I plan to send my final manuscript for my Eurozone book to the publishers tonight. I have some final checks to make on the 390 pages. I hope it will be published in both English and Italian later in the year. Obviously I will promote it here once it is ready. The book contends that the Eurozone is structurally biased towards stagnation because of the neo-liberal rules that constrain national governments from dealing with large spending collapses with appropriately scaled fiscal responses. The crisis in now into its 6th year and there is little sign that the stagnation is over. Indeed, the latest data would suggest that some of its largest economies are going backwards still. Italy has just announced it is back in recession and factory orders to Germany have plunged. I have been saying it for years but repetition is no sin – they should dismantle the currency union in an orderly manner and allow the national governments to return to growth in their own way. The nations are incapable of doing that collectively given the neo-liberal Groupthink that has them in a vice. So, a rogue nation is needed to break out of the straitjacket and provide a blueprint for the others. Italy should be that nation. In many ways it has panache and flair – it is time to show it in this specific way.

Last week, the Chief economist at the Deutsche Bundesbank, Dr. Jens Ulbrich gave a rather extraordinary interview to the German Magazine Der Spiegel. The interview was recorded in the article – Breaking a German Taboo: Bundesbank Prepared to Accept Higher Inflation. The sub-heading said that this marks a “major shift away from the Bundesbank’s hardline approach on price stability” and my profession apparently “hailed the decision as a ‘breakthrough'”. I wouldn’t be so sure. The Bank has a long track record of ignoring the plight of German workers and the workers elsewhere in Europe. The imposition of its ‘culture’ with its disdainful disregard for responsible economic policy on Eurozone political elites has created so much slack in Europe that even it cannot deny the mounting evidence that there is a deflationary problem. But this support for workers’ wage rises won’t last. As soon as the inflation rate exhibits the first uptick – the Bundesbank will be out there berating all and sundry about the dangers of profligacy! Leopards don’t change their spots.

One of the major demands that the Germans made on its partners leading into Maastricht in 1991 was the need for a politically independent central bank that was focused on price stability alone. This was claimed to be essential because it would stop politicians imposing so-called short-termism onto monetary policy (read: caring about people who might be unemployed or otherwise in need of fiscal assistance), which would compromise the inflation fighting process. These unaccountable, unelected central bank boards were then free to do what they wanted and demonstrated a willingness to use unemployment as a policy tool rather than a policy target to ensure economies were as close to deflating as possible, irrespective of what that meant for economic and employment growth. It is, of-course a farce to think that a central bank can be independent anyway either in a political sense or an economic sense. But the neo-liberal hype about independence was to ensure governments could absolve themselves of the public ignominy of rising unemployment and the political costs that went with that, and, instead, blame the central bankers. The bankers had no political constituency to manage or groom and could hide behind the ever-present paranoia about hyperinflation to ‘justify’ their policy approach. But the central bankers are ‘independent’ only when it suits them. Or should we say ‘independence’ is a one-way street. If the politicians dare to comment on monetary policies there is a hue and cry. But central bankers feel they can provide advice to the democratically elected governments whenever they choose and the media hardly blinks. Hypocrisy has no bounds.

Apparently, the mangy cat that was the Celtic Tiger is about to become the Celtic Tiger again. One of many reports that suggest Ireland is about to have a “here we go again” boom – The mauled Celtic Tiger is ready to roar again (UK Telegaph, July 5, 2014) – claimed last week that while “few Western nations suffered more than Ireland” as the GFC unfolded, it is now “perhaps” about “to stage a convincing recovery”. This statement followed the release of the “latest GDP rebound, driven by a 1.8pc rise in exports over the first quarter and an inventory turnaround”. I am not yet convinced nor should I say was the journalist in question. The so-called recovery is very tentative and domestic demand remains weak. Further, as before the crisis, a substantial portion of the growth is being repatriated offshore to foreign owners of capital. Moreover, a new phenomenon has crept into the picture – the so-called ‘tax inversion’, which makes it harder to disentangle what is actually happening with the Irish National Accounts.

There was a report in the papers this morning about a horrific beating in one of the poorest migrant areas north of Paris. The article – Roma teen attacked: the images that will shock France was really a repeat of a story in the UK Telegraph. I don’t want to go into the details because I don’t know them. But what is apparent in modern day Europe is the increasing breakdown of social stability and an emerging law of the jungle driven by unemployment, poverty and the inevitable social exclusion. I do not accept that migrants have to poor just because they start with nothing and cannot speak the local language with proficiency if at all. What is clear is that austerity is undermining the social fabric of Europe and this shocking incident is just one of many manifestations of that. And it will get worse.

Seventy years ago today there was a major mobilisation – D Day – designed to free Europe from the German military (and ideological) oppression. The allied troops stormed the beaches at Normandy as part of the so-called ‘Operation Overlord’, which quickly liberated France and set up the campaign that would end Germany’s dominance. Unfortunately, modern day Europe is caught up in a different form of German ideological oppression and the economic consequences have been devastating. The European Central Bank showed yesterday how stifling this oppression is when they made what were considered ‘historic’ changes to policy, which any reasonable assessment would conclude will do very little to stimulate growth. The policy mentality is in denial of history and economic logic. But with fiscal policy bolted down by the neo-liberal ideology there is no room to grow. Another major invasion of Europe is needed – an intellectual storming of the beaches. That is the only way the euro-zone nations will liberate themselves from the current malaise.