’s my answer” and concluding with “So when you ask what makes us the greatest country in the World, I don’t know what the fuck you are talking about. Yosemite?”. He then said among other things that “We used to be …”, “we stood up for what was right”, “we waged wars on poverty, not poor people”, “we aspired to intelligence, we didn’t belittle it” and more. The latest shenanigans in the US Congress where the GOP representatives have become a mindless rabble is certainly testimony to the sort of things the mythical Newsroom anchor was talking about in the series. The Sydney Morning Herald article (October 16, 2013) – US shutdown stalemate enters realm of the absurd – reports on how the GOP reps do not “agree either on tactics or strategy” and Boehner announced to the press that there had been “no decisions about what exactly we will do”. This is one day before the lunatic right-fringe of their party is intent on causing mayhem. My prediction – some ridiculous deal will be done and the US government will not default. We will see. But today I am providing a little glimpse into examination processes by using what might have been a first-year answer to an examination question to highlight some important points. I hope you enjoy the little window into life at a university.

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Saturday Quiz – October 12, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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GOP reps – if they had another brain it would be lonely

I have been watching in my spare time (yes) the 2010 first season of the HBO series – The Newsroom – which could be about events in US this week, so persistent has been the moronic behaviour that nations’ polity. There is growing evidence that the US Republicans are now an extremist party with a substantially tenuous grip on reality. They clearly do not understand that an economic depression is likely to follow their refusal to prevent the US Treasury to continue spending according to the current laws that the US Congress passed and which, together with the tax code, determine the current deficit. They clearly do not understand how deficits arise and the function they serve. The US might hold themselves out to be the world leaders in a range of areas but this debate is revealing how stupid the government representatives have become.

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A Job Guarantee job creates the required extra productive capacity

Even though the US government has shutdown, the BLS is still open for data downloads. That is something. More on that data another day. Today I have been working on a formal academic paper (to be presented at a conference in December) which examines the concept of “capacity-constrained” unemployment. This concept says that capacity constraints may create bottlenecks in production before unemployment has been significant reduced (this would be exacerbated if there are significant procyclical labour supply responses). In this case any expansion in government demand may have insignificant real effects – that is, the real output gap is not large enough to allow all the unemployed to gain productive jobs. This argument is often use to attack the Job Guarantee. It can be shown that while private sector investment, which is government by profitability considerations can be insufficient (during and after a recession) to expand potential output fast enough to re-absorb the unemployed who lost their jobs in the downturn, such a situation does not apply to a currency-issuing government intent on introducing a Job Guarantee. The point is that the introduction of a Job Guarantee job simultaneously creates the extra productive capacity required for program viability.

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Twin Deficits and Sustainability Of Budget Deficits – Part 1

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to publish the text sometime early in 2014. Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

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Continuous and larger budget deficits are required

There is a popular segment (that is, I assume it to be popular) on the national ABC television news in Australia each night. the Finance Report presents one or more graphs which motivate the presenters so-called insights into what is going on in the Australian economy. I rarely see it and when I do I tend to ignore it because the presenter is infuriating to say the least. But last night, he presented to charts which were of interest although the conclusions he drew left the “elephant” that was standing in the room unnoticed. The conclusions he drew were facile and he ignored the most obvious conclusion – that the Australian economy could only maintain growth into the future if the budget deficit was larger and on-going. That would have been a bridge too far for him to cross but that is what his data and all the other related data that he didn’t present tells us. Us – in this context – being those who understand how the macroeconomy works. So today’s blog is a reprise of the graphs (or my versions of them) with the essential commentary that might have been presented last evening and would have helped the viewers appreciate the current economic situation more fully and understand why deficits are essential in these situations.

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Disingenuous at best

In light of the – An Open Letter from Howard Schultz, ceo of Starbucks Coffee Company – which contains “a respectful request that customers no longer bring firearms into our stores or outdoor seating areas”, I felt it necessary to request that all readers of my blog leave all weapons (guns, rocket launchers and any other armaments that you carry on a regular basis) away from their side when they read my blog. Otherwise, violence might erupt as the arrogance of the neo-liberals scales new heights – five years into the crisis. To get your ire up several notches, you might read the latest article (September 16, 2013) by Greg Palast – Larry Summers: Goldman Sacked (thanks Gustavo). Remember keep your weapons out of reach! Then you might reflect (keeping as calm as you can) on the latest offering from the German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble in the Financial Times (September 16, 2013) – Ignore the doomsayers: Europe is being fixed. The triumphalism throughout the article demonstrates to me that Mr Schäuble has standards of excellence that lie well below what is conventionally considered to be (barely) reasonable. What he uses as the benchmark for defining mediocrity is beyond imagination. These are crazy times – when these economic criminals walk the streets at large, puffed up by their own arrogance and delusion, slapping themselves and their mates on the back, demanding credit for the human wreckage that their actions created, made worse and ensured will span generations. While we see youth unemployment rates of 62.5 per cent and rising suicide rates, these characters see glory and fulfillment. A most strange period of history and future generations will reflect on these apes poorly.

