Accounting smokescreens excite the conservatives

I haven’t much time today as I have been travelling most of the day. But the news is that Japan – soon after its government announced it would increase taxes to “rein in the deficit” is now facing a dramatic slowdown as a result of the on-going crisis in Europe and the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Perfect time to increase taxes really! But today we revisit (for the nth time) the way in which conservatives get excited by the accounting smokescreens that have been overlaid onto the monetary system to obscure certain fundamental capacities of government. The excitement or should I say – hysteria – then leads to pressure being put on policy makers by the billionaires that control the media – and, invariably – leads to poor policy choices being made. So for the nth time – the US social security system cannot go broke. The “financial gaps” that are wheeled out to prove that it will become insolvent are just accounting structures that can be altered by Congress anytime they want. If the accounting systems led to the system being in jeopardy then Congress would quickly assert their intrinsic capacities.

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Fat cat bankster wants to make the unemployed even more desperate

My university office is far from clean so next week when I get back there I suspect I will find some more old insightful articles in the boxes remaining to be sorted to comment on. I haven’t much time today as I am in transit. But there are two interesting developments in Australia that are worth commenting on while the iron is hot. The first is that one of Australia’s fat cat banksters, fresh from enjoying the benefits of the federal government’s loan guarantees is now advocating cuts in the unemployment benefits to make the unemployed more desperate for work. The benefit is already well below Australia’s poverty line and there are 3.6 odd unemployed for every vacancy not to mention the 8 per cent of workers who are underemployed. The bankster thinks that by pushing them further into poverty they might up house, pack their cars and travel across the other side of the continent to work in the mining sector. Little does he know. The second piece of news was that two major mining projects have been shelved by BHP as the outlook for the sector deteriorates.

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The British government has more than demonstrated its incompetence

Today’s article from the relics (my office clear out continues) is actually two articles. One by Arthur Okun and the other by fellow US macroeconomist Gardner Ackley. Both economists are now dead but during their careers were aware of the role of government in a monetary economy. They were antagonistic to the conservative views of economists that wanted to push fiscal rules such as balanced budgets. They understood that these views not only undermined democracy but also made it impossible for governments to pursue their legitimate goals of promoting public purpose. In the current environment, if they were still alive they would be castigating those who seek to impose pro-cyclical fiscal austerity. Their insights remain relevant today. Just think about yesterday’s public finance data release in Britain. The debt reduction forecasts from the British government are in tatters because tax revenue is collapsing further and welfare spending is rising. The operation of the automatic stabilisers is signalling that the British government has more than adequately demonstrated its incompetence.

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British solution to unemployment – make them work for free

There was a story in the UK Guardian yesterday (July 29. 2012) – Million jobless may face six months’ unpaid work or have benefits stopped – that described how the failed neo-liberal British government is following the path that the conservatives followed in Australia in attempting to “manage” the unemployment that their flawed policy regime created. The Australian approach has failed dramatically and imposed considerable hardship on the most disadvantaged citizens in our midst. The same approach is unfolding in Britain and it to is already looming as a failure.

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Nothing good in sight for the UK economy despite the Olympics

The British Office of National Statistics have published two new data releases in the last week which show that the British economy is plunging further into a deepening recession. On July 20, 2012, it published the Public Sector Finances, June 2012, which showed that the deficit is increasing. Then it published the – Gross Domestic Product, Preliminary Estimate, Q2 2012 – yesterday (July 25, 2012), which showed that the British economy had contracted n real terms by a staggering 0.7 per cent in the June quarter. The one hope on the near horizon for the British economy might be the Olympic Games, which are being use to gloss over the savage recession that the British government has deliberately created. However, a closer understanding of the way in which events such as the Olympic Games impact on the host economy suggests that the majority of benefits are already in the data and the dismal future facing Britain will not be attenuated by the running and jumping (and the rest of it).

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The New Economy cannot flourish with fiscal austerity

I often get E-mails from readers – some hostile others more reasonable – telling me that I should stop arguing for more economic growth. The reasoning is relatively straightforward – the Earth is buckling under the rapacious resources demands of the capitalist system and not only is that process likely to be finite, notwithstanding substitution via technological advances, but also in the process of exhaustion the amenity declines. The argument juxtaposes ecological claims with other claims relating to the desirability of the current neo-liberal dominated system which relies, seemingly, on creating more inequality, a reduction in government oversight and allows the worst aspects of the capitalist system to run amok. However, somewhere along the way, the 99% or whatever percentage it is (I think it is substantially lower than 99) miss the boat. The current crisis is used to demonstrate that conjecture. I haven’t time to reply to all the E-mails and I try to provide “collective” replies (which should tell you something in itself) via my blog posts. So today I am addressing that issue. The message is simple – I am very sympathetic to localised, new economy-type collective ways of organising social and economic activities. I support egalitarianism and co-operative solutions rather than competitive, dog-eats-dog approaches. I don’t mind working and giving my surplus to aid those who are unable for whatever reason to achieve the same material outcomes by their own hand. I am happy with consolidation rather than growth. But despite the romantic appeal of all this – as the solution – we have to understand that there is still something called a monetary system and a currency to deal with. Localised solutions are still constrained by the sovereign state they are located in and their fortunes are determined in no small way by the way the currency-issuing government conducts its fiscal policy. There is no escape from that.

