Using welfare systems to hide the problem of deindustrialisation

There have been lots of E-mail requests overnight for commentary on the US election result. I think that space is pretty crowded at present – with Clinton supporters trying to reconstruct events to defray their responsibility (a denial strategy), in a similar vein to the Remainers in Britain in the early days after the Brexit vote. I expect to read learned columns in the New York Times and other establishment newspapers in the weeks ahead outlining, with all the gravity that is possible in the written word, how millions of Americans who voted for Trump are now regretting it. Same as in the UK. I expect to read a lot about racism and misogyny and various numbers wheeled out to show who voted for whom to prove this or that. The twitterverse has already gone crazy with this sort of ‘analysis’. Maybe later when I have had a chance to reflect on the actual data I might write something. But what part of “the people are sick of the establishment even though they don’t quite know what they are going to do about it and given the choices support those who will do little about it” is hard to understand. The neo-liberal lust has created a monster that they now cannot control. The highly concentrated mainstream media doesn’t call the shots as much as it did. The academic economists who preach fear of change but who people know from the GFC are a depreciated cohort without much insight at all are now ignored. That is how I am seeing it. A great chance for a new progressive element but also space for the worst of the right-wing to fill. A big contest is now there for ideas to play out. The only problem is that the mainstream ‘progressive’ forces (like the Democrats, British Labour Party, Socialist Parties, etc) have been so captured by the establishment that they have become the establishment – neo-liberal to the core. But today, I will write a bit about the abuse of Disability Support Pension schemes to hide unemployment and make austerity look less worse than it is.

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Hyman Minsky was not a guiding light for MMT

I am currently working on a book commissioned by Edward Elgar which will form an anthology of influential Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) literature – how it evolved – with a long introduction by me tying all this literature together. It has been a simmering project for the last 18 months and I haven’t mentioned it here until now. The first task was to assemble the literature and then the next task was that the publisher (EE) has to get copyright clearance from the original holders. The second process has taken some time and I have had to alter the proposed table of contents because we cannot get copyright clearance. The reason I mention this is that the work of Hyman Minsky is not among the literature I have selected as being influential in the intellectual development of MMT. That is not to say that some of his earlier work was of no interest. Quite the contrary. But when he makes statements that appear to be consistent with MMT propositions, he is, in my view, just channelling the likes of Abba Lerner and his functional finance. But later in his career, Minsky started to articulate ideas that were consistent with ‘sound finance’, which Lerner had opposed, and, which is anathema to MMT.

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US employment falls in October signalling increased weakness

After last month’s US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data (for September) I assessed that – The US labour market is nowhere near full employment. This was in the context of overtly political (ideological) and ridiculous statements made by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who had claimed that the US economy had already returned to full employment. The current BLS data release – Employment Situation Summary – October 2016 – has not altered my view. It showed that total non-farm employment from the payroll survey rose by 161,000 and the unemployment rate remained “little changed” at 4.9 per cent. But from the perspective of the labour force survey (Current Population Survey), total employment fell by 43 thousand. See below for an explanation of that paradox. The point is that employment still remains well below the pre-GFC peak and the jobs that have been created in the recovery are biased towards low pay. In general, the problem is less job creation as quality of the work being created and the capacity of US workers to enjoy wage increases. There are also wide disparities among state unemployment rates.

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The Weekend Quiz – November 5-6, 2016 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for this Weekend’s Quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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The European Commission turns a blind eye to record German external surpluses

Data released by Eurostat (October 20, 2016) – EU28 current account surplus €13.5 bn – shows that the EU28 ran a significant current account surplus in August 2016 following a surplus of €11.3 billion in July. The August result is up €5.3 billion on August 2015. Net trade in goods and in services is more or less equally balanced. The stunning result is that the German current account surplus in August 2016 was €17.87 billion up from €14.43 billion in August 2015., while the next largest Eurozone Member State surplus was Italy at €3.37 billion. Germany is also running a fiscal surplus of around 1.2 per cent of GDP at present, which means the private domestic sector is saving massive amounts, which, in turn, not only results in subdued demand within Germany (and low growth) but also reduces import spending. In turn, this reduces growth in other nations. The stunning fact is that the European Commission is doing nothing about this massive imbalance despite Germany being in serial contravention of the rules relating to macroeconomic imbalances. The Brussels jackboot is quick to kick Greece but stays well away from sanctioning Germany, even though the German behaviour is much more deleterious to the viability of the common currency.

