Friday lay day – lightweight garbage from The Economist

Its my Friday Lay Day blog and I have several deadlines on other projects coming up like today even! But I am sick of the Economist Magazine being held out as a voice of moderation and sound analysis. It has always been a merchant of so-called free market myths and adopting the conservative, anti-government intervention line. It claims that it “offers authoritative insight and opinion on international news, politics, business, finance, science and technology”. It frothed lovingly when Margaret Thatcher was running her wrecking ball through the UK under the guise of ‘reform’. It didn’t say a word when the financial market deregulation that her government and its successors, including Tony Blair’s New Labour, set in place and fostered, started to turn ugly well before the crash that started the GFC. It is not moderate at all. It has come to the Attack Corbyn Campaign somewhat later in the piece but better late than never I suppose. It article (September 24, 2015) – Murphy’s law unto himself – is a disgrace. Its reveals that the Econmomist is a tawdry little rag that feigns understanding but reveals ignorance. This article is really just a spewing out of some poor undergraduate mainstream macroeconomics textbook chapter or two without any guile or deeper comprehension.

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Latest EU long-term unemployment proposal – nary a job in sight!

Last week (September 17, 2015), the European Commission announced – Long-term unemployment: Europe takes action to help 12 million long-term unemployed get back to work. The press release summarised the latest proposal from the European Commission – On the integration of the long-term unemployed into the labour market – which outlines a series of initiatives that aim to “to better help long-term unemployed return to work”. I studied the proposal in detail and came to a stark conclusion – there is nary a job in sight!

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Saturday Quiz – September 19, 2015 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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When one false starting premise leads to progressive confusion

Its my Friday lay day and brevity will triumph today. It might just be a case of a poorly edited title, but a current article in the Jacobin Magazine (September 17, 2015) – Why Leftists Should Be Deficit Hawks – shows that if one starts from a wrong premise the conclusions will lead one astray no matter how noble the intentions are. Progressives have to get the basics of macroeconomics correct before they launch into critiques of this and that. Otherwise they get stranded in this ‘neo-liberal’ space of government financial constraints without really realising it. And then the wheels fall off because they are reduced to arguments like “we have to tax the rich to pay for the services to the poor”, which of course, is nonsense and self-defeating. There are much smarter ways to proceed.

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Rejecting the TINA mantra and the second ‘Gilded Age’

There was an interesting article by US historian Jackson Lears in the in the London Review of Books (July 16, 2015) – The Long Con: Techno-Austerity. I recommend people regularly reading the LRB because it has some fabulous articles. In this case, the review by Jackson Lears is of the recent book by Steve Fraser – The Age of Acquiescence: The Life and Death of American Resistance to Organised Wealth and Power (published by Little, Brown). I have taken time to write about this because I had to read the book being reviewed myself first. There is also an excellent review of the book by Naomi Klein in the New York Times – ‘The Age of Acquiescence,’ by Steve Fraser (March 16, 2015). So what is it about?

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Friday – when banks were banks

It is my Friday lay day and I am quite distracted with other commitments. But at the London presentation a few weeks ago, I mentioned that I would scrap central banks and consolidate their functions within a division of what we now think of as Treasury departments (or Finance Ministries). Whenever you say that there is a ridiculous response from those who claim to know something about banking along the lines of either, it would cause hyperinflation or that the politicians cannot be trusted. Both arguments are as I say – ridiculous. There are some things that central banks do that are necessary, for example, maintain financial stability through the integrity of the payments system. They also, depending on the nation, manage foreign reserves although that function is unnecessary if exchange rates float. Yes (flame suit on) I know less developed countries face exchange rate volatility and have to import food to survive. Which brings me to the point. The first part of scrapping central banks is to eliminate their ideological/political function. They are bastions of conservative mythology – pick whichever one you like – expanding the money supply is inflationary, ‘printing money’ is inflationary, politician meddling in monetary policy is inflationary, financial markets will desert a country that does not have an independent central bank, etc ad nausea. Politicians also use the so-called independence of the central banks as a way of deflecting policy responsibility for mass unemployment. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) does not advocated doing away with the functions that are legitimately performed within the current central banks. It would stream-line some and make other functions redundant, but what it would do away with is this incessant cycle of ideology that emanates from these institutions.

