Long-term unemployment – stats and myths

Today I have been looking at long-term unemployment as part of a larger project. It is on the rise again and always lags behind the overall unemployment movements given it takes time for people to work their way through the duration categories until they get to 52 weeks. The longer the recession the higher average duration of unemployment becomes and the larger the pool of long-term unemployed. However, the way we feel about long-term unemployment is conditioned heavily by how it is defined. Moreover, we also have built up an elaborate set of myths about the way long-term unemployment behaves and consider it needs to be dealt with via training rather than job creation – the so-called irreversibility hypothesis. This blog looks at these issues.

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The revolving door – how social policy is co-opted

I mentioned yesterday that I would reflect on the ACTU Jobs Summit, which was held in Sydney on Monday. I was one of the invited speakers. You can download notes of my talk HERE. The revolving door idea has been on my mind a lot over the last decade or even earlier. The revolving door idea – that open door between key institutions such as unions, welfare agencies and the like and government – relates to how political struggle manifests. The revolving door is a process which increasingly sees organisations and institutions that started out to defend the rights of the poor and the workers become co-opted into the discourse of the day to the detriment of their own charters. That is what this blog is about.

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The OECD is at it again!

Today, the right-wing media that we are blessed with have wheeled out another one of their favourite little hobby-horses which they repeatedly use to promote the deregulation of the wages system. They are attacking the Government’s roll-back of Work Choices, which is aimed at restoring appropriate wages and conditions for non-standard work. In this specific case, two opinion columnists from the two major publishing houses are claiming that the Government is undermining the future employment prospects of our youth. Well if they had anything new to add by way of evidence it would be good for debate. As it is they both merely recite the dogma from the latest OECD report Jobs for Youth: Australia – and I don’t need to remind readers that that organisation has form. Its reputation in the area of labour market research is somewhat dubious after a series of recants over the last few years when confronted with solid evidence to the contrary. Anyway, here we go again.

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When is a job guarantee a Job Guarantee?

In the current edition of the German weekly Magazine Der Spiegel (“The Mirror”) there is an article about a “new idea to keep unemployment down” entitled Germany Mulls ‘Parking’ Unwanted Labor in New State-Funded Firms. The thrust of the proposal is that Germany is now examining a proposal to set up government-funded “transfer companies” for workers who lose their jobs as a means of keeping unemployment in check. A reader wrote to me saying that it sounds a bit like the Job Guarantee that I have been advocating for years! Closer examination suggests that while the Germans are starting to come to terms with how bad their economic situation is, they are still a long way off understanding how to get out of it. In that respect, they share the ignorance with most governments. However, being a Euro zone member, the German government has voluntarily lumbered itself with even more constraints that will make it harder to insulate its people from the ravages of the recession.

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Minimum wages 101

The issue of minimum wage adjustments always invokes a lot of debate and invokes the usual (boring) reactions from employer groups and conservative economists. Their narrative is always the same: you cannot have a minimum wage rise because it will cause unemployment among the low-skill ranks of the workforce. If you believed their logic, then there never would be a minimum wage rise. The reality is that there is no evidence available to support these notions and lots of evidence to refute it. The new problem is that the current Federal government is now aligning with the conservatives and using the same defective logic to oppose any reasonable rise in the minimum wage. Its that time again. Time to debrief.

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A successful degrowth strategy will require a massive redistribution of income and wealth towards the poorest

It is true that all big cities have areas of poverty that is visible from the streets. But I am always a bit shocked when I travel to London, where I am currently working, because the inequality is very obvious. As I work more on the degrowth, decolonisation project that I am currently involved in, one thing becomes paramount. An overwhelming proportion of the total fossil fuel energy usage is due to the consumption of the wealthiest households. And to dramatically reduce our ecological footprint will require dramatically reducing the capacity of the top end of the income and wealth distributions to consume energy. However, all the trends are moving against that requirement. Here are some notes on that topic.

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Video – Japan at a Crossroads: Fiscal Policy, China, and the Growth

I have limited time today to write a blog post and last night I was sent a new video that I recently recorded with my research colleague at Kyoto University, Professor Fujii where we talk for some hours on the topic – Japan at a Crossroads: Fiscal Policy, China, and the Growth. It was a conversation we had via Zoom that was recorded on Friday, December 5, 2025. We reflect on recent developments in Japan and its relationship with other major countries (US, China, etc) and consider the policy challenges facing the new Takaichi Cabinet. It is a very long session. The transcript was generated by YouTube AI I believe and then edited and is not perfect. A lot of unnecessary aspects are edited out and the latter part of the transcript is really just an AI summary. But I think the record is acceptable. At times, the discussion changed from English to Japanese, where there was some ambiguity in terminology etc, and those segments have been cut from the transcript. I put in timestamps during the transcript to help you zoom into topics of interest. I hope you find something useful in our long discussion.