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The Weekend Quiz – October 29-30, 2016 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for this Weekend’s Quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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The case against free trade – Part 1

Like many aspects of mainstream economic theory – free trade – is one of the concepts that sounds okay at first but the gloss quickly fades once you understand the basis of the theory and how it derives its seemingly ideal results. In practice, the textbook ‘model’ is never attainable in reality and so what goes for ‘free trade’ is really a stacked deck of cards that has increasingly allowed large financial capital interests to rough ride over workers, consumers and undermine the democratic status of elected governments. Further, even within the mainstream approach the terrain has moved. The old perfectly competitive ‘models’ of free trade, which go back to the Classical economist David Ricardo and were embodied in the so-called Heckscher-Ohlin and were used to disabuse notions of government intervention (protection, tariffs, import duties etc), have been surpassed in the literature. This blog is Part 1 in a two-part (might be three) series on why progressives should oppose moves to ‘free trade’ and instead adopt as a principle the concept of ‘fair trade’, as long as it doesn’t compromise the democratic legitimacy of the elected government. This is a further instalment to the manuscript I am currently finalising with co-author, Italian journalist Thomas Fazi. The book, which will hopefully be out soon, traces the way the Left fell prey to what we call the globalisation myth and formed the view that the state has become powerless (or severely constrained) in the face of the transnational movements of goods and services and capital flows. This segment fits into Part 3 which focuses on ‘what is to be done’.

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Rising inequality and underconsumption

John Atkinson Hobson was an English economist in the second-half of the C19th and worked well into the C20th, dying at the age of 81 in 1940. I have been reflecting on his work in the context of wage and other labour market developments in recent years. Hobson, individually and with co-authors, provided some excellent insights into how rising income inequality, mass unemployment and increased poverty destabilises the economic system through its impacts on consumption spending. He argued that government should engender what he called a ‘high-wage economy’ which would provide the best basis for prosperity. He was writing as an antagonist to the trends of the day, which considered wage suppression to be good for business and society. In this blog, we consider some of those issues. This is a further instalment to the manuscript I am currently finalising with co-author, Italian journalist Thomas Fazi. The book, which will hopefully be out soon, traces the way the Left fell prey to what we call the globalisation myth and formed the view that the state has become powerless (or severely constrained) in the face of the transnational movements of goods and services and capital flows. This segment fits into Part 3 which focuses on ‘what is to be done’.

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The ‘World’s Wrongest Man’ at it again – when does credibility evaporate?

The “World’s Wrongest Man”, one Michael Jay Boskin, an economics professor at Stanford and former chairperson of the Council of Economic Advisors under George W. Bush is back with another stunning piece of sophistry. He has been an outspoken Op Ed commentator (particularly in the Wall Street Journal) for many years now, and, is typically completely wrong in the predictions he makes. His latest intervention into the policy debate is via the Project Syndicate banner – which claims it publishes “the Smartest Op-Ed Articles from the World’s Thought Leaders”. Having Boskin writing for them surely negates that claim. His latest offering (October 23, 2016) – Prepare for the next recession – while you can – continues his long career for making ridiculous statements about economic matters. One thinks it is really time he did something else.

