Welcome to the Billy Blog Saturday Quiz. The quiz tests whether you have been paying attention over the last seven days. See how you go with the following questions. Your results are only known to you and no records are retained.
I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to complete the text during 2013 (to be ready in draft form for second semester teaching). Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.
Earlier this week I looked at the latest vacancy data for Australia released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Latest Australian vacancy data – its all down to deficient demand. I also took the time to update my data for the US Bureau of Labor Statistics – US JOLTS database, which provides detailed information about job openings and quit rates. The results for the US are similar to those found in Australia. But the data is apposite given the decision by the State of North Carolina to cut unemployment benefits – thinking that this act of cruelty will somehow reduce their appalling unemployment rate. It won’t.
The alternative title for today could have been my award to the Euro elites for the title as Champions of Europe – for their consistent record-breaking feats – month after month – the unemployment rate rises. Eurostat reported on Monday (July 1, 2013) that – Euro area unemployment rate at 12.2% – up from 11.3 per cent in May 2012. That is an additional 1.4 million workers out of work in the 12 months. Unemployment is nearly reaching 20 million in the Eurozone. 3.5 million under 15s are now unemployed in the Eurozone (23.9 per cent up from 23 per cent in May 2012). Youth unemployment stands at 59.2 per cent in Greece, 56.5 per cent in Spain and 42.1 per cent in Portugal (and rising in all three nations). Talk about leaving a legacy for our grandchildren. Anyway. I thought I might just refresh my understanding of the Greek data today and ask some questions. What comes out is that Christmas is in decline in Greece – at least in a material sense. Which would be good if it was for the right reasons – that is, a renewed enlightenment towards non-material values. The problem is that it reflects a devastated economy being overseen by some bullies who not only fail in their own jobs but also want to make sure millions do not actually have jobs. The question (and there are a multitude of ways we could ask this) is Why?
The continuing obsession among policy makers combines fiscal austerity and deregulation (particularly of labour markets) as the hope for prosperity. I know these are just catch cries that aim to obfuscate the underlying intent which is to redistribute real income away from workers. But even that conspiracy theory has certain problems when you realise that business doesn’t necessarily do very well in general when economies are locked in a recessive mire. The structural reform argument goes that growth can be engendered by deregulating the labour market to remove inefficiencies that create bottlenecks for growth even when fiscal austerity is slashing aggregate demand and killing growth. The 1994 OECD Jobs Study the provides the framework for this policy approach. The only problem is that it failed even before the crisis emerged. But with policymakers intent on slashing aggregate demand, which they know will kill growth, they have to offer something that they can pretend will generate growth. The structural reform agenda has zero credibility in the same way that fiscal austerity has zero credibility. The latest vacancy data from Australia continues to provide an evidential basis for rejecting both conservative agendas.
I get several E-mails a month telling me to pull my head in that because, apparently, Ireland is clearly demonstrating my claims that fiscal austerity will kill growth and cause even higher unemployment is plainly wrong – “just look at the data” – is a regular claim by these phantom contact form types. Heroic indeed. They should have realised by now that I love to “look at the data” and are also circumspect about data that will be revised in the course of time. Last week (June 27, 2013), the Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) released the March-quarter 2013 National Account estimates – GDP decreased 0.6% (Q1 2013 compared with Q1 2012) – which also revised the December-quarter real growth estimates down to show a contraction. That is three consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. That should demonstrate some 4.5 years into their fiscal austerity experiment that it isn’t working. Time for change. So, all you phantoms, save your comments until you have something to say that transcends your blind free market ideology. And perhaps, get a life.
Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.
Welcome to the Billy Blog Saturday Quiz. The quiz tests whether you have been paying attention over the last seven days. See how you go with the following questions. Your results are only known to you and no records are retained.
I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to complete the text during 2013 (to be ready in draft form for second semester teaching). Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.
Yesterday (June 26, 2013), the – US Bureau of Economic Analysis – published the third estimates (revising the second estimates published in late April – US National Income and Product Accounts – for the March-quarter 2013. The substantive changes in the revisions are that the US economic growth rate has been revised down from 2.4 per cent to 1.8 per cent per annum once the more complete data has become available. Personal consumption spending has been revised downwards, and exports declined rather than the initial assessment of an increase. The second estimates revealed a slowing economy in the face of the fiscal drag coming from the government sector, principally the federal government. At the time of their publication, it was clear that the outlook was not optimistic given that this data seemed to exclude the impacts of the “sequester”. We considered that those impacts would manifest more clearly in the June-quarter data. The third estimates now confirm that the lag in the sequester impacts has been shorter than previously thought. The US economy clearly slowed quite sharply in the first-quarter 2013 under the weight of the fiscal drag. The output gap is now over 10 per cent with signs of deflation emerging. The danger is that the US will head towards zero growth as the sequester impacts become more pronounced. The US federal government should increase their net spending rather significantly at present to avoid this downward trend. The US just has to look across the Atlantic, where the data now shows the French economy is now back in recession as a direct result of fiscal austerity.