Friday lay day – Latvia, the miracle of 10 per cent population shrinkage

Its my Friday lay day blog. I try to devote the major part of Fridays to writing other things (some book projects I am working on and some journal articles and other things). That is the logic of the lay day. I cut the time I devote to the blog in half (down to around 1 hour) in recognition of that logic. Today, I was examining the recent population data from Latvia to see what the latest trends were. Most countries would not judge success by the number of its population that leaves, especially when the departing souls are among the young and talented. But the so-called Latvian ‘miracle’ does just that. When the Latvian government aided and abetted by the IMF and the EU stooges imposed the harshest austerity of all on the people and real GDP growth followed, the neo-liberals were beside themselves with joy. Austerity works they screamed. Well not for the 10 per cent of the population who left. And now, the peak of the ‘miracle’ appears to be over as growth slows and the residual of a privatised, socially damaged society remains. I wouldn’t be holding out this little nation as a success story. More like a disaster if the reality is to be correctly appraised.

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Friday lay day – the hopelessness of the Greek situation

Its my Friday lay day blog. Every day now, the Euro news is dominated with the machinations regarding Greece. As it should be I suppose, given the scale of the tragedy in place. It might have escaped the attention of some but Eurostat released its latest labour force report yesterday (April 30, 2015) – Euro area unemployment rate at 11.3% – which told us that despite all this talk of a Eurozone recovery, the unemployment remains at 11.3 per cent in March 2015 (no change on February 2015) and only 0.4 per cent lower than a year ago (March 2014). The Greek unemployment rate remains at 25.7 per cent (as at January 2015) and more than 50 per cent of 15-24 year olds are unemployed. But the worst news I saw this week related to the results of a survey of Greek people about the current situation. It tells me that things are very desperate indeed.

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Finland – more austerity is not the answer

Finland has been one of the Eurozone nations taking a hardline on Greek austerity and have consistently refused to support on-going bailouts of Greece. At the weekend, Finland went to the polls and tossed out the incumbent government and put in its place a centrist party that stood on a platform of a wage freeze and further spending cuts, allegedly to restore Finland’s competitive position. If that prospect wasn’t bad enough, the Centre Party will have to enter a coalition with the party that came second in the polls – the Finns Party, which is a ragbag anti-immigration group that wants Greece kicked out of the Eurozone. It is possible that Finland’s Parliament will not support any further European Union bailouts for Greece. Apparently Finn’s are buying the line that further and intensified austerity is necessary because of rising labour costs have undermined Finland’s capacity to compete in international markets as the demise of Nokia, so the narrative goes, illustrates. The last thing that Finland needs right now is more austerity.

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Latest military expenditure data reveals the hypocrisy of austerity

Yesterday, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released their latest data for – World Military Expenditure 1988-2014. In their – Press Release – we learn that total World military spending has fallen in the last three consecutive years although it “levelled off” in 2014. While the global trends are interesting (the shifting patterns between the big geo-blocks), I was interested in what was happening in the Eurozone in the era of austerity. I was also interesting in juxtaposing the military expenditure and social expenditure dynamics. What you learn is that Greece maintains its position as one of the largest relative spending nations on military items, spending nearly twice the proportion of its GDP compared to Germany and the Netherlands, two nations that lead the charge on imposing austerity. Further, the nations that are pushing the hardest for more austerity are those that benefit the most from Greek military expenditure. The hypocrisy is amazing.

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Friday lay day – The Troika is the enemy and its either exit or capitulation

Its the Friday lay day blog. Lay day means rest, sometimes. The Greek government paid €450 million back to the IMF bloodsuckers yesterday which apparently calmed markets (Source). How can a so-called bankrupt country afford to pay that sort of cash? Well it can by causing more unemployment and poverty. The Government is trying to appease the Troika (IMF, ECB and the European Union) so that they will given them more cash in the coming weeks. Appeasement is an appropriate word here. Just as in the historical context, it means going along with something evil that will ultimately backfire and cause more grief. But then according to the US economist James Galbraith, in his latest apology (April 7, 2015), Syriza is – The Real Thing: An Anti-austerity European Government. Funny about that. Unless it is flying below all perception, Syriza seems trapped by an anti-democratic force that is intent on squeezing any notion of abandoning austerity from its agenda. And, try to square Galbraith’s claims against the insights provided by Alain Badiou and Stathis Kouvelakis in this interchange (April 3, 2015) – Dangerous Days Ahead.

