Recent and upcoming elections tell us a lot about how far gone the global order is

It’s Wednesday and I am flat out finishing things today as I am off to Japan again to work once again at Kyoto University. I will keep you updated on the progress of that work and a public event that we are thinking about in November in Kyoto (or possibly Tokyo or both). For now a few thoughts on current political happenings and some administrative matters.

Interesting election outcomes and prospects

There are two upcoming national elections that will be important in shaping the global economic order in the coming years.

Japan now will go to the polls on October 27, 2024 and the newly appointed Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has signalled he is likely to break away from the neoliberalism that characterised the era of Shinzo Abe.

While he has claimed he supports Bank of Japan ‘independence’ he has not been backward in telling the bank that he wants an accommodating monetary stance to support more fiscal activism.

I will be in Japan during the election and it should be an interesting period, given the factions within the LDP are splintering in the wake of the funding scandals and the impact that has had on the structure of the new cabinet.

The US, of course, goes to the polls in November and it represents a dilemma for the American voters.

Both candidates for the Presidency are unelectable and that fact illustrates that this neoliberal era has finally produced failed states.

One will be elected but spare the world in either case.

Not a good prospect.

But two finalised elections also produced evidence of the polarisation in the world these days has increased.

The Austrian embrace of the Austrian Freedom party (FPÖ) and the decimation of the People’s party (ÖVP) and Social Democratic party (SPÖ) illustrates how far the world is shifting to the extremities.

The FPÖ won 28.8 per cent of the vote compared to its 16.2 per cent vote in 2019.

The ÖVP, by comparison took 37.5 per cent of the vote in 2019 but was only able to gain 26.3 per cent in the 2024 election.

The leader of the FPÖ is now using Hitler-period expressions (such as Volkskanzler) and the party itself is arguably at the most radical of its evolution in terms of the policies it is advocating.

Everything is up for grabs – climate policy, security of minorities, etc

The Far Right is now mainstream in Europe and one can expect the success in Austria to spread into increasing success in Germany (AfD), France (National Rally), the Netherlands (Dutch Freedom Party), Belgium (Vlaams Belang), Italy (Lega) and more.

This period of neoliberalism has created such anxiety among ordinary folks which the organised Left has largely ignored or been complicit in executing, that the only movements that have given voice to the citizenry are these Far Right groups.

And their success is reflecting that fact.

The other interesting outcome is the election of a Marxist revolutionary in Sri Lanka – who led the – Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) – to power at the election on September 23, 2024.

The JVP led the – 198701989 JVP insurrection – against the Sri Lankan government as part of its long history of struggles against US imperialism and the oppression of the Sinhalese and Tamil people.

In 2019, he won just 3 per cent of the vote.

In 2024, he stormed to office with 42.31 per cent of the vote, such is the discord in the country as a result of the harsh neoliberal austerity imposed on it by the IMF with compliance of the established political class in Sri Lanka.

The interesting thing from my perspective about his election is his position on the IMF and the new governments likely rejection of the current austerity plans that the IMF has imposed.

He has indicated that the new government will increase fiscal outlays and reduce taxes and spend more on health care and education, all targets of IMF-austerity programs.

If you study the IMF program in detail – HERE – it will not escape you that it punished the poor and low-income workers and benefits the rich and high income Sri Lankans.

Real wages for the workers have been cut in half almost while cost-of-living increases have been damaging (energy price subsidies are gone, for example).

Meanwhile the large hedge funds pressured the former government to restructure the outstanding debt to satisfy the IMF’s so-called Debt Sustainability Analysis – which I might write about more specifically in the future.

For Sri Lanka the targets set are unbelievable but the short-term burden on the nation of trying to meet the targets will be particularly punishing.

It is estimated that (Source):

the retirement funds of working people, such as garment workers and tea pluckers, over the next 16 years are going to lose half their value. Meanwhile, wealthy investors in the financial sector have got away scot-free, with their investments untouched.

The new government is now up against the financial elites who are served by the IMF.

Under the IMF restructuring program, the new government must devote around 30 per cent of annual GDP to servicing the debt – which will just represent a bonanza to the major international financiers.

It is time that these anti-austerity forces combined to reject the IMF way and find a new way operating.

Defaulting on the outstanding debt is the first part of the solution.

The on-going human genocide in the Middle East

In Australia, the political class is feigning their shock that some protesters last week had the temerity to carry Hezbollah colours during a protest march supporting the innocent people of Gaza and Lebanon.

Both the Government and the Opposition are trying to politicise this for their own gains demanding that police arrest the flag bearers for supporting a terrorist organisation.

I recall back to the Vietnam War protest years where people (including myself) were accused of being traitors for supporting the National Liberation Front against the US-led invasion.

I always find this asymmetric treatment of terrorism terribly convenient for politicians.

But these characters always come across as disgusting hypocrites in their support for Israel, which is now engaged, in my view, in the worst organised terror acts on innocent civiliams since the Holocaust.

