Today (January 18, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for December 2023, which tells us where things were at by year’s end. This looks likes the first real signs of a slowdown although the rather large swing in participation suggests there is some sampling variability and the incoming rotation group for December 2023 did have a lower participation rate than the outgoing group. Employment growth has been unusually strong in the previous few months but has now turned negative. Without the very sharp fall in participation, the official unemployment rate would have been 4.5 per cent rather than the official recorded rate of 3.9 per cent – a difference of 98.3 thousand workers. While we will see whether the data will be revised next month, a substantial number of workers who may have been or become unemployed have left the labour force in December as the demand-side weakened. There remains 10.4 per cent of the available and willing working age population who are being wasted in one way or another – either unemployed or underemployed. Australia is not near full employment despite the claims by the mainstream commentators and it is hard to characterise this as a ‘tight’ labour market.

Today (December 14, 2023), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for November 2023. Employment growth remains strong with a surprise uptick in full-time employment. With participation rising by 0.2 points, the increase in the labour force outstripped the strong employment change, which meant that the unemployment rose by 0.1 points. If the participation rate had not have changed, then the official unemployment rate would be 3.5 per cent rather than the official rate published of 3.9 per cent. Underemployment also rose – there are now 10.4 per cent of the available and willing working age population who are being wasted in one way or another – either unemployed or underemployed. Australia is not near full employment despite the claims by the mainstream commentators and it is hard to characterise this as a ‘tight’ labour market.

Today (November 16, 2023), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for October 2023. Employment rose by 55 thousand and unemployment rose by 27,900 on the back of a 0.2 points rise in participation – usually a sign of a healthy situation. But the special monthly factors (referendum and elections) which impacted positively on employment growth make it hard to assess where the labour market is at. I am guessing that November’s employment growth will be much lower and participation will fall again. In October, noting the special factors, employment growth was not strong enough in September to absorb the rise in the labour force as participation rose by 0.2 points. If the participation rate had not have changed, then the official unemployment rate would be 3.4 per cent rather than the official rate published of 3.7 per cent. There are now 10 per cent of the available and willing working age population who are being wasted in one way or another – either unemployed or underemployed. Australia is not near full employment despite the claims by the mainstream commentators.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for September 2023 today (October 19, 2023). My overall assessment is that the the labour market is now looking subdued although relatively stable. The decline in full-time employment is a worry. Almost all the net change in employment over the last six months has been part-time. In September, employment growth was not strong enough to absorb the underlying population growth. The only reason unemployment fell in the context of the weak employment growth was because the fall in the participation rate meant more workers left the labour force. There are now 9.9 per cent of the available and willing working age population who are being wasted in one way or another – either unemployed or underemployed. The fact that the broad underutlisation rate fell is not a cause for celebration because it was driven by the decline in participation, which just means hidden unemployment rose. Australia is not near full employment despite the claims by the mainstream commentators.