Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for December 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show a labour market in retreat. Total employment growth was a negative (barely) and labour force participation fell marginally. While total unemployment declined, it was only due to the fact that the labour force shrank by more than employment contracted, which means that actual unemployment was substituted for hidden unemployment. The data continues to strain credibility with some quite bizarre monthly shifts. The cautious position is to look at the trend over the last several months and that suggests that the labour market has improved marginally. However, the teenage labour market remains very weak with no discernible upwards trend revealing itself yet. If the forecasted decline in private investment occurs over the next 12 months, then this modest improvement in the labour market over the last six months will not persist.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for November 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics once again brings into question the validity of drawing assessments about the state of the labour market on the basis of monthly changes in the data. Today’s release shows that employment increased by 71,400 (0.6 per cent) on the back of a similar substantial increase last month. The estimates strain credibility although they are not necessarily at odds with what other data is suggesting. The direction is probably correct – that is, the labour market has improved (the Employment-Population ratio reliably indicates that). The ABS estimated that despite the dramatic increase in employment, unemployment fell by only 2,800 as a result of a 0.3 percentage points surge in the participation rate (again stretching credibility). Perhaps a signal on how volatile the data is, the ABS estimated the teenage participation rate rose by 0.7 percentage points on theh back of a estimated 0.8 point rise in October – again rather fanciful. The cautious position is to look at the trend over the last several months and that suggests that the labour market has improved. However, the teenage labour market remains very week with no discernible upwards trend revealing itself yet. If the forecasted decline in private investment occurs over the next 12 months, then this improvement in the labour market data will not persist.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for October 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics once again brings into question the validity of drawing assessments about the state of the labour market on the basis of monthly changes in the data. Today’s release shows that employment increased by 58,600 (0.5 per cent) which is the largest monthly rise since March 2012 – and quite unbelievable really. The ABS estimated that unemployment fell by 33,400 to 739,500 and the unemployment rate dropped 0.3 percentage points to 5.9 per cent. Perhaps a signal on how volatile the data is, the ABS estimated the teenage participation rate rose by 0.8 percentage points, again rather fanciful. The cautious position is to look at the trend over the last several months and that suggests that the labour market has improved a little (Employment to Population ratio has been steadily rising). However, the teenage labour market remains very week with no discernible upwards trend revealing itself yet. If the forecast ed decline in private investment occurs over the next 12 months, then this slight improvement in the labour market data will be just a little blip in an unfolding nasty story.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for September 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market went backwards this month after stalling last month. Employment growth was negative (drop of 5,100 thousand) and the participation rate fell by 0.2 points. The net result was that the labour force fell faster than employment and so unemployment fell by 8,100 thousand. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.2 per cent. This is one of those times when falling unemployment is not a good signal. The unemployment rate would have risen to 6.3 per cent had not the participation declined. The teenage labour market went backwards again in September and their situation remains parlous. We are still waiting to see how much damage the the forecasted decline in private investment will bring. But with a weakening labour market and the Federal government intent on cutting its net spending over the next 12 months, the outlook looks rather depressing.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for August 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market stalled this month with fairly weak employment growth, a falling participation rate, and flat hours worked. Unemployment decreased as did the unemployment rate but it that was all due to the decline in the participation rate – that is, unemployment was replaced by hidden unemployment as a result of the weak employment growth. The teenage labour market went backwards in August and their situation remains parlous. In a sense, this is the calm before the storm as private investment is forecast to decline rather sharply in the coming year and the government is intent on cutting its net spending. Either outcome will see the labour market retreat rather quickly.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for July 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market improved this month with both positive employment growth and rising participation. Unemployment increased as did the unemployment rate because of the surge in participation. Teenagers gained some traction in employment growth this month but their situation remains parlous. As explained below, this month’s estimates should be heavily discounted given the population estimates the ABS use to scale its sample data are clearly overly optimistic. The data tells me that the economy is not going backwards and may be on the slight improve over the last few months. But with the forecasts for rather dire investment cuts by firms it is clearly too early to call an end to the very poor performances revealed over the last 36 months or so.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for June 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market marked time this month with employment growth positive but weak and unemployment edging up slightly as a consequence. The data continues the repeating pattern over the last 24 months or so where employment growth zig-zags around the zero line and is weak at best. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 6 per cent, which was where we were a year ago. Underemployment remains high. Teenagers gained some full-time work but lost a near equivalent number of part-time jobs (probably a good net outcome). In general, the teenage labour market remains in a parlous state and requires an urgent policy intervention. While the press is claiming the latest data is a were “positive”, we can only conclude that if mediocrity has become our benchmark. Far from showing “the economy is in reasonable shape”, the data continues to confirm that the economy is incapable of generating sufficient employment growth to dent the huge unemployment pool, much less start reducing underemployment.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for May 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market was stronger than last month, when it contracted. The data continues the repeating pattern over the last 24 months or so where employment growth zig-zags around the zero line and is weak at best. Overall employment growth was relatively strong, although most of the gains were in part-time work. There was minimal shift in working hours. The unemployment rate fell to 6 per cent, which was where we were a year ago. Underemployment was unchanged over the last three months. Teenagers did not participate in the growth and that segment of the labour market remains in a parlous state and requires an urgent policy intervention. In general, there remains a need for more job creation stimulated by an increased federal government deficit.