US Federal Reserve should not increase interest rates

Greetings from London in the early morning! If we went back a few years and dug out all the predictions and scare campaigns that were being issued by mainstream economists and their conservative ‘think tank’ conduits about the impending disaster that would accompany the near zero interest rate regimes that the US Federal Reserve Bank had implemented it would make a great comedy sketch. There should be no surprise with the massive predictive failures of the mainstream economists in this regard. They clearly did not understand the underlying dynamics that govern the way the central bank interacts with the commercial banks. The problem is that these conservative forces are so dumb they don’t have adaptive learning mechanisms and so even in the fact of evidence contrary to their Groupthink they keep pumping out the same nonsense. The other problem is that they tend to be well funded by the right-wing establishment that they exhibit disproportionate influence on the public policy debate. That influence has turned to demands that the US Federal Reserve Bank (the central bank) increase interest rates and reverse its quantitative easing – apparently because hyperinflation is just around the corner. Nothing could be further from the truth. At present the US economy is some way into a very slow and relatively tepid recovery. But it has still some way to go and while interest rate changes have a relatively weak impact on overall growth any anti-growth noise is undesirable. It is also not justifiable given the central bank’s own logic.

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US labour market weakening

The Federal Reserve Bank of America has been publishing a new indicator – the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) – which is derived from a statistical analysis of 19 individual labour market measures since October 2014. It is now being watched by those who want to be the first to predict a rise in US official interest rates. If the latest data from the LMCI is a guide to potential interest rate movements then they won’t be rising any time soon. I updated my gross flows database today and also the job openings and quits database. The gross flows analysis suggests that while there has been improvement in the US labour market in the last year, in recent months that improvement is slowing.

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Long-term unemployment behaviour reflects austerity bias in Eurozone

The Economist Magazine, never one to resist the urge to promote flawed ‘free market’ analysis, does not seem to have learned any lessons from its erroneous coverage of the GFC. It the latest version of what has to be one of the worst-named columns ‘The Economist explains’ (given explanation usually requires knowledge to be imparted) – Why long-term unemployment in the euro area is so high (August 2, 2015), all the usual myths about the labour market are propagated and the obvious ignored because it doesn’t fit the ideological position of the magazine. It purports to ‘explain’ differences in the behaviour long-term unemployment in the Eurozone relative to the US (it is higher in the former) in terms of mobility and generosity of unemployment benefit payment regimes (lower and higher in the former). The real reason – a failure to generate sufficient employment growth as a result of different fiscal policy settings is not canvassed.

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Europe’s US imported nightmare

I note the US have been rather quietly urging the EU to resolve the so-called ‘Greek crisis’, which I really think is a euro-crisis, even though its current epicentre is in Greece. What the Americans are doing beyond the purview of the public gaze is anyone’s guess but we can be sure it is interventionist, self-interested and probably not helpful to the well-being of ordinary Europeans including Greeks. The US influence over Europe has, in fact, culminated in the crisis, even if that realisation is not understood by many. I have just finished reading a book by the French journalist/publisher and politician – Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber – who died in 2006. The book – Le Défi Américain (The American Challenge) was very popular when it was published in 1967. It initially was a major hit in France and later was translated widely. It helped me understand how the US intellectual tradition has at critical times in Europe’s modern history been so definitive.

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Parents are advance secret agents for the class society

Dutch economist Jan Pen wrote in his 1971 book – Income Distribution – that “Parents are advanced secret agents of the class society”, which told us emphatically that it was crucial that public policy target disadvantaged children in low-income neighbourhoods at an early age if we were going to change the patterns of social and income mobility. The message from Pen was that the damage was done by the time the child reached their teenage years. While the later stages of Capitalism has found new ways to reinforce the elites which support the continuation of its exploitation and surplus labour appropriation (for example, deregulation, suppression of trade unions, real wage suppression, fiscal austerity), it remains that class differentials, which have always restricted upward mobility and ensured income inequality and access to political influence persist, are still well defined and functional. This was highlighted in a new report published by the the American Economic Policy Institute (EPI) – Early Education Gaps by Social Class and Race Start U.S. Children Out on Unequal Footing (June 17, 2015). Not much has changed it seems for decades.