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Saturday Quiz – September 5, 2015 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Friday lay day – the ‘worst tour’ in the world

Its my Friday lay day blog and I am on the austerity trail. I have been in Porto, Portugal for the last few days, ostensibly taking a short break by the beach. There has been no swell at all. The beach area to the south of the Douro River is like beach areas everywhere. They give little hint of what austerity has done to this country. Porto is the northern capital of Portugal and a town of around 240 thousand people (in 2012) with the wider region containing around 1.4 million people. It is considered one of “the major urban areas of Southwestern Europe.” But it is also disintegrating as an urban centre with an extraordinary number of derelict buildings and many shops closed as austerity ate into incomes and spending. There are decaying buildings everywhere some with for sale signs on the front. The urban infrastructure is falling apart – the main market is being held up with scaffolding and weeds overtake sporting arenas. In many respects, it looks like a city in the poorest nations rather than being part of Europe. Around a third of the inner city population has left. A large number of people in the greater urban area have left. The mobile are dominated by the young and the educated with the skills leaving behind an elderly population. There is little hope for the city under the current policy structures. A nation and its cities destroyed by austerity. There is no exaggeration here. I invite people to see for themselves. An extraordinary outcome of an out of control recession cult ideology reinforced by neo-liberal Groupthink ruining the prosperity of a people. I had quite a day yesterday as I went on a field trip around Porto organised by the – The Worst Tours.

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Australia national accounts – heading for recession at this rate

When the March-quarter 2015 National Accounts came out three months ago I wrote that “the fragility of growth increases”, as the economy descended into a state of weak growth well below the accepted trend rate. The latest data – June-quarter 2015 National Accounts data – released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today suggests that that fragility has worsened as net exports contracted sharply. Only household consumption and government spending (both consumption and investment) kept the Australian ecoomy growing, albeit at an aneamic rate of 0.2 per cent for the quarter and 2 per cent for the year to June 2015. But the trend is towards near zero growth and the ABS wrote that “Nominal GDP growth was 1.8% for the 2014-15 financial year”, which was “the weakest growth in nominal GDP since 1961-62.” The other notable result was that ‘income recession’ that Australia entered in the last quarter has consolidated wth the total market value of goods and services (GDP) outpacing the flow that Australian residents enjoy as income. Real net national disposable income fell by a further 0.9 per cent over the quarter and 1.1 per cent over the last year. While private consumption growth remained positive, the savings ratio continues to fall indicating indebtedness in on the increase as wages growth remains weak. The other notable result is that despite the call for austerity by the Federal government, gross fixed capital formation (investment) rose by only 0.4 per cen, driven entirely by public sector investment spending. Without the contribution of public spending overall, the Australian economy would have been in negative growth territory. Today’s data paints a very negative outlook for the Australian economy for the remainder of this year and into 2016. With real GDP growth well below that needed to reduce unemployment and underemployment, the government needs to stimulate the economy to boost income and employment growth. This would also allow wages to grow and take the squeeze off households.

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Friday lay day – the neo-liberal Groupthink conspiracy continues in Australia

Its my Friday lay day blog and today it comes from a dark London (given the hour). At present, there is an event going on in Australia that sums up what is wrong with our conception of the economy. The right-wing News Limited press and the conservative Fairfax financial newspaper along with a management consulting firm that has had its snout in the privatisation trough around the world (and given my location – was one of the ‘approved suppliers’ of support services as the British government moves to privatise the National Health Service) have organised what they call the ‘National Reform Summit 2015’. It brings together big business, the co-opted trade union movement and welfare agencies, academics who propagate neo-liberal fiscal myths, and government officials who are intent on pushing more deregulation and reduced government involvement in the economy. It beggars belief that this stuff can pass muster. But it is no surprise, given that the right-wing media is organising the show and can make money by pumping out ridiculous headlines that it knows will scare but the content will not be understood by the average reader. So as the neo-liberal Groupthink is not challenged publicly at the Summit, the organisers have carefully screened the invited participants to sing from the same hymn sheet. The cartoon that follows says it all really.

