Commentary and analysis of labour force data releases.

Australian labour market – further deterioration and there is worse to come

The labour market contraction that I have been signalling for the last three months continued in September. The rising unemployment rate and the declining employment levels are all down to the work of the RBA and its ridiculous interest rate increases. Given the lag in interest rates impacting on the real economy, the current labour market results are probably reflecting two rate hikes ago and since then the RBA has hiked two further times pursuing their zealous ideological agenda. The situation will thus get worse as these rate hikes finally start impacting. Meanwhile, the inflation rate is being driven by factors that rising unemployment will not directly address. It really demonstrates the destructive New Keynesian logic, which is one of the worst aspects of the neoliberal era. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (October 15, 2026) – Labour Force, Australia – for September 2026 – which showed that the labour market deteriorated further in September. The results are terrible – a weakening demand-side and the declining participation masking the damage to unemployment. Had the labour force not shrunk the unemployment rate would have risen to 5 per cent rather than the official rise of 0.1 point to 4.7 per cent. Thus, both hidden unemployment and official unemployment rose in September. The broad labour underutilisation rate (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose 0.1 point to 11.0 per cent, which means that 11 per cent of the available and willing workforce is not working in one way or another and that doesn’t include the 55 thousand extra workers who left the labour force. The reality makes a farce of the RBA’s claims that the labour market is tight. The RBA is sabotaging the economy for no acceptable reason.

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Japan – Tracing the decline in construction employment since 1980

In this blog post, I am continuing my work on examining the constraints in the Japanese infrastructure sector that would reduce the effectiveness of the fiscal expansion that the current government is proposing as a strategy to kickstart the economy and lift productivity. One approach is to decompose employment changes in the sector into the demand-side and supply-side components, which helps us assess whether there is a shortage of spending or a shortage of workers. The data shows two unambiguous patterns. First, construction employment is driven strongly by government spending on infrastructure. When that wanes, activity plummets. Second, in recent years, the overwhelming reason employment in the sector is declining is due to a contraction of labour supply. Taken together, while it is a relatively straightforward path to stimulate the industry – increase public investment spending, the supply constraints make that approach difficult to implement. This will bear on the effectiveness and outcomes of the current fiscal expansion proposed by the Takaichi government in Japan.

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RBA Monetary Policy Board member refutes on-going claims from the RBA governor about unemployment

On September 22, 2026, a member of the Monetary Policy Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) gave a speech – A Wage-price Spiral: What are the Chances? – at Melbourne University. The tenor of his presentation was that despite the constant recent claims about wages pressures emanating from a labour market that is too tight and driving the current inflationary episode, there was no evidence to support the claims. That is a position that I have been arguing for over the last several years in countering the mainstream narratives. But, interestingly, and shockingly, on the same day, the RBA governor gave a speech to the right-leaning Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) – Fireside Chat at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) – where she claimed that unemployment had to rise towards 5 per cent (from its current level of 4.5 per cent) because the labour market was too tight and driving business costs and inflation. The extraordinary juxtaposition of these views is one thing. But the governor’s continual claims that the current inflationary pressures are sourced from the labour market defies the evidence and clearly is intended to give her cover for further interest rate rises.

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Australian labour market – full-time jobs decline as unemployment continues to rise

The labour market contraction that I have been signalling for the last two months continued in August. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (September 24, 2026) – Labour Force, Australia – for August 2026 – which showed that the labour market deteriorated further in August, in that full-time employment growth was negative and unemployment rose. I suspect, however, that the September release will show some revisions to the data given the changes that the ABS are making to its survey collection model (see below). Overall, there are now 10.8 per cent of available labour not being used (either unemployed or underemployed), which makes a farce of the RBA’s claims that the labour market is tight. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.

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Australian labour market – unemployment continues to rise as a deliberate policy choice

Last month, I noted that the sharp shift towards part-time work was the first signal that a labour market contraction was coming. The latest data released today confirms that the contraction is now eating into overall employment and pushing the unemployment rate up. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (August 20, 2026) – Labour Force, Australia – for July 2026 – which showed that the labour market deteriorated in July. Employment growth was negative although the economy added full-time jobs, which offsets some of the severity of the decline. Overall working hours contracted sharply. Official unemployment increased but the increase would have been larger had the participation rate not decelined by 0.2 points. Had the participation rate not declined in July, the official unemployment rate would be around 4.7 per cent rather than the published rate of 4.5 per cent. There are now 10.8 per cent of available labour not being used (either unemployed or underemployed), which makes a farce of the RBA’s claims that the labour market is tight. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.

