Australian labour market – flat and not looking very prospective

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for August 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market stalled this month with fairly weak employment growth, a falling participation rate, and flat hours worked. Unemployment decreased as did the unemployment rate but it that was all due to the decline in the participation rate – that is, unemployment was replaced by hidden unemployment as a result of the weak employment growth. The teenage labour market went backwards in August and their situation remains parlous. In a sense, this is the calm before the storm as private investment is forecast to decline rather sharply in the coming year and the government is intent on cutting its net spending. Either outcome will see the labour market retreat rather quickly.

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Australia labour force – employment rises – but caution required

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for July 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market improved this month with both positive employment growth and rising participation. Unemployment increased as did the unemployment rate because of the surge in participation. Teenagers gained some traction in employment growth this month but their situation remains parlous. As explained below, this month’s estimates should be heavily discounted given the population estimates the ABS use to scale its sample data are clearly overly optimistic. The data tells me that the economy is not going backwards and may be on the slight improve over the last few months. But with the forecasts for rather dire investment cuts by firms it is clearly too early to call an end to the very poor performances revealed over the last 36 months or so.

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Australian labour market – weak employment growth, rising unemployment

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for June 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market marked time this month with employment growth positive but weak and unemployment edging up slightly as a consequence. The data continues the repeating pattern over the last 24 months or so where employment growth zig-zags around the zero line and is weak at best. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 6 per cent, which was where we were a year ago. Underemployment remains high. Teenagers gained some full-time work but lost a near equivalent number of part-time jobs (probably a good net outcome). In general, the teenage labour market remains in a parlous state and requires an urgent policy intervention. While the press is claiming the latest data is a were “positive”, we can only conclude that if mediocrity has become our benchmark. Far from showing “the economy is in reasonable shape”, the data continues to confirm that the economy is incapable of generating sufficient employment growth to dent the huge unemployment pool, much less start reducing underemployment.

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Australian labour market – some growth but unlikely to be a trend

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for May 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market was stronger than last month, when it contracted. The data continues the repeating pattern over the last 24 months or so where employment growth zig-zags around the zero line and is weak at best. Overall employment growth was relatively strong, although most of the gains were in part-time work. There was minimal shift in working hours. The unemployment rate fell to 6 per cent, which was where we were a year ago. Underemployment was unchanged over the last three months. Teenagers did not participate in the growth and that segment of the labour market remains in a parlous state and requires an urgent policy intervention. In general, there remains a need for more job creation stimulated by an increased federal government deficit.

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Why no-one should vote for the Australian Labor Party

It is a public holiday in Australia today – Queen’s Birthday, a reflection of our past as a colony. Not a lot has actually changed and we still cannot shed the monarchy. Anyway, not many people reflect on the monarchy today given it is deep winter and football matches are on as part of the holiday. But in keeping with the holiday spirit, I will only write a short blog today. The topic is why no-one should vote for the Australian Labor Party although the argument is applicable to all parties like it, who formerly represented the interests of workers and who are now dominated by politicians who have embraced the neo-liberal macroeconomic myths as if they are truths and, if that wasn’t bad enough, have become active proselytizers of this destructive religion. I might write a few words about the on-going Eurozone saga too, given the extraordinary comments by leading European politicians overnight. Then I will head like thousands of others to the football!

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The rise of non-standard work undermines growth and increases inequality

One of the on-going themes that emerges from the neo-liberal commentariat is that fiscal deficits undermine the future of our children and their children because of the alleged higher implied tax burdens. The theme is without foundation given that each generation can choose its own tax structure, deficits are never paid back, and public spending can build essential long-lived infrastructure, which provides benefits that span many generations. The provision of a first-class public education system feeding into stable, skilled job structures is the best thing that a government can do for the future generations. Sadly, government policy is undermining the future generations but not in the way the neo-liberals would have us believe. One of my on-going themes is the the impact of entrenched youth unemployment, precarious work and degraded public infrastructure on the well-being and future prospects of society as neo-liberal austerity becomes the norm. This theme was reflected (if unintentionally) in a new report, release last week by the OECD – In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All. The Report brings together a number of research findings and empirical facts that we all knew about but are stark when presented in one document.

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Australian labour market – contracts again, policy settings wrong

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for April 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market has contracted again, repeating the pattern over the last 24 months or so where employment growth zig-zags around the zero line and is weak at best. Full-time employment growth was sharply negative this month. Unemployment rose as a result as did the unemployment rate, but the latter would have been higher than 6.2 per cent had not the participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points. The teenage labour market went backwards again and remains in a parlous state and requires an urgent policy problem that the Federal government refuses to recognise or deal with. In general, there remains a need for more job creation stimulated by an increased federal government deficit. Next week’s fiscal statement, widely tipped to include further cuts in net government spending, will demonstrate how incompetent and out of touch the federal government in Australia is.

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Australian labour market – holding steady in a weak state

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for March 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market was stronger than in recent months but overall remains relatively weak. There was some modest growth in employment for the second consecutive month and better full-time employment growth. Employment growth just kept with the growth in the labour force (new entrants and a slight rise in participation) which meant that the fall in unemployment was virtually zero. The unemployment rate fell from 6.15 per cent to 6.12 per cent (1,500 persons). The teenage labour market remains in a parlous state and requires an urgent policy problem that the Federal government refuses to recognise or deal with. In general, there remains a need for more job creation stimulated by an increased federal government deficit.

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Unemployment makes you sick

An interesting study published in The European Journal of Public Health recently November 2014) – Length of unemployment and health related outcomes: A life course analysis – provides fairly unambiguous evidence that the changes in labour markets under neo-liberalism towards higher entrenched unemployment rates, increased casualisation of work, the lockout of graduates and the widespread deskilling of the workforce are eroding the health outcomes of the population. While most studies of the link between unemployment and health have focused on cohorts that endure continuous long-term joblessness (unbroken spells exceeding 12 months), this study is novel because it studies whether accumulated spells of shorter-term unemployment over a person’s lifetime are detrimental to their health. The reason that is relevant is because under neo-liberalism, many individuals are forced to eke out an existence in low paid jobs interspersed with spells of unemployment. The evidence in the former case (continuous) long-term unemployment is clear – unemployment makes the person sick and they get sicker the longer they are unemployment (both physically and mentally). The new study shows that long-term unemployment generated over a person’s life through a series of accumulated spells of shorter-term unemployment also is bad for public health and well-being. It means that the emphasis on austerity which causes cyclical effects to be worse (entrenched mass unemployment) is bad but also the main structural bias in growth periods towards casualised, precarious work is also bad for our health.

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Australian labour market – weakness continues

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for February 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market remains weak. While employment growth was modest the unemployment rate only fell by 0.1 percentage points as a result of a declining participation rate. Employment growth remains well below the underlying population growth with the result being an upward bias in the unemployment rate. The falling participation rate reflects a rising hidden unemployment rate as workers have given up looking for work. The broad ABS labour underutilisation rate – the sum of unemployment and underemployment – will now be heading towards 16 per cent (it is published in next month’s release). While the Australian Treasurer might deny that the teenage labour market is in crisis, the data tells a different story.The teenage labour market is in a parlous state and requires an urgent policy problem that the Federal government refuses to recognise or deal with. They are so obsessed with cutting fiscal deficits and shoring up the position of the Prime Minister and Treasurer that they cannot see the future damage they are causing as a result of the appalling state of the youth labour market and the weak labour market in general.

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