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Corbyn should stop saying he will eliminate the deficit

The New Labour group are clearly getting desperate in Britain and Blair himself has come out again to vilify Jeremy Corbyn and predict a Labour annihilation at the next general election. Clearly Blair and his cronies haven’t understood that their time in the sun is over. They recreated the Labour Party into a Tory mirror image on key issues and the grass roots of the Party is now reclaiming the lost ground. The UK Guardian article (August 12, 2015) – Syriza’s Greece: the canary in the cage for Corbyn’s Britain? – illustrates how stuck in the neo-liberal mud the British economic debate has become. It tries to claim that Corbyn is a throwback to the past and the policies that old Labour tried in the 1970s failed and would fail again. Clearly, the writer and most of the commentators which resonate the same message haven’t really understood the difference between a currency-issuing government and one bound by a mania for fixed exchange rates and fiscal surpluses. Increasingly, the attempts by Corbyn’s support base to appear to be ‘fiscally responsible’ tells me that he will not succeed in altering the debate if he continues to promote ideas that equate fiscal responsibility with deficit elimination. Fiscal responsibility is equated with achieving full employment with price stability – and in the current climate that would require a fiscal deficit some percent of GDP larger than what it is at present. Corbyn’s camp should be talking about that rather than deficit elimination, which is a ridiculous policy target to aspire to.

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Australia wages growth drops to a new record low

With the Chinese yuan now falling and the Australian dollar going with it, domestic inflation pressures will rise in Australia in the coming months. This doesn’t augur well for Australian workers who were told today that wages growth in the last quarter (June) was at the lowest on record. The Australian Bureau of Statistics published the latest – Wage Price Index, Australia – for the June-quarter today and annual private sector wages growth fell to 2.2 per cent (0.5 per cent for the quarter). This is the third consecutive month that the annual growth in wages has recorded its lowest level since the data series began in the December-quarter 1997. In the 2015-16 fiscal statement, the Government assumed wages growth for 2014-15 would be 2.5 per cent rising to 2.75 by 2017. On current trends, that is highly unlikely to occur, which means the forward estimates for taxation revenue are already falling short and the fiscal deficit will be larger than assumed. Depending on how we measure inflation, the annual wages growth translates into a small real wage rise or fall. Either way, real wages are growing well below trend productivity growth and Real Unit Labour Costs (RULC) continue to fall. This means that the gap between real wages growth and productivity growth continues to widen as the wage share in national income falls (and the profit share rises). The flat wages trend is intensifying the pre-crisis dynamics, which saw private sector credit rather than real wages drive growth in consumption spending. The lessons have not been learned.

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Ireland – the quantity-adjusting recovery

There was an interesting – Letter to the New York Times – last week (August 3, 2015) from an Irish academic (Stephen Kinsella) in response to an Op Ed by the German economist Hans-Werner Sinn (July 24, 2015) – Why Greece Should Leave the Eurozone. I found it interesting because for the last few weeks, since the latest – Irish national accounts data (July 30 2015) showed Ireland to be the fastest growing Eurozone nation I have been investigating what has been going on. The Op Ed by Sinn did not appear to accord with the data that I was examining. The subsequent ‘Letter’ confirmed that. The bottom line is that Ireland is not an example of a “supply-side” internal devaluation inspired recovery. In fact, it is an example of a straightforward “Keynesian” quantity adjustment aided by Ireland’s very open economy and the fact that is has been favourably disposed to growth elsewhere supported by on-going fiscal deficits.

