Locked-in to a neo-liberal mindset

The Governor of the RBA appeared before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics yesterday (December 18, 2013). He told the Committee that the economic growth that we experienced leading up to the crisis in 2008 was unlikely to be repeated but his assessment was largely ideological in nature – in the sense that he implicitly eschewed a fundamental re-appraisal of the policy structures in the economy and the way in which national income is distributed. He thus rejected (tacitly) a return to fiscal activism claiming the public “debt dynamic” militated against that. He admitted the limits of monetary policy as an expansionary force. And he implicitly ignored the fact that the on-going failure of real wages to keep track of productivity growth meant that if household consumption expenditure was to grow it would see a return to increasing private debt to unsustainable levels, as occurred in the decade leading up to the crisis. He acknowledged that households were much more cautious now given the heavy debt levels they were carrying but didn’t acknowledge that this meant that the fiscal surpluses of that era were also unsustainable and that deficits were needed to offset the drain from the external deficits and the cautiousness of the private domestic sector. The journalists thus published all the wrong headlines and stories and the public is none the wiser. We remain locked into a neo-liberal option set that will deliver sub-trend growth and rising unemployment. The Governor even had the audacity to say that the unemployment rate (at 5.8 per cent) was low by historical standards, which in itself is false (depending on where history starts) and ignores the fact that our broad labour wastage exceeds 15 per cent of the willing labour force at present.

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Single banking union doomed to fail

I have been travelling today a lot and so haven’t had much time to write. I have been reading early (1970s and 1980s) documents in recent days relating to the debate that preceded the establishment of the Eurozone. I have read them before, at the time they were released in many cases, but they provide a salutary reminder of how the political and economic reality in Europe diverged with catastrophic consequences for millions of people that live there. There was ample analysis and supporting evidence in the late 1970s to tell us that the creation of a common monetary union in the form that was eventually agreed in the 1990s would fail. But even now, with that failure for all to see, the same dynamics that predicate against any reforms that might create a strong federal fiscal capacity, are present in the discussions surrounding the creation of a Single Supervisory Mechanism to regulate banks and protect their depositors. The Germans, exhibiting all their irrational paranoia about inflation, are using their political weight to influence the design of the banking policy and the likely outcomes are looking decidedly deficient. They are doomed to fail if subjected to a stern test.

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We do not reap the seeds we sow – someone else sowed them long ago!

In 1944, Swedish economist Gunnar Myrdal published his famous 1,500 page work – An American Dilemma: The Negro Problem and Modern Democracy, which documented the conflict in American society driven by what he called the “American Creed”, which is about the “ideals of equality and liberty” and the obvious “moral lag in the development of the nation”, which at the time was referred to as “the Negro problem”. More recently, a book by American academic Nancy DiTomaso – The American Non-Dilemma – challenges the earlier notion and argues that whites in America are able to exploit racial inequality without doing “bad things” to blacks. Both works are interesting, but the more recent work fits with my current research because it introduces a new conflict, albeit unwittingly, that centres on whether you reap the seeds you sow.

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Eurozone – what do they propose as an encore?

During the late 1980s and into the 90s when the Monetarists (mostly holed up in Britain) were boasting that the widespread privatisation and labour market deregulation strategies they had instigated were containing inflation and setting up their economies for sustained growth with reductions in unemployment my response was “what do they do they do for an encore”. It was obvious that if you scorched domestic demand and pushed up unemployment that the inflation rate would drop and the reduced imports would flatter the external balance. The question then was – what do you do next? Once growth returns in domestic demand rises on the back of increased income growth, imports start catching up and workers start demanding wage rises to make up for lost real income during the deflation and you end up with nothing much being achieved except for a extended period of lost real income, and rising inequality given the lower income groups carry the burden of the recession. The conservatives became slightly more astute in more recent years arguing that the recession provided the opportunity for nations to undergo radical restructuring so that growth could be driven by exports as a result of increased competitiveness. That’s the European model at the moment. Is it working? The IMF doesn’t think so.

