Textbooks get out of date and need revision in the light of recent data or events. Some textbooks are exposed as being just plain wrong and should be re-written completely. Obviously authors in the latter category are reluctant to admit that their textbook is not an adequate description of the way – for example, the economy works – and so they not only resist updating their offering but they also defend it against all the evidence. Anyway, after reading Paul Krugman’s most recent attempt to come to grips with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) I concluded that it was way past the date that he should be rewriting his macroeconomics textbook. Otherwise he is misleading the students who are forced to use it in their studies. So Paul, its time to update your textbook.

I haven’t much time today. I note that the British Chancellor has made an emergency speech to the House of Commons last night (August 11, 2011) – Statement on the global economy. He claimed that the fiscal austerity had made the UK a “safe haven” for investors. The reason that demand for gilts is high at present is because the bond markets know the UK has no default risk. I also noted Paul Krugman’s wrote a blog in the New York Times yesterday (August 11, 2011) – Franc Thoughts on Long-Run Fiscal Issues – where he challenges Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) directly. To challenge something you have to represent it correctly.

There has been a lot of “opinion” expressed over the last few days about the causes of the British riots. If I had a meter to assess the ideological biases given breath in the press over this issue to date it would be swinging out there in the right-wing of opinion – “cultural problem”, “lawless lazy youth fed by the welfare state”, “criminality”, “intolerable monsters” all words I have read or heard in the media recently. Anyway who has my view is labelled a “left-wing cynic” who want to “makes excuses for thugs”. Opinion is after all just that so it is always of benefit to temper it with research evidence. Anyway, the short conclusion – supported by the research evidence – is that I blame the British government for the riots.

I did some research today on the outstanding US public debt – not because I think it is particularly important but because a journalist asked me yesterday during an interview – how much of the total US Treasury Debt is held by the US government – I said off the top of my head about 42 per cent which was a quick calculation based on work I did about 12 months ago and a rapid adding up off what I remembered from the monthly reports since then with a quick division thrown in. It turns out after I have updated the databases I keep that my “guesstimate” was not misleading (as at March 2011). The journalist then said – “so lets get this straight, the US government owes itself money equivalent to 42 per cent of its total outstanding liabilities?” Answer: yes. He then responded: “to fix the debt problem why wouldn’t they just write it off?”. Answer: I don’t see a US public debt problem. But because you do, then the answer is that for the most part they could just write it off as long as their were some additional legislative changes (for example, they would have to finance the operations of the US Federal Reserve in a different manner). So who owns the US debt?

In the last few days I have read more misinformation and downright lies from financial and economic commentators in the media than I have for the last year. The decision by the irrelevant S&P to get some attention for their corporate profit-making activities by downgrading US government debt has sparked a frenzy of nonsensical “analysis” which is as ridiculous as was the S&P decision. The fact is that the S&P decision is irrelevant as long as the US government makes it so. The danger is that the Government will think there is something to be addressed and the US economy will suffer as a result. As long as the US government realises who calls the shots the S&P decision will be irrelevant.

Last night we were watching the ABC news on TV and there was a story about American airports not being able to afford to pay security staff because the federal body who pay the bills had run out of money. I have been reading regional newspapers in the US which report on things like street lights being rationed not on environmental grounds but because the local authorities are starved of funds. Police beats are being trashed as rapes rise in the darkened, unpatrolled streets. Schools are being closed. People will die this coming northern winter because the governments have cut heating subsidies to the poor. Workers who saved all their lives then became unemployed in 2008 are still unemployed and have exhausted their life savings and are staring at poverty. And all of this is because the conservatives and the dullard progressives who have fallen into line lock-step have convinced us that our governments – which issue the currency we use – have run out of money. The people who are being most damaged by the fiscal austerity are the front-line troops in the conservative army attacking governments. It doesn’t make sense at all. For all the human achievements we are really a very dull lot. Governments have all the capacity to maintain adequate levels of spending and employment growth to allow the private sector to sort out their debt issues. This is a totally confected crisis which doesn’t mean that it isn’t real nor incredibly damaging.

I was looking at yields today and you cannot help noticing that bond markets are become more attracted to government debt each day. So much for the arguments we have been hearing ad nauseum over the last few years that governments were about to feel the cold hand of the markets who would punish them by dumping their debt unless they imposed harsh austerity. The problem is that the attraction of government debt does not signify that markets are rewarding governments for their fiscal austerity efforts. In fact, it is exactly the opposite. The markets are realising that austerity is now undermining economic growth and the claims by politicians and economists that we would enjoy a “fiscal contraction expansion” if only the government got off the backs of the private sector are now being revealed as lies. The world economy is tanking. Day by day the evidence mounts. The safest place to be when the economy heads south is in cash or government bonds.