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Australian Labour Force – bad and getting worse

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for August 2013 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics tells me two things. First, it presents the case for why we had to change our federal government last weekend. The Labor Party had abandoned their responsibility for keeping unemployment low. Their obsession with achieving a budget surplus (they failed) deliberately undermined employment growth and has led to tens of thousands of Australians losing their jobs. Second, the new conservative government is going to have to shed its own ideological obsession with cutting deficits if it is to create an environment of robust employment growth and reduce unemployment. Its deregulation mantras will just make matters worse. I am not confident. We had the three evils in August – contracting employment, rising unemployment and a contracting labour force (via a further fall in the participation rate). Employment growth has negative now been negative for the last three months (a recession!) and in August both full-time employment and part-time employment contracting. Total employment is now lower than it was 6 months ago. Unemployment is rising towards 6 per cent as the weak employment growth fails to keep pace with the underlying population growth. Hidden unemployment also rose as more people gave up looking for work in an environment where job opportunities are shrinking rapidly. The broad labour underutilisation data from the ABS for the August quarter (released today) show sharp rises in both unemployment and underemployment. The broad rate of labour wastage is now 13.7 per cent. Add to this the impacts of the falling participation rate and the figure would be above 15 per cent. This data signals an urgent need for fiscal stimulus to reverse the negative trend. Unfortunately, with both sides of politics are locked into an austerity mindset the situation is likely to deteriorate further.

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Voting on a lie

Tomorrow, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the June-quarter National Accounts for Australia. In the lead up to this release, we get some information about the components of national expenditure and the contribution to the final real GDP growth result that will be released tomorrow. Last week, we learned, courtesy of the release – Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, June 2013 – That seasonally adjusted new capital expenditure and fallen by 2.3 per cent in the year to June 2013. This is off an extremely high base and suggests that the investment boom associated with the mining sector is winding down, albeit steadily. Today, the ABS released the latest – Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, June 2013 – which showed a widening Current Account deficit (by 7 per cent) with the surplus on the trade part of the account falling by 2 per cent. In volume terms, it is estimated that the external deficit would reduce real GDP growth by 0.04 percentage points. That is, a modest spending drain from the domestic economy.

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The stupidity of the German ideology will come back to haunt them

There was an interesting article in the Financial Times last week (August 29, 2013) – The German miracle is now running out of road – about the myopia of policy settings in Germany. The FT author was Sebastian Dullien, who has been consistently presenting the case that Germany is not a role model for the rest of Europe to follow. For example, see – A German model for Europe?. He notes that by targetting a budget surplus in a period of fiscal austerity, the Germans are undermining the very factors which made their manufacturing sector some strong. Their public investment in education and infrastructure is now lagging so much that the costs of business are rising in Germany and the long-term consequences of this are likely to be very damaging. The stupidity of the German ideology will come back to haunt them.

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There is a class warfare and the workers are not winning

The Politics of Envy – that old chestnut from the neo-liberals – is bandied around every time there is any insinuation that the capitalist system produces distributional outcomes that are not remotely proportional to the effort put into production. Whenever governments challenge the distributional outcomes – for example, propose increasing taxes on the higher income recipients (note I don’t use the word “earners”) there is hell to cry and the defense put up always appeals to the old tags – “socialist class warriors undermining incentive”, “envy”, etc. In the 1980s, when privatisation formed the first wave of the neo-liberal onslaught, we all apparently became “capitalists” or “shareholders”. We were told that it was dinosauric to think in terms of the old class categories – labour and capital. That was just so “yesterday” and we should just get over it and realise that we all had a stake in a system where reduced regulation and oversight would produce unimaginable wealth, even if the first manifestations of this new “incentivised” economy channelled increasing shares of real income to the highest percentiles in the distribution. No worries, “trickle-down” would spread the largesse. We know better now – and increasingly the recognition, exemplified in 2006 by Warren Buffett’s suggestion that “There’s class warfare, all right … but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning” (Source), is that class is alive and well and in prosecuting their demands for higher shares of real income, the elites have not only caused the crisis but are now, in recovery, reinstating the dynamics that will lead to the next crisis. The big changes in policy structures that have to be made to avoid another global crisis are not even remotely on the radar.