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Wage rises are required – real wages must grow in line with productivity

There was an interesting article in the UK Guardian last weekend (March 29, 2015) – Why falling inflation is a false pretext for keeping wages low – which examined wage trends in the UK and the validity of the argument that “Falling inflation now provides employers with a pretext for keeping wage settlements low”. Employer groups never support wage increases and are continually trying to suppress real wages growth below productivity growth so that they can enjoy a greater share of national income. As part of my research to discover the nature of the ideological shift accompanying the emergence of Monetarism as the dominant policy paradigm I have been examining wage distributions. This is part of a book I will complete next year (fingers crossed) on the demise of the political left. In this blog we examine the shifting relationship between labour productivity growth and real wages growth since 1960. The results are illuminating and open up a broad research front about which I will write more as time passes.

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ECB should start funding government infrastructure and cash handouts

I was a signatory to a letter published in the Financial Times on Thursday (March 26, 2015) – Better ways to boost eurozone economy and employment – which called for a major fiscal stimulus from the European Central Bank (given it is the only body in the Eurozone that can introduce such a stimulus). The fiscal stimulus would take the form of a cash injection using the ECB’s currency monopoly powers. A co-signatory was Robert Skidelsky, Emeritus Professor, Warwick University, renowned Keynesian historian and Keynes’ biographer. Amazingly, Skidelsky wrote an article in the UK Guardian two days before the FT Letter was published (March 24, 2015) – Fiscal virtue and fiscal vice – macroeconomics at a crossroads – which would appear to contradict the policy proposal we advocated in the FT Letter. The Guardian article is surrender-monkey territory and I disagree with most of it. It puts the progressive case on the back foot. What the hell is going on?

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European Youth Guarantee audit exposes its (austerity) flaws

On Tuesday (March 24, 2015), the European Court of Auditors, which is the EU’s independent external auditor and aims to improve “EU financial management”, released a major report – EU Youth Guarantee: first steps taken but implementation risks ahead (3 mb). The Report reflects on the experience of the program which was introduced in April 2013. When the European Commission proposed the initiative I wrote that it was underfunded, poorly focused (on supply rather than demand – that is, job creation) and would fail within an overwhelming austerity environment. The Audit Report is more diplomatic as you would expect but comes up with findings that are not inconsistent with my initial assessment in 2012.

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Syriza must stay left of the line – more is at stake than Greece

There were regional elections in the autonomous community of Andalusia (Spain) over the weekend which saw the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) hold onto power. The results showed that the left-wing political party – Podemos – which received nearly 8 per cent of the Spanish vote (5 seats) at the European Parliament elections in May 2014, was third in the Anadulusian election, gaining 15 of the 109 seats. The parallels with Syriza in Greece are now routinely being made. I am forming the view, however, that unless things change rather dramatically in Greece, Syriza may actually end up only undermining progressive agendas in Europe as they self-destruct under the iron fist of the Troika (I do not use the terms “the institutions” or the “Brussels Group”). This is of great interest to me at present because I am sketching out a 2016 book project at present with a co-author, which broadly focuses on the demise of the left and social democratic movements in the World, although we might pare the scope down with more discussion to concentrate on Europe. Of particular interest is the morbid inferiority of the French left relative to the Germans in the Post World War II period and the way in which American Monetarism has infiltrated and built on that inferiority. Much of the design of the monetary union can be understood through that sort of lens. So a broad canvas right now but that is always the case. Of immediate interest, though, is the possibility that Syriza will set progressive causes back rather than become the spearhead for a sweeping change in Europe and the end of this destructive era of neo-liberalism.

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Eurozone unemployment – little to do with international competitiveness

The so-called ‘Informal European Council’ released a document on February 12, 2015 – Preparing for Next Steps on Better Economic Governance in the Euro Area: Analytical Note – which has been used as a background paper to batter the Greeks into submission in the latest round of the Eurozone crisis. It was published under the authorshop of Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the European Commission) with “close cooperation” with Donald Tusk (President of the European Council), Jeroen Dijsselbloem (President of the Eurogroup of Finance Ministers) and Mario Draghi (ECB boss). All that is missing is the Madame from the IMF to complete the Troika. This is a very dishonest document, deliberately framed to advance the austerity agenda and damage the living standards of some of the nations within the monetary union. It is hard how any serious economist would put their name to this sort of analysis.

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