Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for February 2014 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics can be taken in one of two ways. Either the strong full-time employment growth and rising participation rate is a turning point and the economy is improving or the ABS will revise the data downwards and things won’t look so rosy next month. That is the problem of data that exhibits (at times) big monthly shifts that are not reliable. But let’s hope it is the data shift is signalling better times to come. Full-time employment jumped (suspiciously) by 80,500 thousand, the largest monthly change since August 1991 and in the months that followed things fell apart quickly. The participation rate rose by 0.2 points this month, which meant the employment growth was unable to prevent unemployment from rising. The unemployment rate rose (on rounded figures) to 6 per cent from 5.9 per cent and is 50 per cent above the previous low in February 2008. A month’s employment growth is a good thing but there is no cause for celebration. Monthly hours worked fell in February and taken together with the growth in full-time employment and the plunge in part-time employment, one could easily suspect that the high-end hours part-time jobs have been converted into full-time jobs (which is a good thing) but overall the labour force worked less. It remains that employment growth has been around zero for nearly two years and there is an upward bias in unemployment.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for January 2014 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded a second consecutive month of negative employment growth and the unemployment rate rose to 6 per cent with participation constant. Full-time employment continued to contract. The data confirms that there needs to be a major rethink in the macroeconomic policy settings in favour of stimulus. Employment growth has been around zero for nearly two years and there is an upward bias in unemployment. The situation will worsen unless the Government shows some leadership and increases its net spending and targets employment creation. The problem is that the Government is becoming obsessed with ideological pettiness (attacking unions, welfare recipients, refugees etc) and failing to meet the challenges that it faces in an appropriate manner. It has even been caught out lying in recent weeks about the reasons that the SPC Cannery is now struggling and Toyota are to close car manufacturing. Moreover, it is now being urged by the IMF to cut the government deficit in the upcoming May fiscal policy statement (aka ‘The Budget’). Neither the Government nor the IMF seem to be grounded on this planet at the moment.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for December 2013 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that employment growth is now negative (again), unemployment is rising (slightly) and the participation rate fell sharply, which cushioned the rise in unemployment. The data confirms that there needs to be a major rethink in the macroeconomic policy settings in favour of stimulus. Employment growth has been around zero for nearly two years and there is an upward bias in unemployment. The situation will worsen unless the Government shows some leadership and increases its net spending and targets employment creation. The problem is that the Government is already demonstrating its lack of leadership credentials across a range of policy portfolios.

Yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – International Trade in Goods and Services – data for November 2013 which told us that the national economy is slowing. We learned that while exports were aout steady, imports (particularly consumption goods) fell for the fourth consecutive month and capital and intermediate goods imports rose, which suggests that explanations relating to the switching of the commodities (mining) boom from the investment to export stage are not accurate. The data tells us that household incomes are being squeezed by rising unemployment which generally means that import spending will drop. The irony is that the trade deficit fell, which means that the drain on growth from the trade sector is now lower (that is, this is a stimulatory move) despite it being driven by sluggish growth. Today, the ABS released its – Job Vacancies – data for the November-quarter 2013 and it confirmed that the labour market continues to slide backwards in the face of subdued private spending and the national government’s penury. This is all in the context of conservatives coming out and slamming gay marriages, single mothers, women who seek abortions and the meagre number of labour market protections that remain in place. It is all about priorities I suppose. The current government is suggesting their priorities are to further the well-being of the well-to-do and chip away at what assistance is available for the disadvantaged Australians.

Last week, the Holden Motor Car Company, a division of General Motors announced it was intending to close its Australian operations down in 2017 after having operated on a continuous basis in one form or another since 1856. The decision has led to outbreaks of nostalgia, worries about our national identity (since when has a national identity been tied up with a foreign-owned capitalist firm?), and calls for more government subsidies to the industry that has been in decline for years. The problem is that thousands of jobs are directly and indirectly impacted by the closure (although there are some years before the full brunt will be experienced) and that is an issue that the government has to manage through appropriate policy interventions. The real issue is that the current thrust of aggregate (macroeconomic) policy does not provide one with much confidence that the government will introduce appropriate responses to the closures. I offer some thoughts by way of an introduction in this blog.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for November 2013 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirms that the new government needs to substantially alter the macroeconomic policy settings in favour of stimulus to address the virtually zero employment growth and the upward trend in unemployment. We learned today that employment growth failed to keep pace with the underlying population growth and as a result unemployment rose to 5.8 per cent (with participation constant). Hours of work also fell. The actual extent of labour underutilisation is significantly higher than indicated by the unemployment rate, given that the participation rate is well down on its most recent peak and underemployment is at 7.6 per cent. With the new government biased towards “market outcomes” the current austerity mindset will ensure the labour market deteriorates further.

Today our research centre – Centre of Full Employment and Equity – which is known as CofFEE, released the second version of our – Employment Vulnerability Index – which is an indicator that identifies the localities (medium-sized areas) in Australia that are most vulnerable to job losses when economic activity declines. The Australian labour market has not recovered the ground it lost in the downturn associated with the Global Financial Crisis. After showing signs of recovery as a result of the fiscal stimulus in 2009-10, the fiscal austerity that the Federal government imposed as it obsessively pursued a budget surplus has caused us to lose all the gains that were made. The Government failed in its quest because it overestimated the strength of private spending (which is still very flat) and its deficit was too low anyway when it started its austerity push. The new Federal government is finding out that all its tough talk before the September election about delivering bigger surpluses than its predecessors is just hot air and the slowing economy is pushing the deficit higher not lower. In this environment, the labour market is precariously balanced and likely to continue to deteriorate. The EVI provides a guide to where the on-going job losses are likely to be across the urban and regional space.

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for October 2013 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirms that the new government needs to substantially alter the macroeconomic policy settings in favour of stimulus to address the virtually zero employment growth and the upward trend in labour underutilisation. We learned today that employment growth remains around zero and full-time employment fell significantly. Unemployment also rose and the unemployment rate rose to 5.7 per cent. The actual extent of labour underutilisation is significantly higher than indicated by the unemployment rate, given that the participation rate is well down on its most recent peak and underemployment is rising. This data signals an urgent need for fiscal stimulus to reverse the negative trend. Unfortunately, with both sides of politics are locked into an austerity mindset the situation is likely to deteriorate further.

The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Reform Council, which is part of the federal-state government machinery released a report this week – Education in Australia 2012: Five years of performance (2 mgbs) – under the terms specified in the National Education Agreement that was signed in January 2009. The agreement was a major piece of policy in the term of the previous Labor government and aimed to ensure that “all Australian school students acquire the knowledge and skills to participate effectively in society and employment in a globalised economy”. The Report considers the progress of the policy frameworks to see “whether these outcomes have improved over the five years since the agreement was developed”. Some of the key findings are very disturbing and demand immediate policy action.