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Saturday Quiz – August 24, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Violence, suffering and denial

I wrote about the way the recent neo-liberal narrative in the UK, that constructs the unemployed as gaming the income support system and about how they need to be weeded out by harsher activity tests etc, is a theme Australians will be familiar with in this blog – The victims become the perpetrators – the neo-liberal smokescreen. The discussion touched on the way we abstract from the human suffering that accompanies mass unemployment and how the dominant paradigm seeks to construct the unemployed as an “Other” different to ourselves and accountable for their own state. Unemployment is not seen as a violent act deliberately perpetrated by us (through the agency we give our governments – the “mandate”) but rather as a chosen outcome, a rational end of an informed choice. Perhaps not one we would take ourselves but rational nonetheless and therefore of no further concern. I have been reading some relatively oblique philosophical literature lately centred on conceptions of ethics and the way historical temporality forces us to take a moral perspective whether we like it or not – that is, denial of past action is a particular moral perspective. It bears on some work I am doing in remote Indigenous communities in the Northern Territory at the moment as well as broader debates that exist in society. Here are some notes and thoughts that arise from this sort of reading and reflection.

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Saturday Quiz – August 17, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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The spurious distinction between the short- and long-run

There was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal (July 7, 2013) by US economist Alan S. Blinder – The Economy Needs More Spending Now . I am building a little database of what well-known economists said in 2008, 2009 and 2010 at the height of the crisis and in the early days of the fiscal and monetary interventions and what they are saying now. There is a lot of dodging and weaving I can tell you. Stories change, previous prognostications of certainty now appear highly qualified and nuanced and facts are denied. Alan Blinder was worried that the US Federal Reserve rapid building of reserves would have to be withdrawn quickly because otherwise banks would eventually lend them all out and inflation would accelerate. Of-course, banks don’t lend their reserves to customers and the predictions were not remotely accurate. In the article noted, Blinder continues to operate at what I am sure he thinks is the more reasonable end of mainstream macroeconomics. He is advocating more spending as a means of boosting higher economic growth. But when you appreciate the framework he is operating in, you realise that he is just part of the problem and part of the narrative that allows the IMF to talk about “growth friendly austerity” – the misnomer (or outright lie) of 2012-13.

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Australian labour market continues to weaken

Today’s release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) of the – Labour Force data – for July 2013 continues to signals a weakening labour market. Employment growth was negative with both full-time employment and part-time employment contracting. Full-time employment has contracted for the last three months. Over the last six months, there have been only 29.9 thousand (net) jobs created in the Australian economy comprising an overall loss of 18 thousand full-time jobs and 47.9 thousand part-time jobs. Unemployment fell by 5,700 but only because the labour force contracted with a 0.2 points fall in the participation rate. In other words, hidden unemployment rose as more people gave up looking for work in an environment where job opportunities are shrinking rapidly. This data signals an urgent need for fiscal stimulus to reverse the negative trend. Unfortunately, with both sides of politics locked into an austerity mindset the situation is likely to deteriorate further.

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UK economy grows and so does its budget deficit

So the UK grew by 0.6 per cent in the June-quarter 2013 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The conservatives are crowing as hard as they can that fiscal austerity has cleared the decks for a private sector recovery. We believe them of-course because the economy grew by 0.6 per cent. Right? Wrong. We don’t believe them. The fact is that the budget deficit rose in the last year and the annualised growth of the government and other services sector to growth has been positive in the last two quarters after a sharp contraction in the fourth quarter of 2012. On July 25, 2013, the British Office of National Statistics released its latest National Accounts data in the form of – Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate, Q2 2013. The data release comes on the back of another ONS release – Public Sector Finances, June 2013 – which showed that budget deficit and public borrowing rose over the 12 months to June 2013. So the direction in public net spending is up and that is the opposite direction to the intended fiscal austerity.

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Austerity fails – its in the numbers

The latest Eurostat public finance data for Europe on July 22, 2013 – Euro area government debt up to 92.2% of GDP demonstrates the failure of the Euro policy agenda on its own terms. It is clear the indecency of the policy elites is reflected in the way they use nomenclature. Massive rises in unemployment and poverty is called modernisation or labour market reform. The argument bifurcates at that point. How can you argue with someone who thinks like that? But we all know what a financial ratio is. They are without nuance. A public debt ratio is what it is. And when the leaders say they are doing everything they can to reduce them and the cost all this “modernisation” is a price worth paying to reduce the public debt ratios we can conclude that they are failing if the debt ratios continually rise as they impose harsher austerity (sorry, increase the degree of modernisation). That is what the hard numbers are shouting. And that means that someone in Europe should just blow the whistle and call time is up and get rid of the whole swathe of policy leaders.

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Case Study – British IMF loan 1976 – Part 7

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to complete the text during 2013 (to be ready in draft form for second semester teaching). Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

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Australian labour market – weak and deteriorating

Today’s release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) of the – Labour Force data – for June 2013 signals a deteriorating situation. Employment growth was about zero and full-time employment continued to contract. 84 per cent of jobs created in the last 6 months have been part-time. Unemployment rose by 23,700 and the unemployment rate rose 0.2 points to 5.7 per cent. This data signals an urgent need for fiscal stimulus to reverse the negative trend. Unfortunately, with both sides of politics locked into an austerity mindset the situation is likely to deteriorate further.

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