Is Keynesianism dead? Far from it – it provides the life support for a crisis-ridden capitalism

On September 28, 1976, then British PM gave an historic speech at the Annual Labour Party Conference held in Blackpool. The speech was written by his son-in-law, one Peter Jay, who himself was mired in scandals throughout his career. For example, the nepotism allegations after he was appointed British Ambassador to the US, his wife’s extra-marital affair with Carl Bernstein, his own affair with the family nanny at the embassy and the resulting paternity lawsuit that Jay initially denied but was found to be the father, not to mention his demeaning relationship with Robert Maxwell. A good candidate for a speech write. In that speech, Callaghan more or less claimed that the Keynesian consensus up to that point (from the Great Depression) was dead and that the fiscal tools that had delivered prosperity in the post WW2 period were no longer effective and should fiscal deficits should be abandoned. How exactly when the non-government sector as a whole desired to spend less than they earned overall was not specified because the lie that cutting government spending was a growth tool dominated. This narratives that Callaghan introduced have been repeated many times since that time when conservative commentators and economists seek attention. The latest appeared in the Financial Times (September 5, 2026) in the form of an article by former Bank of England board member Andy Haldane – Is Keynesianism dead?. He says yes, I say no!

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Imagine if the British government wrote off its holdings of its own debt

Last week, I considered recent research published by the BIS – Bank of International Settlements pushing the ‘growth friendly austerity’ myth – which was a classic example of how the sense of urgency and crisis is engendered by constructing the narrative in such a restricted manner that real world options are excluded which contradict the mission. If we assume that key features of any system are unable to be activated, then it is easy to speculate that the system will fail. This communication technique abounds in the financial and economic commentariat and leaves listeners and readers with a sense of anxiety and distort the political process. The commentaries that typify this approach all invoke a sense of urgency – ‘act now or else’ – and like to quote large dollar (pound, yen etc) sums because the commentator knows that our eyes glaze over with numbers that are beyond our own experience. Further, when the article parades as an Op Ed, the writer regularly just rehearses some press release or perhaps, less formal statement, that some organisation like the IMF has made. The other part of the scam is that these organisations are elevated into the sphere of sources that are to be believed without question. Two recent examples are the recent articles appearing in the UK Guardian – Burnham’s funding gap: what state are UK finances in for the PM-in-waiting? (published July 3, 2026) – and – Act soon to change ‘unsustainable’ direction of UK debt, OBR warns (published July 7, 2026).

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Apparently the UK government is about to do the impossible – run out of sterling

Go back to the headlines in 2010 – – “Countries with debt over 90 percent of GDP enter a danger zone”. The 90 per cent threshold entered the media coverage as a result of a paper released by Harvard economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart – Growth in a Time of Debt. That paper talked about “debt intolerance limits” arising from “sharply rising interest rates” – and then “painful fiscal adjustments” and “outright default”. It also talked about the “obvious connection” between inflation and high public debt ratios – which had me laughing at the time because no-one has really shown that to be a robust relationship at all. Everyone started quoting the paper, even though at the time it had obvious flaws. The predictions failed to materialise as did all the previous predictions that economists like them had failed. But the press keeps giving their views a public platform because the lurid predictions attract audiences. It is a pity because lame politicians seem to regard the predictions as being based in fact and change policies for the worse. Anyway, Rogoff is back in town predicting that the British government will run out of sterling and be forced to bring in the IMF to address the fiscal crisis. That is what the headlines say. But if you delve more deeply, his position is a little different and exposes the chicanery of mainstream economics which holds itself out as a consistent body of theory but regularly uses that pretence to bully governments into political shifts that help the elites and damage the rest of us.

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New Green-linked report in Britain avoids the critical issue

I read a new Report this morning – Waste Not – that was published by a new unit in Britain called Verdant, which seems to have links to the England and Wales Green Party. The work is interesting and raises several issues that bear on how government fiscal policy should be assessed. The issues I have with the Report were not canvassed by the author to its detriment. It relates to the impact of government spending and the employment effects of cutting expenditure, regardless of whether we classify that expenditure as ‘waste’ or not.

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A successful degrowth strategy will require a massive redistribution of income and wealth towards the poorest

It is true that all big cities have areas of poverty that is visible from the streets. But I am always a bit shocked when I travel to London, where I am currently working, because the inequality is very obvious. As I work more on the degrowth, decolonisation project that I am currently involved in, one thing becomes paramount. An overwhelming proportion of the total fossil fuel energy usage is due to the consumption of the wealthiest households. And to dramatically reduce our ecological footprint will require dramatically reducing the capacity of the top end of the income and wealth distributions to consume energy. However, all the trends are moving against that requirement. Here are some notes on that topic.

