No coherent evidence of a rising US NAIRU

There was an interesting article in the January 2012 edition of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics – Labor force projections to 2020: a more slowly growing workforce. I was reading this the other day in conjunction with a new report from the US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia – On the Causes of Declines in the Labor Force Participation Rate, which was released on November 19, 2013. The latter paper is controversial because it suggests that the US labour market is much tighter than the actual unemployment rate would suggest. I would suggest otherwise and here is some preliminary analysis to back that view.

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Chained-CPI COLAs – another conservative smokescreen

The conservatives are always dreaming up new attacks on the most disadvantaged people in our societies. in the US, the front line of the war on the poor is the on-going attacks on the Social Security system. As I’ve noted in the past this entire debate is based upon the around the’s claim that the system can go broke. I dealt with that issue in these blogs – Social security insolvency 101 and The time has come to tell the American people the truth – among others, and I won’t repeat the points. They are clear – the US Social Security Trust Funds are just elaborate accounting smokescreens that ultimately mean nothing if one comprehends the financial capacity of the US government. They represent a case of a government creating a farcical structure to administer some program and then elevating the structure to a false level of importance that actually leads them to introduce policies which undermine the initial purpose of the program – and all without any basis. The determinants of future standards of living will be the availability of sufficient real goods and services of an acceptable quality. If they are available the US government will be able to purchase them with the stroke of a computer key. But because the conservatives have everyone thinking the funds will go broke, they can then force ridiculous time-wasting concepts into the public debate. One such attack is the proposal to use Chained-CPI measures as the Cost-of-Living-Adjustment (COLA) index in social security pensions.

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US government sector is keeping unemployment high

There was an article in the Atlantic yesterday (November 5, 2013) – How Washington Is Wrecking the Future, in 2 Charts – which reports in a related article in the UK Financial Times (November 3, 2013) – US public investment falls to lowest level since war. The essence of the articles is that the political landscape in the US has undermined the US President’s plans to spend more of public “infrastructure, science and education” which will undermine the future growth potential and prosperity of the US economy. A Bloomberg article (November 6, 2013) – Don’t Blame Congress for Cutbacks in Public Investment – criticised both analyses on the grounds that the cutbacks are relatively small and the culprit is state and local government in the US rather than the federal government. There is truth in both sides but neither really grasps the nettle and considers the cutbacks in government spending in the context of what is going on in the non-government sector. The cutbacks in public spending in the US over the last three years are unnecessary (financially) and the fiscal drag is keeping unemployment high and increasing the poverty rates.

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GOP reps – if they had another brain it would be lonely

I have been watching in my spare time (yes) the 2010 first season of the HBO series – The Newsroom – which could be about events in US this week, so persistent has been the moronic behaviour that nations’ polity. There is growing evidence that the US Republicans are now an extremist party with a substantially tenuous grip on reality. They clearly do not understand that an economic depression is likely to follow their refusal to prevent the US Treasury to continue spending according to the current laws that the US Congress passed and which, together with the tax code, determine the current deficit. They clearly do not understand how deficits arise and the function they serve. The US might hold themselves out to be the world leaders in a range of areas but this debate is revealing how stupid the government representatives have become.

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Careful before you leap!

The triumphalism of British Chancellor George Osborne in recent weeks, as a modicum of positive economic news seeps out of the – Old Dart – or should I say Britain (given the Old Dart strictly refers to England), is almost too much to bear. Moreover, stand ready for a phalanx of I-told-you-so-mainstream-economists coming out in force lecturing all and sundry about the benefits of fiscal austerity. These characters have been hanging tough for any sign of growth (they have been waiting some years) so they could all chime in that austerity has created the conditions for the growth. They choose to misunderstand any evidence that might cast doubt on that (spurious) correlation. The reality is very different. Austerity has undermined growth and retarded the economies where it has been imposed. All economies eventually resume growth. But the legacy of the policy failure will remain for years to come. All I can say to these triumphal ones is – Careful before you leap!

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Age of firm rather than size matters for job creation in the US

Today, among other things, I have been analysing the fantastic dataset produced by the US Census bureau – Business Dynamics Statistics – which allows us to understand in much more detail, the underlying drivers of employment growth in the US by age and size of firm across sectors. I have done a lot of work on this topic in the past and this sort of dataset is a gold mine. It allows us, for example, to examine the veracity of the oft-repeated claims by conservative politicians and lobbyists that small business is the employment engine of the modern economies and all sorts of concessions and deregulation (mostly directed at underlying job security, wages and conditions for workers) are required to allow small business to do its work. The simple conclusion of today’s data analysis is that the age of the firm is more important in understanding net job creation in the US than the size of the firm. Here are some tentative results that may or may not be of interest.