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Time to end the human rights atrocity in Gaza

There were three new data and analysis releases in the past week in advanced Western nations (the US, the UK and Australia) that indicate that the policy settings that are in place are not delivering prosperity and should be changed to allow governments more fiscal freedom to stimulate growth. But while these nations continue, variously, to endure the costs that the wrongful policy settings have wrought, a World Bank report issued last week (May 27, 2015) – Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee – allows us to understand a little bit (in numbers and narrative) the terrible (“staggering”) cost of the blockade on the Gaza economy and living standards of the Palestinian people in that region. The plight of the advanced world is nothing by comparison, not that I want to get into a relativist defense of the situation in the advanced world.

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Demand and supply interdependence – stimulus wins, austerity fails

My Phd research, was in part, exposing the myths in conventional or mainstream economics arguments that claim that structural imbalances in the labour market arise independently of the economic cycle and hence, aggregate spending. The mainstream used this assertion to draw the conclusion that government policy could little to bring unemployment down when mass unemployment was largely ‘structural’ in nature. Instead, they proposed that supply-side remedies were necesary, which included labour market deregulation (abandoning employment protection etc), minimum wage and income support cuts, and eroding the influence of trade unions. At the time, the econometric work I undertook showed that so-called structural imbalances were highly sensitive to the economic cycle – that is, the supply-side of the economy was not independent of the demand-side (the independence being an article of faith of mainstream analysis) and that supply imbalances (for example, skill mismatches) rather quickly disappeared when the economy operated at higher pressure. In other words, government fiscal policy was an effective way of not only reducing unemployment to some irreducible minimum but, in doing so, it increased the effectiveness of the labour force (via skill upgrading, higher participation rates etc) – that is, cleared away the so-called structural imbalances. A relatively recent paper from researchers at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington – Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy – finds new US evidence to support the supply-dependence on demand conditions. It is a case of stimulus wins whereas austerity fails.

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US economy slows down sharply, government undermining growth

On Tuesday, the British National Accounts data was published and the preliminary estimates revealed that the British economy was slowing and there would return to recession if the Government was re-elected and put in place its plans for the next three years. Please read my blog – The slowest recovery in modern history just slowed down again. Yesterday, the US Bureau of Economic data release – Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2015 (advance estimate) – showed that the US economy took a turn to the South and “increased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015” after having increased by 2.2 per cent in the fourth-quarter 2014. It is a preliminary (“advance”) estimate and revisions will be published on May 29, 2015. But don’t expect too much to change. The reason for the slowdown is down to a slowdown in personal consumption, exports and non-residential investment and state and local government spending. Federal government spending helped keep the economy in positive growth. Households have lifted their saving ratio a bit (5.5 per cent of disposable personal income compared to 4.6 per cent last quarter).

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US labour market – weaker than headline data indicates

The latest US – Employment Situation Summary – for March 2015, was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last Friday (April 3, 2015). The growth in employment was disappointing to say the least. The Bloomberg survey of economists came up with an median estimate of 247,000 (net) jobs would be created in March. The data shows only 126,000 would be created. The closest forecast in the Survey was 200,000. The data is consistent with other negative data published in the last week (for example, the ADP National Employment Report. Most of the commentators focused on the fact that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5 per cent. This was taken as an indicator that the US labour market was still relatively strong. But closer analysis provides quite a different view of the state of the US employment situation.

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Wage rises are required – real wages must grow in line with productivity

There was an interesting article in the UK Guardian last weekend (March 29, 2015) – Why falling inflation is a false pretext for keeping wages low – which examined wage trends in the UK and the validity of the argument that “Falling inflation now provides employers with a pretext for keeping wage settlements low”. Employer groups never support wage increases and are continually trying to suppress real wages growth below productivity growth so that they can enjoy a greater share of national income. As part of my research to discover the nature of the ideological shift accompanying the emergence of Monetarism as the dominant policy paradigm I have been examining wage distributions. This is part of a book I will complete next year (fingers crossed) on the demise of the political left. In this blog we examine the shifting relationship between labour productivity growth and real wages growth since 1960. The results are illuminating and open up a broad research front about which I will write more as time passes.

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