Beware of structural explanations of cyclical events

One of the things you can always bet on with surety is that the conservatives will always try to convince the public that a cyclical event is, in fact, a ‘structural’ event. This has two, linked purposes. First, they can downplay any hint that aggregate fiscal policy interventions, which work at the macroeconomic level are necessary no matter how bad the problem is. Second, they can then wheel out their favourite ‘structural’ remedies, all of which just happen to result in national income being distributed to profits or high income earners, less capacity for low-wage workers to enjoy real wage rises or reasonably share in national productivity growth, and lower government income support payments to the disadvantaged. A double-whammy strategy. Here is an example of that sort of lie. The US Employment-Population ratio has fallen dramatically since the onset of the crisis and remains stuck at low levels. The reason is clear – there was a huge collapse in employment in 2008 and 2009 and, in the recovery, the rate of job creation has not been sufficiently strong to reverse that decline. Total employment growth has been around or just above the underlying growth in the civilian population (above 16 years), which is why the ratio is stuck. There needs to be much faster employment growth for the US to make back the ground that was lost in the downturn. While the US civilian population is growing older and that is having an impact on the calculated Employment-Population ratio, the impact is small and doesn’t alter the fact that a huge negative cyclical event occurred in the US and the fiscal intervention was not large enough to fix the problem.

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17 inch-long pigeon spikes – out of sight, out of mind

I was happy this morning and then I thought about the spikes that I had read about last week. Those 17-inch spikes didn’t improve my mood. They are symbols of how successful the neo-liberal period has been in dissolving the sense of collective will in our societies. We have been indoctrinated by the capitalists, their servant politicians, and the think tanks and co-opted media to believe that we are all in this for what we can get whereas in the full employment period after World War II we were all in it together. Now we think someone who is unemployed or homeless is in that state because of their own failing whereas we used to understand it was because their were not enough jobs and an individual was powerless to alter that overall lack of spending in the economy. It needed strong government intervention to resolve the issue. Now we consider the homeless are to be treated like pigeons!

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Ricardian agents (if there are any) steer clear of Australia

Today is a public holiday in Australia where we go to the football or do other things all in the name of the Queen’s Birthday – the Queen of England that is. It remains an expression of our colonial yoke and our lack of confidence as a nation, which continues to harm us, none more than our indigenous population. Anyway, the workers get to have a day off, which can’t be a bad thing. One of the more amazing frauds that the population is exposed to from our political leaders is the claim that if you impose fiscal austerity growth will spring forth as consumers and firms start spending again because they don’t have to save up to pay for higher taxes in the future. It is a crazy theory without an evidential standing. More evidence from Australia since the release of the Government’s May Fiscal Statement (aka Budget) is very conclusive that consumers and firms do not like announcements of major fiscal cutbacks.

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Saturday Quiz – June 7, 2014 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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An intellectual storming of the beaches is required in Europe

Seventy years ago today there was a major mobilisation – D Day – designed to free Europe from the German military (and ideological) oppression. The allied troops stormed the beaches at Normandy as part of the so-called ‘Operation Overlord’, which quickly liberated France and set up the campaign that would end Germany’s dominance. Unfortunately, modern day Europe is caught up in a different form of German ideological oppression and the economic consequences have been devastating. The European Central Bank showed yesterday how stifling this oppression is when they made what were considered ‘historic’ changes to policy, which any reasonable assessment would conclude will do very little to stimulate growth. The policy mentality is in denial of history and economic logic. But with fiscal policy bolted down by the neo-liberal ideology there is no room to grow. Another major invasion of Europe is needed – an intellectual storming of the beaches. That is the only way the euro-zone nations will liberate themselves from the current malaise.

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Australian national accounts – a fragile state

Yesterday’s Australian Bureau of Statistics – Australian National Accounts – for the March-quarter 2014, shows that real GDP growth was 1.1 per cent, up from 0.8 per cent in the December-quarter 2013. The annualised growth rate of 3.2 per cent is an improvement on the 2.8 per cent from last quarter and is close to the trend rate between 2000 and 2008 of 3.3 per cent. Growth is being driven almost exclusively by Net exports with some help from household consumption and private investment, although the last two components are fairly subdued. The question is whether the boom in net exports in the Mining secotr in the March-quarter 2014 can be maintained. The signs are that it will taper somewhat in the second-quarter results given that the terms of trade are falling significantly and the export volumes that have been driven by strong growth in China are likely to decline as the Chinese economy slows. Overall, the data paints a fairly fragile picture for the Australian economy with not much sign of activity in the non-Mining sectors.

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Options for Europe – Part 98

The title is my current working title for a book I am finalising over the next few months on the Eurozone. If all goes well (and it should) it will be published in both Italian and English by very well-known publishers. The publication date for the Italian edition is tentatively late April to early May 2014.

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Options for Europe – Part 97

The title is my current working title for a book I am finalising over the next few months on the Eurozone. If all goes well (and it should) it will be published in both Italian and English by very well-known publishers. The publication date for the Italian edition is tentatively late April to early May 2014.

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Options for Europe – Part 96

The title is my current working title for a book I am finalising over the next few months on the Eurozone. If all goes well (and it should) it will be published in both Italian and English by very well-known publishers. The publication date for the Italian edition is tentatively late April to early May 2014.

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