Australian labour market – part-time trend intensifies as total employment declines

The last few months Australian Bureau of Statistics data has shown that Austrlia is becoming a nation of part-time employment – in the 12 months to July 2016, 84 per cent of net employment created has been part-time and underemployment (workers desiring more hours but unable to find them) has risen. The latest labour force data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force data – for August 2016 shows that trend to be intensifying with negative employment growth and sharply a declining participation rate. With more than 82.3 per cent of total net jobs created over the last 12 months being part-time, it is clear that Australia maintains its status as the nation of part-time employment growth with all the attendant negative consequences. Further, the only reason that the unemployment level and rate fell is because the labour force shrank faster than total employment. This was due to the 0.2 percentage point decline in participation. The teenage labour market remains in a poor state and requires urgent policy intervention. Overall, with weak private investment now on-going, the Australian labour market is looking in pretty dismal shape and the recently elected Federal government should have introduced a rather sizeable fiscal stimulus immediately upon re-election to provide some fiscal leadership to the nation. This should have included a large-scale public sector job creation program which would ensure teenagers regained the jobs that have been lost due to the fiscal drag over the last several years. There are no signs that our polity understands any of that.

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OECD youth report – not a job in sight – Groupthink reigns supreme

Last week, the Australian National Accounts data showed that Australia had achieved 25 years without a recession. I commented on that data release in this blog – Australian national accounts – public spending saves nation from negative growth. I did several media interviews last week on this topic and, in general, the approach of the interviewer was to build this up into something almost mythical. The Government also rose beyond their usual smugness and claimed Australia was leading the world in economic policy given this track record. They don’t admit that the growth was spawned by a credit binge that has left households with record levels of debt and a housing market that is unaffordable for low income earners and young homebuyers. They also do not admit that more recently, a major fiscal intervention that continues has saved Australia from recession. Below the headlines though is a very murky situation and none more than the teenage labour market, a topic I have been trying to bring to the forefront in the public debate for many years now. The Brotherhood of St Laurence did eventually start agitating on this topic which gave it a higher visibility in the debate. But, in general, the Federal government is doing nothing constructive to solve the youth labour market crisis. And today’s release of the major OECD report – Investing in Youth: Australia – is so full of neo-liberal Groupthink language that it is clear the mainstream hasn’t grasped the problem yet – we need at least a hundred thousand new full-time jobs in the 15-19 segment alone!

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Australia’s race to the bottom to part-time jobs with low-pay

To coincide with the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the May 2016 Employment Situation I updated my analysis on the pay characteristics of the net job creation in the US labour market – see Bias toward low-wage job creation in the US continues. The overwhelming finding was that the jobs lost in low-pay sectors in the downturn have more than been offset by jobs added in these sectors in the upturn. However, the massive number of jobs lost in above-average paying sectors have not yet been recovered in the upturn and do not look like being so, given the labour market is slowing again. In other words there is a bias in employment generation towards sectors that on average pay below average weekly earnings. In the last 12 months, 86 per cent of the net jobs added in the Australian labour market have been part-time and underemployment has risen, suggesting a rise in casual work as well. Further analysis in this blog reveals that this accelerated trend towards part-time employment creation has been accompanied by a disproportionate shift towards low-pay employment (and below-average employment in general). The shifts over the last 6 months, in particular, towards below-average employment has been alarming. So come on down to Australia as our politicians take us on a race to the bottom in the part-time nation with low-pay, that barely grows at all. We are a very stupid nation supporting the policy structures that deliver this poverty of outcomes.

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Australian labour market – the part-time employment nation

Last month’s Australian labour force data showed what a part-time employment nation we were becoming. The latest labour force data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force data – for July 2016 shows that trend to be intensifying with modest employment growth and collapsing full-time employment growth. With more than 86 per cent of total net jobs created over the last 12 months being part-time, it is clear that Australia is becoming a nation of part-time employment growth with all the attendant negative consequences. The teenage labour market remains in a poor state and requires urgent policy intervention. Overall, with weak private investment now on-going, the Australian labour market is looking in pretty dismal shape and the recently elected Federal government should have introduced a rather sizeable fiscal stimulus immediately upon re-election to provide some fiscal leadership to the nation. This should have included a large-scale public sector job creation program which would ensure teenagers regained the jobs that have been lost due to the fiscal drag over the last several years. There are no signs that our polity understands any of that.

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Australian labour market – stagnating due to lack of overall spending

Last month’s Australian labour force data showed what a part-time employment nation we were becoming. The latest labour force data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force data – for June 2016 show that employment growth has virtually ground to a halt (although there was positive growth in full-time employment). The Australian labour market has stagnated with low to zero employment growth failing to match the underlying population growth, with the result that unemployment has risen over the last six months. The teenage labour market remains in a poor state and requires urgent policy intervention. Overall, with weak private investment now on-going, the Australian labour market is looking very weak and the Federal government should have introduced a rather sizeable fiscal stimulus in its June 2016 fiscal statement. That is what it should do now it has been re-elected. This should have included a large-scale public sector job creation program which would ensure teenagers regained the jobs that have been lost due to the fiscal drag over the last several years. We won’t be holding our breath!