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2012 becomes 1844 or thereabouts

I had a little reminisce today and took a mental journey back to the North of England where I studied for a time. Although this time (early 1980s) was just before the digital age, I have collected bits of information about the economic and social life of workers and capitalists in early industrial England. And, of-course, there are some wonderful accounts in the wider literature of what life was like in those days. These were times when there were no unions, no job security, no income support, no safety standards, and little or no sanitation of public health regulations in the urban areas where workers were sequestered by the ruling elites. While the rich industrialists erected open spaces and promenades to surround their luxury residential facilities, the workers mostly lived in filth and died dreadful deaths. There was a reason that this way of doing business was attacked by growing worker discontent throughout England and Europe in the late 1840s and beyond. There is a reason trade unions formed. There is a reason that governments were forced by popular pressure to introduce income support and labour market regulations. People can only be put down for so long and the capitalist system is built on a very small minority seeking to repress the rights and rewards of the vast majority. Once the greed pushes the balance too far to the minority – their hegemony is threatened. We might be in 2012 but the elites are once again driving us all back to 1844 or thereabouts. They will rue the day.

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What is “good” at the macro level may well be disastrous at the micro level

I have been reading about the Great Depression lately and comparing the sort of pressures that governments were placed under during that time to cut deficits which were rising on the back of a collapse in economic activity to what is going on today. There are many interesting parallels and déjà vu experiences. That research took me into some literature on the way the governments bow to industry demands as aggregate demand collapses. In turn, that led me to the way the military-industrial complex operates. Which took me into another literature on the role of the military-industrial complex in creating wars to provide markets for their goods – the merchants of death. And so it goes. That is the nature of research – it just takes one on a journey and usually to destinations previously not imagined. But this journey also clarifies some issues that readers regularly write to me about. The relationship between Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as a macroeconomic framework and issues that issues that lie below the aggregate level – such as distributional issues. There are links clearly (for example, income distribution affects aggregate demand) but in other ways what is “good” at the macro level may well be downright disastrous at the micro level. But in dealing with the disaster at the micro level, we always have to be mindful of the way dealing with that disaster impacts on the aggregates. This is particularly important in considering issues relating to trade. The military-industrial complex is an excellent case study of these challenges. Here are some early thoughts.

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Oh what a difference a President makes!

The world’s press is once again whipping up the “Greece to exit” frenzy and wheeling out all manner of mainstream economists who are issuing the most strident warnings that Greece needs the Euro and will walk the plank if it exits. Most of this is conservative hype. The reality is that while the exit would be immediately costly – the situation is currently so dire and the outlook so negative – that these “costs” have to be weighed against the almost immediate return to growth should the nation exit and default. Apparently, the Greek political elites (the President and the two main party leaders) are proposing that the recent election, which overwhelmingly rejected the Troika-led austerity, be ignored and, instead, a government of technocrats – all of whom will play ball with the Troika, be installed to rule the nation. The machinations of the neo-liberals never cease to amaze me. Greece should take a lesson out of the Iceland book. But then they had a President who seemingly cared about national interest.

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Oh Ireland, if only you were growing

I regularly check the data for Ireland to see how she is going, given that the Irish government was the first to impose the austerity solution in early 2009 – that is, three years ago. I read yesterday that “of the countries that were in trouble, I would say Ireland looks as if it’s the best at the moment because Ireland has implemented very heavy austerity programs, but is now beginning to grow again”. That created some cognitive dissonance for me. Was I dreaming when I last looked at the Irish national accounts data? Surely, I hadn’t made a mistake when I concluded that the last two quarters of 2011 recorded negative growth as Irish exports slowed in the wake of the emerging double-dip recession in Britian? When I reviewed the data today, it seems that Ireland is still going backwards and people are becoming poorer. Claims that Ireland’s austerity approach provides a model for other nations to follow because it produces growth cannot be sustained from the data. But if only it were true … Oh Ireland, if only you were growing.

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Debunking myths

My friend Sean Carmody, sometime commentator and always obstinately objective, introduced me to this work – The Debunking Handbook – written by a physicist and psychologist. It serves to focus thoughts because it considers the pitfalls that arise in an exercise aimed at debunking myths and strategies that might be deployed to effectively achieve this aim. The authors appear to be motivated by the climate change debate but the discussion is equally effective in the context that I work within – how to convince people that mainstream macroeoconomics is largely devoid of meaningful content and predictive capacity.