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The Weekend Quiz – October 22-23, 2016 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for this Weekend’s Quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Australian labour market – continues to deteriorate – fiscal stimulus needed

The last few months Australian Bureau of Statistics data has shown that Austrlia is becoming a nation of part-time employment. The latest labour force data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force data – for September 2016 shows that trend to be intensifying with negative employment growth being recorded for the second consecutive month and a 0.4 decline in the participation rate over the same period. Over the last 12 months, Australia has produced a total (net) of 163.1 thousand jobs overall with 196.1 thousand part-time jobs being offset by the higher quality loss of 86.5 thousand jobs. Australia maintains its status as the nation of part-time employment growth with all the attendant negative consequences. Further, the only reason that the unemployment level and rate fell is because the labour force shrank faster than total employment. This was due to the 0.2 percentage point decline in participation. The teenage labour market remains in a poor state and requires urgent policy intervention. Overall, with weak private investment now on-going, the Australian labour market is looking in pretty dismal shape and the Federal government should immediately renounce its ill-informed austerity narrative and announce a rather sizeable fiscal stimulus to provide some fiscal leadership to the nation. This should include a large-scale public sector job creation program which would ensure teenagers regained the jobs that have been lost due to the fiscal drag over the last several years. The deteriorating data is staring us all in the face now! There is no room for nuance.

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Australian national broadcaster gives ignorance the national stage

Our national broadcaster, the ABC, has a regular panel program called Q&A as part of its TV offerings where a panel of so-called experts are assembled each Monday night to wax lyrical about some particular and contentious topic. The ABC claims it provides a balanced coverage, which is required as part of its legal charter as the public broadcaster, yet on economic issues it clearly fails in this regard. Even the so-called progressive voices it ever puts on have broadly neo-liberal economic views regarding government fiscal capacities etc. Last Monday, the ABC breached its responsibilities even further by giving centre stage on economic matters to a person who clearly has no understanding of the issues she was holding out expertise in. I didn’t watch the program but the transcript reveals that the conversation was a violation of any intellectual standards. The ABC has descended into the gutter of tabloid journalism. What a shame!

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Ending food price speculation – Part 1

We are currently finalising the manuscript of my latest book (with co-author, Italian journalist Thomas Fazi) which traces the way the Left fell prey to what we call the globalisation myth and formed the view that the state has become powerless (or severely constrained) in the face of the transnational movements of goods and services and capital flows. We argue that while social democratic politicians frequently opine that national economic policy must be acceptable to the global financial markets and, as a result, champion right-wing policies that compromise the well-being of their citizens, the reality is that currency-issuing governments retain the capacity to ensure there is full employment and can advance the material well-being of their citizens. In Part 3 of the book, which we are now completing, we aim to present a ‘Progressive Manifesto’ to guide policy design and policy choices for progressive governments. We also hope that the ‘Manifesto’ will empower community groups by demonstrating that the TINA mantra, where these alleged goals of the amorphous global financial markets are prioritised over real goals like full employment, renewable energy and revitalised manufacturing sectors is bereft and a range of policy options, now taboo in this neo-liberal world are available. A chapter in Part 3 will concentrate on financial market reforms (what to do with banks etc) and one topic in that context relates to the area of food speculation. We argue that food speculation causes havoc in poor nations and a progressive stance should make it illegal. The enforcement would be through the new institutional framework I outlined previously. In today’s blog I discuss the arguments advanced to justify our position.

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The US labour market is nowhere near full employment

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John C. Williams pronounced in a recent speech (September 6, 2016) – Whither Inflation Targeting? – that “We’re at full employment”, meaning US economy that is. He must have access to different data than the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes, because the official data tells a very different story once you understand what it is you have to look for in the statistics presented. Last week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September 2016 – Employment Situation – which showed that total non-farm employment rose by only 156,000 and the unemployment rate remained “little changed” at 5 per cent. The Federal Reserve President’s surmise raises the question as to whether the US has returned to where it was before the GFC. Despite his optimism, the evidence refutes the claim that the US is near full employment. It also suggests that the situation is more likely to worsen than to improve.

