Some appalled economists – just missing the boat

In January 2011, 44 per cent of Spanish working people below the age of 25 were unemployed. A year later Eurostat report (in its March 1, 2012 publication) – Euro Indicators – that the rate has climbed to 49.9. For the overall labour force in Spain, the unemployment rate rose from 21.7 per cent to 23.3 per cent over the same period. That is Great Depression-type magnitudes. At the other end of the unemployment spectrum, currently, is The Netherlands. Their overall unemployment rate has risen from 4.3 per cent in January 2011 to 5 per cent in January 2012. Notwithstanding the massive underemployment in The Netherlands (almost 50 per cent of the working age population work part-time – average is less than 20 per cent for EU) and the large proportion of workers hidden from unemployment by disability support pensions – this is a low unemployment rate. And therein lies the rub. The Dutch Centraal Planning Bureau released its latest – Short-term forecast yesterday (March 1, 2012) which showed that over the next 4 years it will violate the current Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and face fines under the Excessive Deficit Procedure. And to put a finer point on this – the Dutch government has been one of the more rabid proponents of fiscal austerity and one of the first to heel-click in line to sign Germany’s … sorry the EU’s fiscal compact. All of that should tell you that the current leadership in Europe has no viable solution to its crisis. Some French economists have come up with a solution. This blog considers their work and concludes they are on the right track but haven’t penetrated all the neo-liberal myths that they seek to highlight.

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Saturday quiz – February 11, 2012 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Saturday quiz – February 4, 2012 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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IMF – the height of hypocrisy but still wrong as usual

When I read the latest news from the IMF early this morning I sent out a tweet saying that it was the height of hypocrisy for the IMF now to be trying to reclaim the high ground in the current economic debate by lecturing nations about the dangers of fiscal austerity. The IMF will always be part of the problem rather than the solution. They are consistently the architects of misinformation and bully national governments on the basis of that misinformation only to come back 3 months later and say “gee whiz”, look how bad things become. Currently the IMF is pleading for more funds. If I was a national government contributing to this bullying, incompetent organisation I would immediately cancel the cheque and, instead, spend the money pursuing domestic growth for the benefit of the citizens is that rely on my decisions. The current position of the IMF represents the height of hypocrisy. Further their forecasts are significantly error prone as usual. Wrong models will generally produce terrible forecasts that have to be continually revised. In the case of the IMF, these errors are also systematically biased by the ideological nature of their approach to macroeconomics.

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Saturday quiz – January 21, 2012 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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MMT is biased towards anti-crony

There has been a couple of interesting articles written by John Carney who is a Senior Editor at CNBC.com on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) – starting with Monetary Theory, Crony Capitalism and the Tea Party (December 22, 2011) and followed up with Modern Monetary Theory and Austrian Economics (December 27, 2011). I am happy that our work is penetrating in to the mainstream business and economics commentary space. It is good that John Carney has spent some time coming to terms with MMT and its departure from the failed mainstream macroeconomics. But some problems remain with his analysis. The issues he raises relate to political matters rather than the economics of MMT. In that context, MMT is neither anti- or pro-crony. But if you delve deeper and really understand the MMT macroeconomic framework then you realise that MMT is biased toward anti-crony.

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Saturday quiz – December 24, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s special Santa-edition of the quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Saturday Quiz – December 3, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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A journey back in time

A bit of a different blog today. I was rummaging through some boxes of papers today in search of some “non-digitised” notes which I wanted to consult as part of the development of our macroeconomic textbook, which Randy Wray and I hope to get out sometime next year. I came across some old drafts of papers I wrote in the early 1990s which had handwritten annotations etc. The old way of doing things. I thought it was interesting to compare the final published version of one such paper with the unpublished draft. That is what this blog is about – looking back to an article I wrote in 1993 (“Demystifying the Deficit”). A little journey back in time – but with alarming overlaps with what is going on today.