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Poverty rates rise in the UK as low income households bear austerity burden

Over the weekend, I was reading the new report from the British Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission – State of the Nation 2013: social mobility and child poverty in Great Britain – which has just been presented to the British Parliament (October, 2013). The conclusions from the Report are not good. They find that the “falls in poverty seen over the last 15 years may be be reversing” and that “(a)bsolute poverty is rising”. The UK will likely miss its “2020 target to end child poverty”. The other shocking statistic is that poverty rates among those who work are rising and “(t)wo in three poor children are now in families where someone works”. There are now “5 million adults and children in working poor households” in Britain. This puts the skiver/bludger/welfare criminal narrative that the neo-liberals in Britain have been running into a different light. It cannot be said that workers are skivers – they get up in the morning (or sometime) and sacrifice the best part of their lives working for some capitalist or another. They are increasingly getting paid such that they cannot live above the poverty line. That is a failed state if ever there was one.

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UK workfare plans just show how mean-spirited and ignorant we are

The UK Chancellor George Osborne told the delegates at the 2013 Conservative National Conference in Manchester yesterday that he was ending the culture of getting “something for nothing”. In his – Speech – the Chancellor claimed that “no one will get something for nothing” from now on, in reference to the “Help to Work” program, dubbed a new approach, that would see “(f)or the first time, all long term unemployed people who are capable of work will be required to do something in return for their benefits, and to help them find work”. We should immediately challenge the claim that the unemployed are doing nothing. An appreciation of the function that unemployment buffers plays in the capitalist system would tell one that the people who are forced to be in that buffer are certainly very active and protect the rest of us from the damaging consequences of poorly crafted macroeconomic policy. But beyond that, the evidence is clear – workfare schemes are not effective ways to provide pathways to more permanent employment. They are poorly disguised compliance programs designed to let the most disadvantaged workers in our society know that we resent their existence and, like the usurer in the Merchant of Venice, we want our “pound of flesh” in return for the pittance we provide by means of income support. These programs shine a dirty light on how mean-spirited and ignorant we are – in believing that mass unemployment is anything other than a systemic failure of the economy, in the face of deficient aggregate spending, to produce enough jobs and working hours. They are the means by which we indulge in our neo-liberal delusions – until, of-course, the times comes for you or I to face the sack next!

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161 individuals and their lackeys are the target

There was an UK Guardian article today (September 23, 2013) – The American dream has become a burden for most – which argues that the narratives about the American dream are becoming increasingly recognised as a “delusional myth”. The discussion is relevant for a number of growing research agendas that attempt to construct a new understanding of what has been happening over the neo-liberal period (say, the last 3 decades), how the financial crisis occurred, why it is persisting, who underpins the well-funded campaign against budget deficits as a means of reducing unemployment and redistributing national income towards the bottom of the distribution, and how we might go about reforming/restructuring a global financial order that clearly does not work in the interests of all (make that almost everybody!). One such research agenda is emerging from the field of network analysis and some of the results to date provide a chilling picture of who controls the world financial markets and the governments and central banks that seek to regulate these markets. Essentially, if we want to engage in serious reform we have to unseat the power of some 161 individuals.

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Bullshit jobs – the essence of capitalist control and realisation

Today, I was (perhaps) going to discuss the Federal coalition’s so-called budget costings, which they have released this afternoon a day and a half before the federal election is held. The major policy proposals are not costed and the whole exercise makes a mockery of their claims to transparency. The Coalition hired three so-called experts to validate the “costings” (after the debacle in the last election when their were major mistakes in the arithmetic revealed) and those characters should be ashamed of themselves for giving their imprimatur to such a shoddy process. Even from the pittance of information they have released it is clear they do not understand the macroeconomic reality and will damage overall growth. So that is all I intend to say about that matter. But in the last few days I have done a few media interviews (radio) on an article that appeared in the local Fairfax press, but was originally published in the Strike! Magazine as – On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs by LSE anthropologist, David Graeber. The title in the local article had changed to “nonsense jobs” – a sign of the conservatism of our press. The interviews I did were interesting because the article brings together a number of strands that further expose the weakness of the economic theory taught to students in most universities. That is much more interesting to write about here than the tawdry realities of Australian politics at present which can be described as indecent ignorance.

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If you think you know what ‘debt’ is, read on

The title is stolen from the UK Guardian article (July 29, 2013) – If you think you know what ‘debt’ is, read on – by one Alex Andreou. The title suggests he knows the real issues regarding public and private debt. We will see if he does. This is Part 10 in the theme – When you’ve got friends like this. Which should tell you that the article is full of misinformation even though the motivation is sound. This article is another example of progressive macroeconomic discourse which is essentially trapped in mainstream macroeconomics. The simple point is that a truly progressive social agenda has to be grounded in solid macroeconomic principles. Trying to carve out a progressive agenda within a mainstream macroeconomic framework undermines the credibility of the former and plays straight into the hands of the conservatives. So “If you think you know what ‘debt’ is, read on”.