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Reforming the international institutional framework – Part 4

This is the fourth and final part of the discussion relating to reforming the international institutional framework. In brief, the argument is that there are several essential functions that a multilateral institutional framework has to serve that need to be incorporated within any new structure. It is clear that an agency to channel development aid remains essential. Further, it is important to create an agency that will provide liquidity to nations who are unable to access essential imported resources (such as food) without invoking exchange rate crises. While these functions seem to align with the current World Bank and the IMF, a progressive approach to service delivery in these areas would not resemble the operational procedures currently in place.

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Pragmatic retreats into reality by the IMF will be ephemeral

On June 26, 2016, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) published its – 86th Annual Report, 2015/16 – claimed that “there is an urgent need to rebalance policy in order to shift to a more robust and sustainable global expansion and address accumulated vulnerabilities”. Yesterday (October 5, 2106), the IMF issued its latest – Fiscal Monitor – Debt: Use it Wisely – which as the title might suggest focuses on what it sees as a dangerous exposure to global debt, which it currently estimates to be “at 225 percent of world GDP … currently at an all-time high.” Needless to say, this latest offering from the IMF has attracted news headlines with dire warnings about impending catastrophes. Some of this emphasis is justified but overall the IMF is erring, once again, in the opposite direction to its pre-GFC prediction errors. The context is obvious – mass unemployment continues as economic growth is stalling (or modest at best) because of a combination of non-government sector spending caution and the government obsession with fiscal austerity. The latter obsession has been stoked for years by the likes of the BIS and the IMF and while they do not explicitly recognise that in these latest documents, their stilted support for more fiscal action now, amounts to an admission of prior failures driven by the neo-liberal Groupthink that pervades these institutions.

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Latest news on European Youth Guarantee hardly inspiring

The European Commission released a new report yesterday (October 4, 2016) – The Youth Guarantee and Youth Employment Initiative three years on – which provides an updated evaluation of the progress of the policy framework designed to reduce youth unemployment. The results are as one would expect after taking into account the design limitations of the Youth Guarantee – pretty disappointing. We learn that for the 20 countries for which there is available data – “Of the 2.5 million young people that left YG schemes … during 2015, less than 0.9 million (35.5%) were known to be in employment, education or training 6 months after exit”. That is an appalling result really and signifies that the design of the program should be reappraised and changed to accord with characteristics of an ideal Job Guarantee program. These results are unsurprising, dismal though they are.

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An optimistic view of worker power

I am close to finishing the manuscript for my next book (with co-author, Italian journalist Thomas Fazi) which traces the way the Left fell prey to what we call the globalisation myth and formed the view that the state has become powerless (or severely constrained) in the face of the transnational movements of goods and services and capital flows. Social democratic politicians frequently opine that national economic policy must be acceptable to the global financial markets and, as a result, champion right-wing policies that compromise the well-being of their citizens. In Part 3 of the book, which we are now completing, we aim to present a ‘Progressive Manifesto’ to guide policy design and policy choices for progressive governments. We also hope that the ‘Manifesto’ will empower community groups by demonstrating that the TINA mantra, where these alleged goals of the amorphous global financial markets are prioritised over real goals like full employment, renewable energy and revitalised manufacturing sectors is bereft and a range of policy options, now taboo in this neo-liberal world are available. In today’s blog I discuss trade unions and strategies available for workers.

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The Weekend Quiz – October 1-2, 2016 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for this Weekend’s Quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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First appearance by Australia’s new central bank governor disappointing

On September 18, 2016, the Reserve Bank of Australia ushered in a new governor, in the form of Philip Lowe. It been the deputy governor for several years and has worked at the RBA all his professional life except for a short stint with the Bank of International Settlements. He speaks Central Bank-speak. On September 22, 2016, he appeared for the first time as governor before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics and delivered the RBA Annual Report 2015 to Parliament. His – Opening Statement – and the subsequent answers to questioning by the House Committee members were revealing because they indicated that the new governor clearly understood the vexed situation that the government had placed the central bank in over the last decade or so, but, at the same time, indicated he was also prepared to continue perpetuating neo-liberal myths that have created the vexed situation in the first place. Not a great start in my opinion. The full transcript of the hearing is available in the Parliamentary Transcript.

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