The irony of that should not be lost.

In the current conflict, it is clear that the Israeli government, its military forces, and the Zionist movement that gives it succour all around the world are terrorists.

According to the Australian government’s official definition of – International Terrorism – which is based on the UN Committee on Terrorism, requires an “act or threat that is intended to”:

– advance a political, ideological or religious cause; and

– coerce or intimidate an Australian or foreign government or the public (or section of the public), including foreign public.

The conduct falls within the definition if it

– causes serious physical harm to a person or serious damage to property;

– causes death or endangers a persons life;

– creates a serious risk to the health and safety to the public (or section of the public), or

– seriously interferes, disrupts or destroys:

— an electronic information, telecommunications or financial system; or

— an electronic system used for the delivery of essential government services, used for or by an essential public utility, or transport system

In other countries, the definition includes “an intention to advance a political cause”.

The FBI definition of – Terrorism – is:

International terrorism: Violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups who are inspired by, or associated with, designated foreign terrorist organizations or nations (state-sponsored).

Domestic terrorism: Violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups to further ideological goals stemming from domestic influences, such as those of a political, religious, social, racial, or environmental nature

The UN – Definition of Terrorism – is:

Criminal acts intended or calculated to provoke a state of terror in the general public, a group of persons or particular persons for political purposes are in any circumstance unjustifiable, whatever the considerations of a political, philosophical, ideological, racial, ethnic, religious or any other nature that may be invoked to justify them.

General criteria include:

– The use of violence or of the threat of violence in the pursuit of political objectives

– Acts committed by non-state actors (or by undercover personnel serving on the behalf of their respective governments)

– The intentional use of lethal force against civilians, and/or destructive force against civilian areas, buildings or infrastructure.

– Acts reaching more than the immediate target victims and also directed at targets consisting of a larger spectrum of society

– Both mala prohibita (i.e., crime that is made illegal by legislation) and mala in se (i.e., crime that is inherently immoral or wrong)

Thus while the definition varies across countries and according to different individual assessors, by any stretch of the plethora of criteria that have emerged to define terrorism, the current behaviour of the Israeli government and its defence forces constitute international terrorism.

The occupation was already declared illegal by international authorities.

And what has followed since last October is a brutal tyranny of innocent people by a bullying force that is backed and facilitated by the material and political support given to it by many Western governments including the Australian government.

It is a shocking abuse that is going on and demonstrates how the international order has failed to deliver a world that is desirable for all parties to live in.

The other astonishing aspect to all this is that Israel is probably doing the most effective thing it could to spawn further hatred and resistance among the downtrodden communities that they brutalise through occupation, illegal settlements, property consfications, apartheid systems and violence.

I thought this Op Ed (September 29, 2024) – Israel’s assassinations can’t kill resistance – was a reasonable and balanced analysis of the situation.

And Israel has apparently forgotten that it was forced into an embarrassing retreat in 2006 the last time it tried to engage Hezbollah in open warfare.

Dealing with that force in the remote hills of Southern Lebanon is quite a different matter to slaughtering defenseless children in Gaza.

And for the many who bombard me with E-mails accusing me of being anti-Semitic for supporting the Palestinian cause over a long period – F*ck Off – I just delete your messages.

Episode 6 of our MMT Manga will be released tomorrow.

Troubles increase in the Smith Family as Ryan drowns the sorrows of his entrenched unemployment in the bottle.

Elizabeth is not impressed.

And the community is reeling as the privatised Water Company leaks human waste into the streets as a result of their decision to pursue short-term profit at the expense of maintaining the infrastructure.

Go to – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money – to see what is happening.

Don’t forget – the Modern Monetary Theory: Economics for the 21st Century – Open Access MOOC

My educational arm – MMTed – is now offering the – Modern Monetary Theory: Economics for the 21st Century – Open Access MOOC – on an on-going basis.

The 4-week course is free and self-paced.

It is packed with learning resources.

My latest book – on sale now

You can purchase my latest book with Warren Mosler – Modern Monetary Theory: Bill and Warren’s Excellent Adventure (published July 2015 by Lola Books) – from a range of outlets.

But the cheapest places are:

1. Global – Lola Books – €14.00.

2. Australia – Readings – Modern Monetary Theory: Bill & Warren’s Excellent Adventure – SA29.99.

Music – Vacation

This is what I have been listening to while working this morning.

I dug this out of one of my unpacked box of records the other day and it reminded me of how great a guitar player – Mick Taylor – was before his career was dented by his experience with the Rolling Stones.

This album – Blues from Laurel Canyon – was released on Decca in 1968 after – John Mayall – abandoned the – The Bluesbreakers and decided to move to California.

It was also the last time Mick Taylor would record with John Mayall and his next stop was the Stones.

A short track but some great guitar playing.

That is enough for today!

(c) Copyright 2024 William Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.