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Those who invoke the ‘Truss Moment’ should look at what is happening in Japan

In the annals of ruses used to provoke fear in the voting public about government deficits, central bank currency issuance, and fiscal activism, the experience of Germany in the 1920s was a long-standing favourite, that could be wheeled out on demand and have immediate effect. Wheelbarrows full of money being pushed to the local bakery to buy the daily bread, etc. It was a very effective vehicle for advancing the interests of the ruling class because it created a political brake on government action to reduce poverty and maintain full employment. More recently, Zimbabwe became the vehicle. It was equally effective even though it, like the Weimar ruse, was largely based on fiction. Even more recently, we have a new ‘ruse on the block’, the so-called ‘Truss Moment’, which is particularly effective in the UK. The current Labour government is petrified to do anything that might resemble a Labour government because they have a deep-seated paranoid ideation that the ‘City’ is out to get them, and the ‘Truss Moment’ is used as the summary event that apparently justify that delusion. They might have looked to the East, to Japan, to see why the ‘Truss Moment’ was about something quite different to the popular narrative that accompanies the mention of the ill-fated few months in British politics.

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British Labour’s obsession with fiscal rules is untenable and ignores the reality of the situation

I have been a consistent critic of the way in which the British Labour Party, both in opposition and in government, is obsessed with rigid fiscal rules, thinking it is the only way that it can demonstrate fiscal credibility (whatever that is in their minds). The result is that they get cornered into situations that either lead them to make poor decisions which lose them votes and give the likes of Nigel Farage more fuel for his crusade or they are forced to admit they cannot achieve the (unachievable) fiscal rules. Either way it is a clusterf*)@. In the last week or so, we have witnessed the ludicrous situation of the British Office of Budget Responsibility failing to protect its own file systems and leaking information before the Chancellor presented her official fiscal statement. The leaked information just happened to contradict the messaging of the Chancellor which was a bit inconvenient. But the important issue that all this raises is not whether OBR can run a secure WordPress site (evidently it cannot), but that the information it generates is so inaccurate and systematically biased that it cannot realistically be used as the basis for assessing fiscal policy. Which means that the obsession with the fiscal rules leads to policy changes that damage things that matter – such as employment and services – but those policy changes are based on information (OBR forecasts) that subsequent revelations tell us would not justify those policy shifts. As I said – clusterf8x@.

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What does it mean for a nation to become bankrupt?

The reason I ask that question is because I read in the UK Guardian article yesterday (published August 11, 2025) – As dark financial clouds gather, Labour has to heed its past: when it chooses austerity, it loses elections – that “Britain is in danger of going bankrupt. It may happen slowly or quickly, but since Labour took office this possibility has increasingly been promoted and discussed in the press, by opposition parties and in the City of London”. And when the author of that article poses his own question: “What exact form will this bankruptcy take?” – he offers the rather tepid response that it will happen because the government is “spending too much, generally on people who have little”, which offers nothing by way of clarification or definitiveness. So it is useful to interrogate the notion of a nation going broke. Can it happen? Can Britain become insolvent?

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The British government’s obsession with the fiscal rules is driving the economy towards recession

The UK economy is heading into a malaise. The latest news – UK construction activity in July falls at steepest rate since Covid (August 6, 2025) – and – UK services sector has biggest fall in orders for nearly three years (August 5, 2025) – confirms that there is a slowdown underway. That was prefaced by rising unemployment and falling overall GDP growth in previous data releases. However, when we examine statements coming from the Labour government, the Prime Minister is hinting that there might be tax rises in the Autumn Statement because a neoliberal oriented ‘think tank’ has told it that there is a £40 billion gap in the fiscal outcomes, which will breach the self-imposed limits specified in their fiscal rules. So the Government is contemplating more austerity and contractionary policy at a time when private spending is subdued and the economy is going backwards. It just demonstrates how the obsession with these fiscal rules grossly distorts fiscal decision making and focuses government eyes on all the wrong things. I am still amazed when I think how stupid we all have become for thinking that any of the stuff is acceptable.

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Britain’s Leeds Reforms – jumping the shark comes to mind

Last week (July 15, 2025), the British Chancellor delivered the – Rachel Reeves Mansion House 2025 speech – which is an annual event where the Chancellor outlines the state of the economy and what the government is doing. Mansion House, London – is the official residence of London’s Lord Mayor and is located in the heart of the City (financial district). If you want to see an echo chamber in action then this is one place where you will find one. All the self-important characters from the financial markets being duchessed by a sycophantic chancellor all in the one place. Perfection. Reeves was there to tell the ‘markets’ what they had longed for over the last 15 years – that the so-called – Leeds Reforms – would see the regulatory and supervisory framework that was erected after the GFC largely abandoned and that they could get back to relatively unfettered ‘greed is good’ operations again. Perfection. Apparently, the Chancellor has been convinced by the speculators that they hold the interests of the British working class at the centre of their hearts and that they will do everything in their power to advance those interests through their own operations. And, ladies and gentlemen – pigs might fly.

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