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There is a class warfare and the workers are not winning

The Politics of Envy – that old chestnut from the neo-liberals – is bandied around every time there is any insinuation that the capitalist system produces distributional outcomes that are not remotely proportional to the effort put into production. Whenever governments challenge the distributional outcomes – for example, propose increasing taxes on the higher income recipients (note I don’t use the word “earners”) there is hell to cry and the defense put up always appeals to the old tags – “socialist class warriors undermining incentive”, “envy”, etc. In the 1980s, when privatisation formed the first wave of the neo-liberal onslaught, we all apparently became “capitalists” or “shareholders”. We were told that it was dinosauric to think in terms of the old class categories – labour and capital. That was just so “yesterday” and we should just get over it and realise that we all had a stake in a system where reduced regulation and oversight would produce unimaginable wealth, even if the first manifestations of this new “incentivised” economy channelled increasing shares of real income to the highest percentiles in the distribution. No worries, “trickle-down” would spread the largesse. We know better now – and increasingly the recognition, exemplified in 2006 by Warren Buffett’s suggestion that “There’s class warfare, all right … but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning” (Source), is that class is alive and well and in prosecuting their demands for higher shares of real income, the elites have not only caused the crisis but are now, in recovery, reinstating the dynamics that will lead to the next crisis. The big changes in policy structures that have to be made to avoid another global crisis are not even remotely on the radar.

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The US government can buy as much of its own debt as it chooses

The hoopla over the US government voluntarily imposed debt ceiling is about to begin again with the US Treasury Secretary predicting that the government will run out of money in mid-October. He must have been listening to his President who told an audience at the State University of New York the other day, that in the face of rising demands for more government expenditure of education “At some point, the government’s going to run out of money” (Source). It is not the first time he has made that claim. Please read my blog – The US government has run short of money – for more discussion on this point. The debt ceiling is one of those ridiculous conventions that government introduce which from time to time provide some quaint, if not bizarre, theatre. But none of the conservatives will have the intestinal fortitude to really drive the US government artificially broke anyway. Anyway, all this was amusing me as I read the latest – US Federal Reserve Flow of Funds – data the other day. That data tells us that the US government can buy as much of its own debt as it chooses. Game over!

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Fiscal austerity damages growth – latest evidence

Republican Presidential (Bush) and Presidential hopeful (Romney) advisor and a principal deficit terrorist, Glenn Hubbard has once again re-cycled his obsession about the apparent necessity for the US to pass a balanced budget amendment which would require governments to eschew their fiscal responsibility and behave like automatums irrespective of the state of the cycle or the behaviour of the other sectors (external and private domestic). In his latest New York Times article (August 11, 2013) – Republicans and Democrats Both Miscalculated – (with T. Kane), we see a tired conservative hack, worn out from repeated failed attempts to push a balanced budget amendment into US law, wimpering about the need for another vote on this issue, but signifying a boring lameness that is being overtaken by the duration of time that has elapsed without the doomsday arriving and more recent evidence refuting the position outright.

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The spurious distinction between the short- and long-run

There was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal (July 7, 2013) by US economist Alan S. Blinder – The Economy Needs More Spending Now . I am building a little database of what well-known economists said in 2008, 2009 and 2010 at the height of the crisis and in the early days of the fiscal and monetary interventions and what they are saying now. There is a lot of dodging and weaving I can tell you. Stories change, previous prognostications of certainty now appear highly qualified and nuanced and facts are denied. Alan Blinder was worried that the US Federal Reserve rapid building of reserves would have to be withdrawn quickly because otherwise banks would eventually lend them all out and inflation would accelerate. Of-course, banks don’t lend their reserves to customers and the predictions were not remotely accurate. In the article noted, Blinder continues to operate at what I am sure he thinks is the more reasonable end of mainstream macroeconomics. He is advocating more spending as a means of boosting higher economic growth. But when you appreciate the framework he is operating in, you realise that he is just part of the problem and part of the narrative that allows the IMF to talk about “growth friendly austerity” – the misnomer (or outright lie) of 2012-13.

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