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Jeremy Corbyn must break out of the neo-liberal framing

Two articles in the UK Guardian this week summarise what is going on with the British Labour Party at present. The first (August 3, 2015) – Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters aren’t mad – they’re fleeing a bankrupt New Labour – refutes the notions propagated by the previously dominant ‘New Labour’ factions that the Left of the Party are in some way mad, deluded, or otherwise sick. Instead, it argues the Left are part of a new “grassroots political movement” reacting to the bereft nature of New Labour which is without a “clear vision, or a set of policies, or even a coherent distinct set of values”. The second article (August 3, 2015) – Corbyn’s economic strategy would keep Tories in power, top Labour figure says – provides proof of concept. It is written by the Shadow Labour Chancellor Chris Leslie and reflects an abysmal understanding of macroeconomics that only a deluded free-marketeer would dare suggest had anything to do with reality. The article demonstrates that the top echelons of the British Labour Party parliamentary wing are caught in the destructive neo-liberal Groupthink economics that not only caused the GFC but has also led to austerity being the norm for policy makers these days. And there is no doubt that it is a failed doctrine and not worthy of a progressive opposition. The new “grassroots political movement” is reacting sensibly to the intellectual carnage at the top end of their Party and lets hope it is triumphant and purges these ideas from Labour forever. But, first, it must break out of the neo-liberal framing that is pervasive in its first major statement.

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Friday lay day – Italy’s time to demonstrate leadership

Its my Friday lay day blog and I am limping into the weekend to rest up some more. There was an interesting article in the Washington Post (July 31, 2015) – Why Italy is the most likely country to leave the euro. This accords with the view I outlined in my book – Eurozone Dystopia: Groupthink and Denial on a Grand Scale – that a large economy such as Italy should demonstrate leadership in the Eurozone and pave the way for the weaker nations to restore their own growth. We would not have witnessed the torturous brutality that was dealt out to Greece recently if the Troika were dealing with Italy. The question is whether Italy is likely to provide that leadership. On July 22, 2015, Eurostat released the latest government debt data for the Eurozone which showed that – Government debt rose to 92.9% of GDP in euro area – which, of course is well above the 60 per cent threshold allowed for by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). In the last 12 months “fourteen Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio at the end of the first quarter of 2015, twelve a decrease and in Estonia there was no change.” In the last quarter, fifteen states increased their debt ratios. Greece shows up as having the highest debt ratio but the largest reduction over the last year. But the interesting thing about the data is that Italy has the second-large public debt ratio (at 135.1 per cent) and is among the nations with the largest increases. On the numbers, Italy is being left behind, stuck in recession with high unemployment and a rising public debt ratio which will surely bring it into conflict with the Excessive Deficit Mechanism before too long.

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The damage of the Thatcher sea-change

When socio-economic historians reflect back in the decades to come, they will see the insanity that ruled the economic policy choices that have been taken in the last three or so decades more clearly than we seem to be able to discern as we live through the nightmare. They will conclude that arrangements such as the Eurozone was the work of lunatics who systematically undermined the prosperity of millions of people and polarised their societies as a consequence. There is no possible way that the Eurozone can be constructed as a successful monetary arrangement. The deeply flawed design of the common currency in Europe, was, in part, the product of the shift towards Monetarism and its microeconomic analogue (deregulation, privatisation, outsourcing etc) that surged back into dominance in the 1970s, after its main ideas had been thoroughly discredited and dismissed during the Great Depression. While Margaret Thatcher was not the first Monetarist government (that title goes to the government of President Giscard d’Estaing who appointed Raymond Barre as the Prime minister and Minister of Economy and Finance in 1976), her regime certainly influenced the spread of neo-liberal thinking among policy circles, particularly in the Anglo world. What is still not acknowledged is the damage done by that swing to so-called free-market policies, which would be better called pro-business capture given there was no real market forces unleashed, just an industry of parasitic, rent-seeking profiteers closely followed by the massive growth in the unproductive, wealth-shuffling financial sector. A recently released report (June 10, 2015) – The Macroeconomic Impact of Liberal Economic Policies – from researchers at the University of Cambridge lets us know more closely how damaging this period was and challenges the view that the best way forward is even more austerity and deregulation.

