US Presidential candidate Ron Paul released his – Plan to Restore America – yesterday, saying that it will deliver a balanced budget within three years – cutting public spending by $1 trillion in year one, slash “regulations” and “reign in the Federal Reserve and get inflation under control”. The 11 -page document has lots of tables and graphs and says that “America is the greatest nation in human history” (plaudits) but if you search for some theoretical framework or some evidential-basis for the numbers presented you will be very disappointed. You will read that Americans have a “respect for individual liberty, free markets, and limited constitutional government” and that returning (public) spending (mostly) to 2006 (nominal) levels is somehow good. Cutting federal employment by 10 per cent is also good. Cutting all regulations is also good. But that is about as far as the textual rendition goes before you hit the tables and graphs. When I read the document I couldn’t help thinking that someone had run wild with an Excel spreadsheet.

Everywhere I look I find examples of politicians and leading lights making macroeconomic statements without understanding macroeconomics. Given that these statements have policy implications that impact on real people making such erroneous statements – no matter how well-intentioned one is – is a dangerous thing that we should avoid. Imagine if I suddenly started to make claims about the strength of bridges such that they would fall down if my advice was taken. There would be a law against that. One notable economist apparently thinks that macroeconomics is not “regular economics” – but rather some far-fetched misplaced set of ideas that would be better forgotten. My view is different. A correctly specified macroeconomics provides a safeguard against falling into logical traps – such as the fallacy of composition. The so-called “regular economics” is a fantasy world where the angels on the pinheads are assumed away into one representative angel who knows all and never makes a mistake (on average). If you want to understand how mass unemployment arises and how it is solved then the mainstream version of “regular economics” will leave you in the dark.

Paul Krugman (August 20, 2011) was bemoaning the loss of intellectual values in the current debate when he referred to this Wall Street Journal article (August 19, 2011) – Why Americans Hate Economics. On face value I concluded that the WSJ had stumbled onto something – that the mainstream economics profession was not worth its salt. I was wrong though. The WSJ author was making a case that we should return to the economics that dominated the world prior to the Great Depression. The problem is that it is this way of thinking that represents the dominant paradigm today. It is the paradigm which has caused all the problems. It is this mainstream paradigm that people hate. The WSJ author is very confused. But then Paul Krugman’s response is hardly meritorious. So this is why the World hates economics – by which we mean mainstream New Keynesian macroeconomics.

I was looking at yields today and you cannot help noticing that bond markets are become more attracted to government debt each day. So much for the arguments we have been hearing ad nauseum over the last few years that governments were about to feel the cold hand of the markets who would punish them by dumping their debt unless they imposed harsh austerity. The problem is that the attraction of government debt does not signify that markets are rewarding governments for their fiscal austerity efforts. In fact, it is exactly the opposite. The markets are realising that austerity is now undermining economic growth and the claims by politicians and economists that we would enjoy a “fiscal contraction expansion” if only the government got off the backs of the private sector are now being revealed as lies. The world economy is tanking. Day by day the evidence mounts. The safest place to be when the economy heads south is in cash or government bonds.

I have always been sceptical of the way the US Congressional Budget Office computes its structural deficit decomposition – that is, separates out the cyclical effects (the automatic stabilisers) from the underlying policy settings. I have written about that before. This came back to my attention span again today after I read a column in the New York Times (July 10, 2011) which reported that an “extraordinary amount of personal income” for Americans is now “coming from the US government”. That combined with a really stupid Bloomberg editorial yesterday (July 11, 2011) led me to investigate further. What I found hardly surprised me but reinforced how the American people are being let down by their leaders with the financial press mostly reinforcing the lies.

A few things came up today which I thought I would write about – albeit briefly (but then that is all relative I suppose). In general I am scaling down blog activity on Fridays. But today the Australian government released a final evaluation report on one of its big fiscal stimulus infrastructure projects. The Report attracted the typical biased headlines – massive government waste. Over in the UK, the wreck of News Limited’s News of the World proved – once again – that the private sector cannot be trusted to self-regulate resonating what we learned from the financial crash but seem to have forgotten already. These two observations are related and so today I consider the notion of government waste.

It is going to be brief today – it is a holiday in Australia. Queen’s Birthday no less. Can you believe that we are still under the yoke of our colonial masters? Anyway, a winter’s holiday – pouring rain and cold. But I read a couple of things today which I thought were worth interrupting other work to write about as they establish some general principles relevant to understanding Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). The discussion also highlights the recurrent nature of the prophecies of doom – that come from the likes of the Peter G. Peterson foundation now but others in the past. We were told in the 1930s that profligate governments would go bankrupt. They didn’t but when they cut back there economies went broke. The Japanese government was predicted to become insolvent in the 1990s along with hyperinflation and skyrocketing interest rates. Nothing happened other than the fiscal austerity that was imposed as a result of the political pressure arising from these predictions sent the economy back into recession. Same as now … fiscal austerity – imposed because allegedly budgets are unsustainable – will drive economies back towards and into recession. When will we ever learn?

As a service to humanity, I decided to rip off the title for today’s blog from an article that was published on Monday (February 7, 2011) in the Washington Times – Destructive economic myths. My blog is highly rated by Google so if some innocent bystanders happen to go searching for that article they might also bring up my blog, get confused, click my link instead of the Washington Times and learn some facts that will help them oppose the political nonsense that both sides of politics in the US is engaged in at present – as the vote to change the debt ceiling approaches (March 1, 2011). I might be too late but it is worth a try*. Anyway, the austerity push is being justified by recourse to the same misinformation and lies that was used to deregulate the world economy (particularly the financial system) which led to the financial and then economic crisis that still endures. Talk about destructive economic myths!

Research has shown conclusively in the past that those who undergo mainstream economics training are more selfish, less co-operative, less honest and less generous than other groups. These insidious qualities are reinforced and strengthen over the course of their undergraduate years. There has also been conjecture about the political role played by conservative economists – that is, that they provide authority for the industrial and financial elites to lobby politicians to introduce policy regimes that create the conditions whereby these groups can appropriate an ever increasing share of real income. They have been used to perpetuate the myth that the “business cycle” was dead and hence governments should have limited involvement in the “market economy” which was promoted as being self-regulating and capable of maximising wealth creation for the benefit of everyone. It was clear that this was always a sham and ideologically based rather than ground in any theoretical legitimacy or evidence-based standing. The fact that the mainstream failed to predict the crisis and have no tools in their models to provide a solution to the dramatic private spending collapse reinforced the notion that mainstream economists were ideological warriors. But new research has provided another clue – their brains are thinner!