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US labour market – some improvement but still soft

Last week (June 8, 2016), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics published the latest – Employment Situation – June 2016 – and the data shows that “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent” on the back of rising labour force participation. The Household Survey measure showed that employment grew in net terms by 67 thousand (0.04 per cent), which presents a more modest picture than the media reports, that focus on the payroll data, are portraying. Clearly, the 287,000 net jobs added according to the payroll data is a lot better than the 11,000 added according to the same measure in May 2016 (which was revised downwards from 38,000). Further, hours and earnings data suggests a fairly moderate labour market outlook rather than any boom conditions. Broad measures of labour underutilisation also indicate a worsening situation. Underemployment (persons employed part time for economic reasons), which had risen sharply in May (by 468,000) fell by 587 thousand in June, which along with the rising participation rate (a fall in the discouraged workers by 36 thousand), suggests a better state of affairs that was anticipated in May. It remains to be seen whether this renewed jobs growth reduces the bias towards low-pay jobs – which I most recently examined in this blog US jobs recovery biased towards low-pay jobs continues.

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Full employment = mass idle labour – detaching language from meaning

In the Golden Egg by Donna Leon, which I was reading on a flight over the weekend, there was a discussion about language and meaning. The detective in question was musing about how crimes are described and concluded that when we “detach language from meaning … The world is yours”. The worst crimes become anaesthetised. In my professional domain (economics), this detachment is rife and leads to poor policy choices. One such example, which is close to the focus of my own research work over the years has been the way in which the mainstream economists have revised the concept of full employment. We now read that Australia, for example, is at “full employment” when its official unemployment rate is 5.7 per cent (1.7 per cent above its previous low in February 2008), underemployment is 8.4 per cent, and the participation rate is still a full 1 percentage below its November 2010 peak (meaning some 190 thousand workers have dropped out of the labour force). By any stretch, the total labour underutilisation rate (that is, idle but willing labour) is in excess of 16 per cent. But to some smug journalists who cannot even get their facts straight, that is ‘full employment’. Mainstream economics – detaching language from meaning and misleading a nation as a result.

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Australia, the part-time employment nation – further poor labour market data

The latest labour force data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force data – for May 2016 show that those ominous signs that have been apparent for most of this year have brought the Labour market to a halt – stagnating with low to zero employment growth and static (slightly rising) unemployment at elevated levels. Trend employment growth has is slowly receding to zero. Total employment growth was virtually non-existent with only 17,900 (net) jobs created. Full-time employment remained unchanged after declining last two months. Almost all of the employment growth was part-time and most of that occurred in the teenage segment of the labour market, although that cohort went backwards in terms of full-time employment. Over the last six months, full-time employment has contracted by 44.4 thousand (net) jobs. Australia is becoming a part-time employer and that signals badly for the quality of work. Underemployment has also risen by 10 thousand or so since February 2016. The teenage labour market remains in a poor state and requires urgent policy intervention. Overall, with weak private investment now on-going, the Australian labour market is looking very weak and the Federal government should have introduced a rather sizeable fiscal stimulus in its May 2016 fiscal statement. This should have included a large-scale public sector job creation program which would ensure teenagers regained the jobs that have been lost due to the fiscal drag over the last several years. However, the Federal government appears incapable of addressing this dire issue. The current election campaign is bogged down in arcane and mythical discussions about running out of money and not being able to defend the economy if there is another crisis. Both major parties are constantly pretending they will be the best at “budget repair” (as if the fiscal balance is a car or something) even though the reality requires higher discretionary fiscal deficits at present. All make believe, while the real world does head towards another major rift. It should be up to the Opposition to shift the political agenda in the current election campaign. But, they are missing in action on these important issues.

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Australian labour market – continues to languish

The latest labour force data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force data – for April 2016 show that those ominous signs that have been apparent for most of this year are still hovering above the labour market. Total employment growth was virtually non-existent with only 10,800 (net) jobs created. Full-time employment decreased 9,300, while part-time employment increased by 20,200. It is the second consecutive month of negative full-time employment growth, which highlights the deteriorating labour market situation in Australia. There was also a decline in hours worked which is now trending downwards. Over the last six months, around 87 per cent of the net jobs created have been part-time. The growth in part-time work suggests that overall the quality of work in Australia again deteriorated. So overall a poor outcome. Unemployment rose marginally this month but this is largely because the weak employment growth is interacting with even weaker labour force growth. The participation rate fell again. The teenage labour market remains in a poor state and requires urgent policy intervention. Overall, with weak private investment now on-going, the Australian labour market is looking very weak and the Federal government should have introduced a rather sizeable fiscal stimulus in its recent fiscal statement. This should have included a large-scale public sector job creation program which would ensure teenagers regained the jobs that have been lost due to the fiscal drag over the last several years. However, the Federal government appears incapable of addressing this dire issue. It is embroiled in mythical discussions about running out of money and not being able to defend the economy if there is another crisis. All make believe, while the real world does head towards another major rift. It is up to the Opposition to shift the political agenda (in the current election campaign). But, they are missing in action on these important issues.

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Solving Our Unemployment Crisis presentation, April 19, 2016

Today, I am in Madrid for the start of the public events associated with the promotion of the Spanish version of my current book – Eurozone Dystopia: Groupthink and Denial on a Grand Scale. I travelled this morning from Granada to Madrid and am tied up for the rest of the day. So here is a video of a keynote address I presented on April 19, 2016 to the inaugural Australian Unemployed Workers’ Union Conference Solving Our Unemployment Crisis in Melbourne, Australia. You can find out more about the Union from their – homePage – and their – Facebook Page. They need more members and the support (funding, promotion etc) from all employed people who care about the problem of unemployment. The talk and questions go for about 37 minutes.

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