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The struggles to teach political economy and the aftermath – we all lost

I started my undergraduate studies in economics in the late 1970s after starting out as an Arts student in the early 1970s studying philosophy, politics, history, anthropology and statistics. The Vietnam War movement and other things interrupted my first years of studies and it wasn’t until the Federal government introduced the National Employment and Training (NEAT) scheme in 1974 that I was able to get some government support to resume my studies, this time as an economics student combining statistics, politics, law and economics. The major student rebellions of the late 1960s around the world had ended and the Monetarists had seized control of the academy, which led to major shifts in the way economics was taught. The world is much poorer as a result of these changes and the end-game problems of neoliberalism that we are all struggling with now – housing crises, welfare retrenchments, aftermath of privatisation and outsourcing, casualised labour markets offering poorly paid jobs with precarious outlooks, rising income and wealth inequality, and the climate crisis to name just a few of the individual crises that are now converging into the poly crisis we are enduring now – are directly related to the shifts in the economics profession in the 1970s. I was a student then young academic through this early period and when I read an article in the Australian Financial Review this morning (September 1, 2025) – Why my dad fought against ‘Albonomics’ at Sydney University (usually behind a paywall) – I could hardly believe what I was reading.

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Basing a childcare system on how much private profit it generates is a recipe for certain disaster

We knew in the 1980s, when neoliberal-influenced governments started selling off public trading enterprise for not much that the strategy would not deliver on its promises. At least some of us knew and wrote about it then. I was part of a team that analysed the disasters that would follow the sell off of the Commonwealth Bank and Qantas. Qantas, by the way, has gone through a sequence of high profile scandals, including selling tickets for flights it had already cancelled, illegally sacking workers during COVID, and other demonstrations of incompetent and capricious management. Just this week, it was fined $A90 million for the illegal sacking of the baggage handlers. The latest demonstration of how privatisation has failed is the revelation that the child care industry in Australia has become a honey pot for paedophiles and sociopaths as for-profit child care centres pursue profit at the expense of caring for the children in their centres. The solutions are always straightforward but rejected by governments – bring these activities back into the not-for-profit state sector. Meanwhile, the future of tens of thousands of children are being compromised by profiteering by corporations as governments wax lyrical about how much they care for the kids but do very little to stop the abuse.

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Productivity growth is not the only source of increases in material well-being for the majority

One of the issues that emerges when one is studying undergraduate macroeconomics is that there is a curious disregard for the role that income and wealth distribution play in determining the aggregate outcomes, that are at the centre of the study. Most students in my cohort didn’t think about that and the curriculum certainly didn’t encourage such digressions. For me, a student of Marx basically, I was extremely interested in the topic and read a lot outside the standard curriculum, which took me into the work of Sidney Weintraub and others, for example, who demonstrated how aggregate spending was not just influenced by income but also how that income was distributed. I have been thinking about this issue in relation to the way the Australian debate at present is being dominated by the productivity question and the imperative for a degrowth strategy to emerge. This thinking is also in relation to the Federal government’s – Economic Reform Roundtable – which they are running in Canberra this week, led by the Treasurer. The overarching theme is ‘Making our economy more productive’ so we can grow faster. Exactly the opposite of a discussion about degrowth.

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Major shifts in sentiment within Japan as they try to escape the cost-cutting excess profits mindset

This week (July 29, 2025), the Cabinet Office in Tokyo released the Economic and Fiscal Report – 年次経済財政報告 – which is a comprehensive statement of where the Economic and Fiscal Policy Ministry thinks the Japanese economy is going and the challenges it faces. It is a long and very thorough document. But like many official documents that the Japanese government publishes, it reads quite unlike what other governments that are sort of in IMF-spin mode pump out. The fundamental takeaway from reading the Report is that the Japanese government is still uncertain about whether the country has evolved out of its deflationary mindset and become a ‘growth-oriented’ nation driven by real wages growth. There is certainly criticism (implied in the Japanese fashion) for corporations sitting on large cash assets who are underinvesting in local productive capital. But the overwhelming hope of the government is that the nascent wage increases that have been offered mostly by the large major corporations continue and spread throughout the economy into the dominant small and medium enterprises. Most governments are still in the corporate cost-cutting mindset – thinking that is somehow how productivity and improved material well-being will occur. So their foci is on deregulation and attacking trade unions and that sort of ‘supply side’ nonsense. The Japanese government is firmly banking on a consumer-led, domestic economy growth strategy fostered by extensive wage rises outstripping the growth in prices.