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Cancer is bad but budget deficits are generally good

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released the first-quarter 2012 National Accounts data for the US last week (April 27, 2012) – see the News Release which showed that the US economy has slowed in the last three months, largely due to a decline in the government contribution. Annualised Real GDP growth was 2.2 per cent down from 3 per cent in the December 2011 quarter. The economy is now growing under trend and the signs are not good. If the politicians actually get around to imposing austerity then the US economy will join the UK in its race to the bottom with the other competitor being the Eurozone. The latest news from the Eurozone is that Spain will become the epicentre of the crisis in the coming weeks/months. Greece is yesterday’s news and the continuing deterioration of the Spanish economy – one considerably larger in importance than Greece – is focusing minds. The problem is that the reaction of the Euro elites is to inflict more austerity onto Spain which will – as night follows day – cause the situation to worsen. But still we read from leading US government officials that budget deficits are like cancer and will destroy countries “from within”. The only thing I can say about that astounding demonstration of ignorance is that I cannot think of a situation where cancer is good. But generally, budget deficits generate benefits to the nation that is enjoying them.

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Are the Euro bosses going all growth on us?

I am still in Darwin today and have limited time to write. It seems, however, that the Euro bosses have gone all growth on us. For non-English speakers – going all growth on us – is terrible slang meaning are they becoming enamoured with the idea that growth is important. Apparently, austerity is “so yesterday”, if not “last week” and the mantra is now about “growth compacts”. Forget the fiscal compact which most of the EU states have signed up for which if realised will drive their economies into the ground so harsh are the proposed rules on budgets and public debt. Now there is a growth compact proposal – which Mario has suggested Europe follows. Angie is right in behind him – has Madame Austerity – has gone all growth on us too?. It has been a bad week for the Troika (IMF, ECB, EU) – what with the UK now officially in a double-dip due to the deliberate strategy of its government (emulating the EMU) and across the Channel, the impending success of François Hollande is now becoming obvious. Merkoz will now have to morph into Mollande. And while on “olland”, the Dutch government also collapsed as a direct result of the backlash over the fiscal austerity. Apparently, the likely new French president is not particularly keen to join the fiscal austerity conga line although all his public statements to date would suggest he is committed to the SGP principles. So what is this all about? Are the Euro bosses going “all growth on us”? Answer: there will be no “growth compact” other than in the title of some EU Summit paper. The growth spin is mounting but the EU elites remain firmly wedded to doing everything they can to undermine growth.

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The left – entranced by the fiscal austerity mantra sold to them by the conservatives

There is increasing evidence that the manic obsession with fiscal austerity instead of employment-generating growth is not only further de-stabilising the EU economy and foreshadowed the next chapter in the crisis but is also undermining the political accords that were the rationale in the first place for political and economic “integration”. The news from France yesterday that Marine Le Pen received close to 20 per cent of the first-round vote in the Presidential election and the impending collapse of the Dutch coalition government as Geert Wilders torpedoed the fiscal austerity negotiations – outrightly refusing to agree to the cuts, tells me that the political scene is polarising and extreme right candidates are coming to the fore. The mainstream left parties stand indicted for embracing the neo-liberal economic myths and then trying to sell a softer vision for Europe. The reality is that Europe will only be able to implement and sustain progressive social agendas if the neo-liberal malaise is abandoned. That will mean that nations abandon the Euro and use fiscal policy to promote employment growth. However, the various political outcomes that we are witnessing in Europe indicate that we can expect no leadership from the mainstream left on any of these issues. They are entranced by the fiscal austerity mantra sold to them by the conservatives. Which gives credibility for the incredulous demands of Le Pen and Wilders!

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Australian PM should take up frisbee

The ABC News today reported that – Newcastle hosts frisbee championships – which means the national frisbee championships will be in my town this week and I will be around. Apparently the championships involve “flinging a frisbee between players on a pitch similar to a football or soccer field” and then “catching the disc in the endzone”. I suggest the Australian Prime Minister take up the sport. It seems an innocuous pastime and she surely couldn’t be any less skilled at it than she is at managing the economy. Her speech yesterday in Perth certainly established she has no understanding of macroeconomics or if she does, then she is deliberately misleading us. Her Finance Minister was also fully engaged in the misinformation exercise about the state of the budget. But then she is in solid company. The German Bundesbank has made public statements telling nations crippled by self-imposed fiscal austerity to forget about growth and balance their budgets. The ugly German stereotype is unfortunately reinforced by these sort of public interventions. And, finally, we have the genius who yesterday was advocating widespread cuts in welfare entitlements today out in the Op Ed pages suggesting that countries who exert their sovereign rights over multinationals are committing suicide despite the particular country in focus having real GDP growth rates that most other nations envy. Its all in a day of neo-liberal madness.