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Saturday Quiz – November 19, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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You do not increase spending by cutting it

Last weekend, on the eve of the G-20 meeting in Paris over the weekend, the Australian Treasurer was talking tough and giving ultimatums to our Northern friends – telling them that the “time for half measures is over. The time for action is here. So people will be looking for a comprehensive plan on October 23”. Of-course, in the Communiqué of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the G20 from the Paris meeting you don’t get any sense of urgency. Not once do they mention the word “unemployment”. The problem is that the world leaders remain in denial and still want us to believe that you can have “growth-friendly” cuts in spending. To increase spending you do not cut it.

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Saturday Quiz – October 8, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Some further thoughts on the OWS movement

I have been following the Occupy Wall Street developments with interest because ultimately I consider the only reasonable way entrenched elites become unseated is if there is mass action by citizens. I do not think military coups are a very sound way to lay the groundwork for grassroots democracy. I also like the idea of a “leaderless resistance movement with people of many colors, genders and political persuasions” although politics doesn’t take long to creep in and steer movements like these in particular ways. In the last day or so I have become aware that there is some notion among the “occupiers” that the evil they are opposing is fiat currency rather than corporate power particularly that of the financial monoliths. While power does lie in the monetary system the only way of ensuring that this power is democratised is if the currency-issuing entity is freely elected and accountable to us. That is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the advancement of economic development. My input to the OWS movement is by understanding Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) we can appreciate how governments are necessary for the development process and that we have to concentrate on making the fiat currency system work for us and prevent it from being hi-jacked by the so-called 1 per cent.

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What is Wall Street for?

Last night, I was listening to the ABC Current Affairs program PM and they were running a segment – ‘Occupy Wall Street’ protest growing and they were interviewing American journalist Jeff Madrick. At one point in the interview he said: “I hope the American establishment has the courage to ask one fundamental question; what is Wall Street for? What are they supposed to do?” The answer to those questions are in order: not much that is worth anything; and not what it was created to do.

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The coalition of the willing

When the Liberal Democrats went into coalition with the British Tories I was surprised how readily and brazenly their leadership was prepared to compromise the underlying principles of the party for power. While the Party Constitution claims they stand for – “a fair, free and open society” balancing “the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community, and in which no-one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity” and “that the role of the state is to enable all citizens to attain these ideals, to contribute fully to their communities and to take part in the decisions which affect their lives” it is clear that they have become partners in a policy regime that is the anathema of those ideals. By entering the coalition they have allowed a pernicious regime to be inflicted on the British people – one which is driving unemployment up and incomes down. The Liberal Democrats are having their Annual Conference this weekend in Birmingham and it is clear if the utterances of some of their members are anything to go by that the Party is struggling with their identity. The Deputy Leader for example said (September 17, 2011) that the job of the Liberal Democrats was “to rein in the ruthless Tories”. The reality is that it is the government that is ruthless and the Liberal Democrats are part of that government and give it the air it needs. I was unfortunate to listen to a BBC interview today with Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg and it left me with the impression that there is little to distinguish the coalition partners on the main economic issues. Both parties are infested with neo-liberalism and both fail to understand basic macroeconomics – that spending creates income.

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Saturday Quiz – September 10, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Saturday Quiz – August 27, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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The impossible equation

Earlier this year I reported on what a wonderful Xmas all the Ricardian agents (consumers and firms) had enjoyed in the UK as a result of the government austerity program. Please read my blog – Ricardians in UK have a wonderful Xmas. It seems those “agents” just cannot get enough of it. Now, more than 15 months into the austerity program and with the cuts about to really bite, the British economy continues to go backwards. Our real world laboratory is providing priceless data upon which we can assess basic propositions that mainstream macroeconomics provides and which Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) contests. A nation cannot have a fiscal contraction expansion when all other spending is flat or going backwards. Britain is up against an impossible equation.

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Saturday Quiz – July 23, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Saturday Quiz – July 9, 2011 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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