Japan’s new proposed national strategy has to overcome the domination of imported neoliberalism – Part 1

My colleagues and I at Kyoto University met the night before I flew back to Australia this year to discuss the on-going research collaboration, which will define part of my work over the next few years. I hope we can announce a major event in Kyoto or Tokyo in October or November 2025 to disseminate the first stage of the research results. The topic is broadly characterised by the working title – The Future of Japan – Challenges and Opportunities – and aims to articulate the contemporary challenges facing Japan – juxtaposing the mainstream framing (with associated economic narratives) with a framing based on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). It is a very broad project and we will have to work over the next few months to make it tractable. The Project aims to develop an alternative blueprint for economic development, one that is centred on advancing the needs and aspirations of the people and moving away from a compliance to the corporate needs. My contribution will draw on the current work I am doing on degrowth and delinking (breaking the yoke of Colonialism in poorer nations) and explore the notion that Japan can actually take ‘advantage’ of its shrinking population to demonstrate how key degrowth strategies can actually be implemented. We will also be running at odds to the Japanese government’s recently announced (October 2024) – JIIA platform – which is the government’s major national strategy statement. The fact that the current government thinking is a reflection of its neoliberal leanings, which have not served the nation well, stands in contrast to the ‘opportunities’ we identify once we adopt an MMT lens. Here is a bit about that thinking and, of course, over the next year (at least), I will periodically update readers with the progress of our work.

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Kyoto Report 2024 – 7

This Tuesday report will provide some insights into life for a westerner (me) who is working for an extended period at Kyoto University in Japan. This is my final report for 2024 as my working time at the university is completed for another year and we will resume these reports in 2025 when I return.

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Japanese government investing heavily in technologies to help its population age

The – Japanese National Institute of Population and Social Security Research – is the go-to place for understanding demographic trends in Japan. The latest revisions to the population estimates (as at 2023) show that the current population of 125.5 million will shrink to 96 odd million by 2060 and then 87 million a decade later. There is a rapid decline after that expected. The male population is shrinking faster than the female population. Much has been made in recent weeks of Japan’s slide down the GDP world ranking. First, China overtook it into 2nd place a few years ago and now Germany is moving into third place. India is projected to push Japan out of fourth place next year. Some have referred to this as “Peak Japan” with the population dynamics likely to push the nation further down the GDP table. There is a lot of anxiety among policy makers here about that ‘fate’. My perspective differs. In fact, I think that the challenge is not to solve the population decline but rather to work out ways to live well with a smaller population, and demonstrate to the world how a planned degrowth strategy can be achieved with minimal disruption to material security.

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The ‘MMT is dead’ crowd are silent now the yen is appreciating

It’s Wednesday and I am mostly thinking about Japan today. In just over a week’s time, I will once again head to Japan to work at Kyoto University. I will be there for several weeks and will provide regular reports as I have in previous years of what is happening there. The LDP leadership struggle is certainly proving to be interesting and there is now a view emerging that the hoped for break out from the deflationary period has not happened and further fiscal expansion is necessary. This is at a time when the yen is appreciating and the authorities are worried it is making the external sector noncompetitive. That is, light years away from the predictions made by the ‘MMT is dead’ crowd when they saw the depreciating yen during 2022 and beyond. It just goes to show that trying to interpret the world from the ‘sound finance’ lens will generally lead to erroneous conclusions.

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