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The Academic Spring

The term Arab Spring is now entrenched in the lexicon although what it actually refers to – liberty or more oppression – is now a question in its own right. There is another Spring occurring – smaller, more obscure perhaps, but with significant potential to change the way academic research is disseminated and the way funding agencies treat universities. In the case of the economics discipline it offers significant scope to break down some of the barriers that allow the mainstream economics paradigm to retain dominance despite it being largely bereft of empirical support. I am talking about the Academic Spring, which is a grass roots revolt that is gathering pace. You can find out how to join this revolt at the end of the blog.

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Some appalled economists – just missing the boat

In January 2011, 44 per cent of Spanish working people below the age of 25 were unemployed. A year later Eurostat report (in its March 1, 2012 publication) – Euro Indicators – that the rate has climbed to 49.9. For the overall labour force in Spain, the unemployment rate rose from 21.7 per cent to 23.3 per cent over the same period. That is Great Depression-type magnitudes. At the other end of the unemployment spectrum, currently, is The Netherlands. Their overall unemployment rate has risen from 4.3 per cent in January 2011 to 5 per cent in January 2012. Notwithstanding the massive underemployment in The Netherlands (almost 50 per cent of the working age population work part-time – average is less than 20 per cent for EU) and the large proportion of workers hidden from unemployment by disability support pensions – this is a low unemployment rate. And therein lies the rub. The Dutch Centraal Planning Bureau released its latest – Short-term forecast yesterday (March 1, 2012) which showed that over the next 4 years it will violate the current Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and face fines under the Excessive Deficit Procedure. And to put a finer point on this – the Dutch government has been one of the more rabid proponents of fiscal austerity and one of the first to heel-click in line to sign Germany’s … sorry the EU’s fiscal compact. All of that should tell you that the current leadership in Europe has no viable solution to its crisis. Some French economists have come up with a solution. This blog considers their work and concludes they are on the right track but haven’t penetrated all the neo-liberal myths that they seek to highlight.

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Age discrimination against our teenagers should end

I haven’t much time to write today – I’m off to Sydney later where I will be a speaker at the following event – Open Forum: Young and old-age discrimination and the economy. I will be sharing the podium was the Age Discrimination Commissioner of the Australian Human Rights Commission, a Federal government agency. The topic is how can Australian businesses and government make better use of our youth and senior citizens. As regular readers will know I regularly try to push the parlous state of the teenage labour market into the policy arena, with varying degrees of success. But today’s event is high-profile and provides a good platform for advancing these issues. This blog covers some of the issues that I will raise.

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Our pathological meanness to the unemployed is just bad economics

A lot of attention is being focused on the Eurozone at the moment given the scale of the economic and social crisis that is unfolding there. It is clear that the unemployed and other pension recipients are being made to pay very significant costs for the policy folly imposed upon them by the Euro political leadership. However, the mean-spirited treatment of the disadvantaged is not confined to Europe. In the US, for example, the Congress is soon to debate and vote on a serious reduction in income support for the already beleaguered unemployed. There is a tendency to think about this from the perspective of a commitment to social democracy as being immoral, iniquitous, and a violation of the human rights of the disadvantaged. While I have great sympathy with all of those emphases, there is an easier attack that can be mounted on cutting unemployment benefits in the US or elsewhere. Such a strategy only serves to further undermine the spending capacity of the private sector at a time when the principal problem is a deficiency of aggregate spending. A simple understanding of macroeconomics leads to the conclusion that our pathological meanness to the unemployed is just bad economics.

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The German model is not workable for the Eurozone

I had an interesting meeting in Melbourne yesterday and the topic of the discussion, among other things, was the propensity of the current economic malaise in Europe to invoke associations with its historical past – in particular, the rise of the ugly German. In my blog earlier this week (January 30, 2012) – Greece to leave the Eurozone and become a German colony – one might have been tempted to conclude that I was invoking memories of the Germany’s annexation of Austria (the Anschluss). I even used the word Teutonic – a rather old-fashioned term for Germanic peoples (broadly) – in the phrase “My how audacious our Teutonic friends have become!”. This was in a discussion about the leaked German document which urged the EU Summit on Monday to effectively put Greece into receivership. But in fact, what I have been at pains to bring to the public debate is not an urging that we construct the current nasty statements from German politicians and its press about lazy Greeks etc in terms of these historical enmities but rather see them for what they really are – deeply flawed macroeconomic reasoning. A thorough understanding of macroeconomics would lead to the conclusion that the German model is not workable for the Eurozone. It will not help Germany nor anyone else. It is a deeply flawed economic doctrine that reflects the same neo-liberal ideology that led to the the original design of the European Monetary Union. Whether the “ugly German” is also implicated is another question altogether.

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