The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (June 19, 2025) – Labour Force, Australia – for May 2025, which revealed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 per cent for the second consecutive month. There was a small decrease in overall employment (-2,500) which was offset by a 0.1 point decline in the participation rate, The net effect was a small decline in official unemployment (-2,600) and a stable unemployment rate. Whether the fall in employment and participation is a signal of a significant slowdown in the coming months is unclear at this stage. Monthly data fluctuates up and down. There was a 1.3 per cent rise in monthly hours worked and significant growth in full-time employment which blurs an easy interpretation of the other changes. Underemployment also fell 0.1 point growth. The broad labour underutilisation rate (sum of unemployment and underemployment) fell to 10 per cent (down 0.1 point) on the back of the declining underemployment. It remains a fact that with 10 per cent of available labour not being used it is ludicrous to talk about Australia being close to full employment. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.

Last month’s labour force data for Australia revealed a sluggish labour market, seemingly on the cusp of contraction as other indicators were pointing in that direction. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (May 15, 2025) – Labour Force, Australia – for April 2025, which revealed that employment growth was strong enough to absorb a 0.3 point rise in participation without increasing the unemployment rate. The broad labour underutilisation rate (sum of unemployment and underemployment) did, however, rise 0.2 points to 10.1 per cent on the back of a rise in underemployment. The fact that 10.1 per cent of available labour are not being used indicates that folly of those who claim Australia is close to full employment. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (April 17, 2025) – Labour Force, Australia – for March 2025. It revealed that the unemployment rate rose 0.1 point (on rounding) to 4.1 per cent, employment rose by 32,200 (0.2 per cent), the underemployment rate was unchanged at 5.9 per cent, and the participation rate rose 0.1 point (on rounding). Monthly hours worked fell by 6 million (-0.3 per cent). The broad labour underutilisation rate (sum of unemployment and underemployment) was 9.9 per cent, which puts the claims that this is a tight labour market into perspective. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.

Today (March 20, 2025), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for February 2025. The contraction in overall employment growth, the participation rate, and the employment-population ratio are all signs of a deteriorating situation. Unemployment always lags behind the employment dynamics because of the participation rate movements, which means that the situation is worse than the unemployment rate signals. The official unemployment rate was a steady 4.1 per cent but if we adjust for the changing participation then the underlying rate is about 4.7 per cent. That means that the 97.5 thousand LESS workers in the labour force due to the falling participation have entered the ranks of the hidden unemployed. We should also not disregard the fact that there is still 9.9 per cent of the working age population (around 1.5 million people) who are available and willing but cannot find enough work – either unemployed or underemployed and that proportion is increasing. Australia is not near full employment despite the claims by the mainstream commentators and it is hard to characterise this as a ‘tight’ labour market.

Today (February 20, 2025), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for January 2025. Employment growth was relatively strong and concentrated on full-time employment, which is a good sign. It was, however, unable to keep pace with the underlying population growth and the rising participation rate and as a result the unemployment rate rose by a point. Had the participation rate not risen by 0.2 points, the unemployment rate would have been 3.9 per cent rather than the official rate of 4.1 per cent. We should not disregard the fact that there is still 10.1 per cent of the working age population (over 1.5 million people) who are available and willing but cannot find enough work – either unemployed or underemployed and that proportion is increasing. Australia is not near full employment despite the claims by the mainstream commentators and it is hard to characterise this as a ‘tight’ labour market.

Today (January 16, 2025), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for December 2024. Employment growth was relatively strong but concentrated on part-time employment, which suggests the quality of employment fell. Employment growth was also unable to keep pace with the underlying population growth and the rising participation rate and as a result the unemployment rate rose by a point. We should not disregard the fact that there is still close to 10 per cent of the working age population (over 1.5 million people) who are available and willing but cannot find enough work – either unemployed or underemployed and that proportion is increasing. Australia is not near full employment despite the claims by the mainstream commentators and it is hard to characterise this as a ‘tight’ labour market.

Last Thursday (November 12, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for November 2024. I was unable to get the data in time due to where I was when it was released so I held over my. usual report until today. The latest data release shows that employment rose in net terms by 35,600 (+0.2 per cent) reversing the weakness that was recorded in October. With the participation rate falling by 0.1 points, the combination of growing employment and shrinking labour force saw unemployment decline by 27,000 and the rate fall by 0.2 points to 3.9 per cent. There was zero growth in monthly hours worked, which was surprising given the strength in full-time employment growth and the declining part-time employment. The improved overall employment growth in November after a fairly weak period in October was, in part, explained by the ABS “In November we saw a higher than usual number of people moving into employment who were unemployed and waiting to start work in October. This contributed to the rise in employment and fall in unemployment.” Underemployment fell by 0.1 point and the overall labour underutilisation rate (the sum of unemployed and underemployed) fell to 10 per cent overall. The mainstream commentators try to equate that level of wastage to a state of full employment but it just makes a mockery of the concept.

Today (November 14, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for October 2024, which shows that employment growth was very weak and may signal that the labour market is finally slowing in line with overall spending and GDP growth. Employment growth failed to keep pace with the underlying population growth and the only reason the unemployment rate remained ‘stable’ was because participation fell, in line with the weaker jobs outlook. We should not disregard the fact that there is now 10.4 per cent of the working age population (over 1.6 million people) who are available and willing but cannot find enough work – either unemployed or underemployed and that proportion is increasing. Australia is not near full employment despite the claims by the mainstream commentators and it is hard to characterise this as a ‘tight’ labour market.