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Latest Australian vacancy data – its all down to deficient demand

The continuing obsession among policy makers combines fiscal austerity and deregulation (particularly of labour markets) as the hope for prosperity. I know these are just catch cries that aim to obfuscate the underlying intent which is to redistribute real income away from workers. But even that conspiracy theory has certain problems when you realise that business doesn’t necessarily do very well in general when economies are locked in a recessive mire. The structural reform argument goes that growth can be engendered by deregulating the labour market to remove inefficiencies that create bottlenecks for growth even when fiscal austerity is slashing aggregate demand and killing growth. The 1994 OECD Jobs Study the provides the framework for this policy approach. The only problem is that it failed even before the crisis emerged. But with policymakers intent on slashing aggregate demand, which they know will kill growth, they have to offer something that they can pretend will generate growth. The structural reform agenda has zero credibility in the same way that fiscal austerity has zero credibility. The latest vacancy data from Australia continues to provide an evidential basis for rejecting both conservative agendas.

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Since when did the BIS become the Neo-liberal Ministry of Misinformation?

One despairs when a sober institution gets ahead of itself, usually because they make hiring mistakes, and start to think they know stuff. This is an organisation that is steeped in statistical analysis and should have a very good idea of empirical regularities. They know that interest rates have been “essentially zero” in Japan since the 1990s and they know that what hasn’t happened as a consequence. They know that central banks have been “expanding their balance sheets” (now “collectively at … three times their pre-crisis level”) and what hasn’t happened as a consequence (inflation). But as the neo-liberal paradigm has concentrated its control of the policy debate, this organisation has morphed from playing a useful role as a coordinator of central banking into a propaganda unit pumping out misinformation and outright lies and distorting the public debate. Welcome to the Bank of International Settlements, which is now firmly ensconced with the likes of the IMF, the OECD, the ECB, the EU, the World Bank, and others as being part of the problem the World economy faces.

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It is hard to defend the 1 per cent by claiming their contribution added value

Writer of popular textbooks on macroeconomic myths, N. Gregory Mankiw has just put out a paper – Defending the One Percent – which is due for publication in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. The paper presents a narrative about the shift in the US personal income distribution (sharply towards higher inequality) since the 1970s in terms of rewards forthcoming to exceptionally skilled entrepreneurs who have exploited technological developments to provide commensurate added value (welfare) to all of us. As a result, rewards reflect contributions and so why is that a problem? In other words, the “left” (as he calls the critics of the rising inequality) are wrong and are in denial of reality. That view is unsustainable when the evidence is combined with a broad understanding of the research literature. Ability explains the tiniest proportion of the movements in income distribution. Social power and class, ignored by the mainstream economics approach, provides a more reliable starting point to understanding the rising inequality.

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Britain continues to look like a failed state

Last week, the UK Department of Work and Pensions released a swathe of new – statistics – on poverty rates in Britain. While the Department tried as hard as it could to present the data in a misleading way and lied the facts, once analysed properly, are chilling indeed for a nation that pretends to be advanced and lectures Europe on its own misanthropic policy positions. I am sometimes asked when making public presentations how I judge the success or otherwise of public policy. I respond with a simple rule of thumb. The benchmark is not how rich the policy framework makes society in general but how rich it makes the poor! The conduct of governments in many nations over the last 20 years has not typified what a sophisticated and rich society should be doing to enhance the prospects of the weakest among us. The policies of the British government in recent years are the antithesis of sound public policy. In that sense, I judge Britain to be a failed state.

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Real wage cuts do not stimulate employment

In last week’s blog – Massive real wage cuts will not improve growth prospects – I considered the mounting evidence that austerity is leading to massive cuts in real wages for workers in Britain without commensurate gains in employment being evident. I have been doing some detailed work on the movements in employment and real wages in Britain over the last decade or so and today some of the more accessible work is presented. You will soon see that the mainstream view that cutting real wages is good for the economy is as absurd as the argument that a fiscal contraction expansion is the path to prosperity. Both policy options are the path to entrenched unemployment and increased poverty rates – exactly the outcome that has befallen the British population as a result of their moronic government policy stance.

