There is no inflationary outbreak evident – the economy is slowing
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the Consumer Price Index, Australia data for the December 2010 quarter today and it showed that inflation continues to fall. The ABC News reported that – CPI figure comes in below expectations. Who’s expectations you might ask? Yes, the bank economists and other main-streamers who have a one track obsession that whenever there is some sign of growth there must be inflation. Wrong again. It was clear that inflation is moderating notwithstanding the spikes that will come in the next months as a result of the flood disasters. But when will the inflation-obsessives give up on the idea that the budget deficits cause inflation. The reality is that the Australian economy is slowing down and there is still a significant amount of spare capacity available for real output expansion should aggregate demand rise. Some sectors are growing strongly (mining) but that unlikely to create significant cost pressures elsewhere in the economy given the amount of labour slack. Last month I gave the bank economists a tip. Consult the ideological chart and then predict the opposite. They would have predicted the data movements more accurately if they had have taken my advice. There is no inflationary outbreak evident – the economy is slowing.