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Another neoliberal institution shown to be unfit for purpose while lining the pockets of private equity and millionaires

Over the last several years, I have been indicating that I think we are in the endgame for neoliberalism as a dominant ideology. On many fronts, the signs are that its institutional structure has failed and the promises that justified that structure have not materialised. I know there is a difference between the promises to sell the idea (that we would all be better off) and the true motivation (to enrich the already wealthy and consolidate their hegemony). But short of military dictatorship where the top-end-of-town control the military, major economic changes are conditioned by the legislative and regulative structure created by government. That means that the voters have to be convinced that change is worthwhile. Neoliberalism thrived because the elites reconfigured the state to serve their interests after the social democratic era saw the state play a mediation role in the class conflict. That reconfiguration was driven by an intense public relations campaign to manipulate the public perception. The working class was divided into segments and segments were turned on other segments (the ‘dole bludgers’, the migrants, trans people, etc) as part of the strategy. The strategy enriched the architects beyond belief but for the rest of us the outcomes have proven dysfunctional to say the least. Now the endgame is upon us as the evidence continues to stack up that neoliberalism was an elaborate con to enrich the already rich and powerful. A report from Australia last week added to the evidence. It shows that one of the defining manifestations of neoliberalism in Australia – the privatised job services system has failed badly and only serves to fills “the pockets of private equity and millionaires, while leaving jobseekers without work”. Another brick in the wall falls.

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Australian labour market – shifts towards part-time work perhaps the first signal that a contraction is coming

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (July 23, 2026) – Labour Force, Australia – for June 2026 – which provided mixed signals about the state of the labour market. While employment growth was positive, it was biased to part-time work, which is perhaps signalling a weakening as the first adjustment typically made by employers is to reduce hours of work before they cut jobs overall. However, on the other side, participation grew, which means more workers are either working or seeking work. However, the bias towards part-time work was manifest in the rising underemployment rate. There are now 10.9 per cent of available labour not being used (either unemployed or underemployed), which makes a farce of the RBA’s claims that the labour market is tight. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.

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What the new British government needs to do to get the unions on side with climate action

The recent extreme weather in the northern hemisphere, the twin monster tropical storms in Japan, the impending shutdown of the – Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) – among other happenings is telling us that things are changing for the worse. Clearly long-term weather trends are open to interpretation because the available data is sketchy the further one goes back. And, narratives from historians tell us that there have been rather extreme weather events in the past, which have led to many lost lives. The National Museum of Australia has an interesting information page – Heatwaves – which helps us understand the historical experience in Australia. There are other credible sites that deal with global events. However, the serial nature of the recent weather trends and the interlinked changes in the oceanic conditions, the cryosphere, rain and storms, and temperature allows us to counter the arguments that are presented to refute climate change science, which rely on claims that the current period is just part of a recurring cycle. These events are also relevant to the current political machinations in the UK, where Starmer is going (yay!) and the new probably PM is under fire from both business and unions for wanting to do something about climate change. In this post, I discuss what can be done.

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Apparently the RBA has the interests of the unemployed it is putting out of work at heart. Not!

Economics and business correspondents regularly serve as apologists for poor policy. Their motivation is to file a story and often they take the easy way out by paraphrasing press releases put out by some conservative think tank, or economist, or corporation without any critical scrutiny being applied and then masquerade their article as opinion. The other approach is to rehearse some elementary mainstream macroeconomic textbook and claim the ‘theory’ can be applied to justify decisions taken by the fiscal and/or monetary authorities. Last week (June 24, 2026), the Deputy Governor of the RBA gave a speech to the Economic Society of Australia in Melbourne – “The Straight Line Belongs to Man, the Curved Line Belongs to God” – which tried to justify the unjustifiable rate hikes in the current inflationary episode. The reporting of that speech was lame to say the least. Over the weekend (June 26, 2026), there was one such article published in the Melbourne Age – Why the RBA has been so chill about putting jobs on the line – that just repeats the RBA line and fails to see the actual issue.

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Australian labour market – slight improvement after dismal results in April

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (June 25, 2026) – Labour Force, Australia – for May 2026 – which showed that the labour market improved slightly in May after a poor showing in the April figures. However, there are now 10.2 per cent of available labour not being used (either unemployed or underemployment), which makes a farce of the RBA’s claims that the labour market is tight. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.

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