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Drowning in a morass of mis-education

I was sent a copy of a survey report – Grand Old Party for A Brand New Generation – which was produced by the so-called College Republican National Committee, which is a conservative university-based organisation in the US aiming to recruit people into the GOP. What emerges is that a lot of opinions are expressed but once you consider them in detail the only possible conclusion is that American college students (inasmuch as this is a representative sample) are hopelessly mis-educated on these matters – like the rest of the population. The level of internal inconsistency with respect to positions taken on macroeconomic policies that is demonstrated in the survey results is quite stunning. But don’t blame the students, their teachers and political leaders let them down too. The economic debate around the world is so infested with neo-liberal myths that it is hard for any alternative viewpoints to get oxygen. Yet the data keeps rejecting the mainstream views, which, it seems, only serves to solidify them further. We are all caught in a morass of mis-education – and our societies are drowning as a consequence. Nero fiddled. We do something else. Civilisations do not last forever.

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72% youth unemployment – the crowning glory of the neo-liberal infestation

It seems like everything is getting smaller in Germany. I read today that Germany’s longest word (63 letters) has been abandoned. It also seems that their jobs are getting smaller and more people are being forced into them. The so-called “mini-jobs”. Meanwhile Europe’s crowning glory and austerity’s greatest achievement lies a little south of the mini-job kingdom. Eurostat’s latest – Regional labour force data – tells us that in some regions in Spain and Greece, the unemployment rates of the 15-24 year olds have topped 70 per cent and will continue to rise. There are now an increasing chorus in the media from politicians and financial market types who are trying to dress all this up as good news. Apparently, the Greek share market is booming. The agenda is clear – if they can somehow convince the world that the devastation of Greece is “good news” then it will reduce the growing resistance to austerity that is starting to broaden the debate. The elites don’t want any moderation. So they have to re-construct devastation to appear to be bringing good outcomes. The madness continues. Tell the 15-24 year olds in Dytiki Makedonia that things are going along swimmingly!

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Daily macroeconomic income losses from unemployment

This is a short background blog which will support the release of my Fantasy Budget 2013-14, which will be part of Crikey’s Budget coverage leading up to the delivery of the Federal Budget on May 14, 2013. The topic of this blog is the estimated losses arising from persistent unemployment. Most people fail to associate on a daily basis how much the economy (and hence individuals and their families) forgoes in terms of lost output and income as a result of the government refusing to use its non-inflationary fiscal capacity to create employment.

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Buffer stocks and price stability – Part 1

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to complete the text during 2013 (to be ready in draft form for second semester teaching). Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

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Austerity as law not political discretion

I agree that we should have speed limits and other traffic regulations to prevent mayhem and carnage on our roads. There are other laws I agree with such as protecting children from sexual predators and laws protecting citizens from police brutality and processes to allow us to monitor and prosecute corruption in public office etc. They all make sense to me. Many other laws I would scrap because they are petty infringements on our liberty. But I would never enshrine a particular fiscal policy stance in law or even in codes such as fiscal rules. Such practice defeats the purpose of having the fiscal policy capacities, which is to respond to economic circumstance such that public purpose including full employment can be maintained at all times. Creating legal frameworks that stop governments from exercising their discretion are not only counter-productive but also highly destructive as we are seeing now in the Eurozone. I prefer the people to be able to tell politicians what they should be doing in this respect not judges. However, the Euro elites have been moving towards making austerity law and eliminating political discretion that disagrees with them. And, come to think of it, when some judges disagree with them on a matter of law, the EU elites just instruct their puppets to ignore the courts and proceed as before.

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Fiscal austerity undermines welfare now and then things get ugly in the future

The latest – EU Employment and Social Situation: Quarterly Review was released yesterday (March 26, 2013). The Press Release – summarises the main results. I will look into the full document in more detail another day. Today (March 27, 2013), the Australian Productivity Commission released a major study – Trends in the Distribution of Income in Australia – which provides a fairly detailed analysis of the “composition of the income distribution”. The connection is that fiscal austerity not only causes unnecessary damage now to the prosperity of the nations afflicted with these incompetent leaders, but it also undermines the future growth path of the nation. One of the many ways in which growth potential is being undermined is through the impact of unemployment and falling participation rates has on income inequality. The latter impact also negates key propositions that mainstream economists teach their students every day that there is a negative trade-off between efficiency and equity. So policies that promote more equitable income distributions are alleged to undermine economic growth. The evidence is exactly the opposite.

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