I got on a plane on Monday and flew many hours. I was in search of the public debt overhang. I read and read many articles during my journey to the other side of the planet (where these overhangs are apparently sighted on a daily basis). But in the cold (very) early (very) hours of today, I concluded my mission was a failure. The rumours of a public debt overhang, whatever that might be, remain just that – the mumbling gossip that passes for truth once the public start spreading it. In the world of facts, such an overhang eludes specification. In January 2013, at the annual American Economic Association meeting (January 4-6, 2013) in San Diego, there was a panel session with a number of allegedly “leading” economists. Their deliberations were apparently public endorsement of the claim that government debt had reached a dangerous overhang and would undermine growth prospects for the future. The policy options were limited and all involved harsh fiscal austerity – or in IMF speak “growth friendly fiscal consolidation” (which is my nomination for the joke phrase of 2013). The problem was that a few months later the IMF released a major update (October WEO) where they appeared to deny the presence of a “tipping point” – some dangerous threshold that public debt should not exceed (R&R-style). So here is how it all unfolded …

The title gives the game away – Hope all that’s left as growth slows to crawl. It was written by Ross Gittins, the Sydney Morning Herald’s economics editor. Hope is all we have because this thing we call the economy is beyond us and not something we can control. That is the mainstream conceptualisation of the economy as some sort of deity which we just have to offer our sacrifices to and hope for the best. Australia is weathering a renewed burst of deficit terrorism. The media is running stories every day at present about the need to make massive cuts to federal spending and how taxes have to rise to “repair” the budget. The way the issue is being framed by the media is asinine in the extreme. Worse is the fact that the media is refusing to offer a balance to the issue. There is no debate. Mindless TV presenters and journalists are just pumping out “press releases” from partisan think-tanks without the slightest reflection about whether the underlying assumptions are correct. A bad day for informed debate.

I have very little time today to write, first a very long flight and then preparation for a major release tomorrow of our latest Employment Vulnerability Index (EVI), which measures the risk of localised communities in Australia of unemployment as the economy slows. We have a very neat mapping tool and I will write about that tomorrow once the press launch occurs (first thing). But I am also working on various other papers and, as usual, have become immersed in the Phillips curve. I remember when I first started by PhD at the University of Manchester in the early 1980s, my then supervisor said to me on the first day that once I started modelling inflation and unemployment (the Phillips curve) I would never stop. Among other truths he uttered during my time in that dank part of the world that statement was spot on. Every now and then I return to the topic and update, revise, re-create and (sometimes) even innovate. So today’s blog is just a collection of snippets of the more accessible things I have been working on over the last few days. It starts with a graph that appeared in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook in April 2013. Then follow the graphs. Conclusion: The NAIRU as estimated is a very dangerous concept for the well-being of ordinary people.

The opening paragraph read “National debt will continue to balloon throughout the first term of the Coalition government, despite harsh spending cuts to be identified by a Commission of Audit, a crackdown on public service jobs, and a promise that government would be smaller”. Of-course, the journalist meant to say “because of” rather than “despite” but his neo-liberal keyboard thwarted his better understanding. The article was about the debate now in full swing about our debt ceiling. That’s right, suddenly, Australia has a debt ceiling debate. As if the nonsense in the US wasn’t enough. We had to show the world how stupid we are as a nation by having our own ceiling and then spawning a debate about, which then sees salivating journalists chasing politicians around asking them all sorts of questions about increasing it etc. None of the above has any foundation in economics yet will lead to poor policy choices being taken which will undermine social and economic prosperity. What a vacuous world politics and the industry that is fed by it really is!

In 1944, Swedish economist Gunnar Myrdal published his famous 1,500 page work – An American Dilemma: The Negro Problem and Modern Democracy, which documented the conflict in American society driven by what he called the “American Creed”, which is about the “ideals of equality and liberty” and the obvious “moral lag in the development of the nation”, which at the time was referred to as “the Negro problem”. More recently, a book by American academic Nancy DiTomaso – The American Non-Dilemma – challenges the earlier notion and argues that whites in America are able to exploit racial inequality without doing “bad things” to blacks. Both works are interesting, but the more recent work fits with my current research because it introduces a new conflict, albeit unwittingly, that centres on whether you reap the seeds you sow.