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The origins of the ‘leftist’ failure to oppose austerity

I note the calls for more discussion on the trap that the ‘left’ has made for itself by buying into the globalisation/political capture myth. As I have noted previously, I am currently researching a new book on this topic which might appear in 2016 but more likely early 2017, such is the delays in publishing. My current research is focusing on the 1960s and 1970s. I am exploring the deep infighting within the French state between the ‘Keynesians’ in the planning ministry and the ‘Monetarists’ in the finance ministry, which shaped the way the French ‘left’ dealt with issues of monetary integration and the like. I am also tracing the evolution of ‘left’ macroeconomic thinking, or rather, the absence of it, in the late 1960s as the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system collapsed and fiat currency freedom was taken up by governments around the world. In 1973, after several years of work, American sociologist James O’Connor published his book “The Fiscal Crisis of the State”, which was considered by many on the ‘left’ to explain why the Keynesian policy era had failed. This book and the derivative literature that followed it was extremely influential among ‘left’ scholars and effectively negated their capacity to challenge, what by the mid-1970s, was becoming the Monetarist resurgence. We can trace back the failure of the ‘left’ to fight against austerity to this period. This is just part of the work I am doing on this topic at present.

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Friday lay day – South Korea shows us a different way

Its my Friday lay day blog where I pretend to take it easy. Today I have a nice story to contrast with the shocking news we have been following over the last month or so from Europe. The economics news has been dominated by the madness and badness of the EU in recent weeks and how the miserably depressed Greece has been brought to heel by the EU bullies and will have to inflict even more austerity on its suffering people. Unemployment already above 26 per cent will rise further and more of its youth will head to other shores in search of opportunities. It is a process that is hollowing out the capacity of a nation. They do things differently in South Korea. The Korean government appears to actually care about its people. It provides a lesson for all nations who have become infected by the Recession Cult of Austerity (RCA).

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Euro exit will not be enough for Greece

An editorial article in BloombergView (July 15, 2015) – Leaving Euro Is Better Than Eternal Greek Crisis – argued, with providing evidence, that “it would be better for Europe’s economic policy makers to spend their time figuring out how to manage an orderly Greek exit than continuing to negotiate deal after sure-to-fail deal to keep Greece in the euro”. Regular readers will know that I support an orderly breakup of the entire monetary union and if that is not possible then individual nations should exit on their own accord and reestablish some sane proportion in their macroeconomic policy settings. But exit is not a sufficient condition for restoring prosperity to a nation. They would also have to simultaneously abandon the neo-liberal Groupthink that holds the Eurozone economy in a vice-like grip of austerity. Under those provisos, the Greek economy would return to growth immediately and they could eliminate unemployment within a few quarters.

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Beyond metaphor … comes total nonsense, German style

Under an accompanying heading – “Beyond Greece” – the German Handelsblatt (a daily financial/business newspaper) published the article (July 14, 2015) – The Uncomfortable Truth About Debt. It was meant to be some sort of justification for the touch German stance against Greece. The authors claimed that “Germany has been hounded internationally for taking a hard line on Greece. But there is a bigger problem on the horizon: the debt mountain in Europe, and the world, is too high”. My BS sensors were on high alert as I read the opening paragraphs. There was good reason for my alert – the article, which would have been read by tens of thousands of German corporate sector managers etc, demonstrates a palpable failure to comprehend what the real issues confronting the Eurozone are and how Eurozone Member States (19 of them) are fundamentally different in terms of fiscal capacity relative to nations that issue their own currency. No wonder the political classes in Germany can get away with behaving so abominably.

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