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A Just Transition framework is required to head off the climate denying Right

The recent federal election in Australia saw the conservative opposition coalition lose further seats in parliament building on their disastrous 2022 result. The coalition is made up of conservative urban types (the so-called Liberal Party) and the National party, which represents the rural lobby. The Nationals are essentially climate-change denialists and because the Liberals require them to have any hope to govern, the smaller rural lobby can dominate policy choices. To convince the Nationals to adopt a net-zero by 2050 stance, the Liberals had to agree to propose a shift to Nuclear power, which was neither realistic in a logistical sense or economic in a cost sense. The electorate clearly rejected that option at the recent election. Now the Liberals, who are facing an existential crisis after the devastating loss, has to make a choice – stick with the Nationals and jettison net zero or break the Coalition and pitch a climate policy that will be acceptable to voters. The problem is that neither option will deliver them electoral success. Progressives are enjoying some rare schadenfreude over this conservative dilemma. It seems that the British Labour Party has got itself into a similar dilemma, with pressure from the Right-wing Reform Party to water down its climate policy. But what is more interesting in the UK setting is the role played by Labour’s former Prime Minister, who is also now attacking ‘green’ stances. I predict that will not end well for Starmer and Co. Fortunately, the Australian Labor party, which is also in government is sticking to a more ambitious climate agenda, although, even then, it is not ambitious enough. However, governments that are pursuing a net zero agenda must provide security for communities and regions that will bear the brunt of the policies introduced. The resistance to change that political forces such as Reform UK exploit can be easily offset if governments accompany their net zero agenda with a Just Transition framework. However, there is an absence of policy development in that area.

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Field trip to the Philippines – Report

I have been working in Manila this week as part of a ‘knowledge sharing forum’ at the House of Representatives which was termed ‘Pathways to Progress Transforming the Philippine Economy’ that was run by the Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department, attached to the Congress (Government). I am also giving a presentation at De La Salle University on rogue monetary policy. It has been a very interesting week and I came in contact with several senior government officials and learned a lot about the way they think and do their daily jobs. I Hope the interactions (knowledge sharing) shifted their thinking a little and reorient to some extent the way they construct fiscal policy. This blog post reports (as far as I can given confidentiality) what went on at the Congress.

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The dislocation between the PMC and the rest of the working class – Part 2

I mentioned last week in this blog post – The dislocation between the PMC and the rest of the working class – Part 1 (November 11, 2024) – that I had been reading the 2021 book – Virtue Hoarders: The Case Against the Professional Managerial Class (published by Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press) – written by US cultural theorist – Catherine Liu It is now an open access document. It provides a brutal critique of the professional-managerial class, which she thinks has become so associated with the aspirations of the capital class’ that it has lost any progressive force in society. Here is Part 2 of that discussion.

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Government job creation programs deliver significant (net) long-term benefits

On April 5, 1933, US President Roosevelt made an executive decision to create the – Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) – which was a component of the suite of government programs referred to as the – New Deal – that defined the Federal government’s solution to the mass unemployment that arose during the early years of the – Great Depression. These programs have been heavily criticised by the free market set as being unnecessary, wasteful and ineffective. Critics assert that no long-term benefits are forthcoming from such programs. However, those assertions are never backed by valid empirical evidence. A recent study by US academics has provided the first solid piece of evidence that the CCC delivered massive long-term benefits to the individuals who participated in it. And these benefits considerably outweigh the dollars outlaid by the government. I discuss that research today. The results also point to the effectiveness of a Job Guarantee program.

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Degrowth and Japan – a shift in government strategy towards business failure?

I am briefly in the UK (arrived Tuesday and returning to Melbourne early Friday). We are officially launching our new book – Modern Monetary Theory: Bill and Warren’s Excellent Adventure – later this morning at the UK MMT Conference in Leeds, England. I am avoiding many of the sessions to reduce Covid risk, given the lecture theatres do not seem to have been refitted with modern ventilation. But from what I can see the Conference is well attended and going well. I should add that I had nothing to do with the organisation of the Conference but as usual I thank those who have put time to build an event that focuses on the work that I am part of. Anyway, a whirlwind trip this time. Today, though I reflect on the latest developments in Japan with respect to its ageing and shrinking population and how that impacts on business viability and skill shortages. All part of my research on degrowth strategies.

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