There is a great sense of denial in Europe

Over the last week or so I have been in Europe and talking to all sorts of people. In the streets the decay is clear and I am in a relatively rich part of Europe (Maastricht). Unsold properties are multiplying and the there are lots of shopping space vacant in the main centres. It is very apparent to me but when I ask people about this some express surprise – not having noticed it themselves. I concede that when you come here once a year you note the changes but the reality is fairly stark. If we put this anecdotal evidence together with the way in which the Euro bosses are behaving and the overall quality of the policy debate in Europe at present it is clear to me that there is a great sense of denial in Europe. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Germany. Their growth model has failed and must change. But it will be very difficult to achieve the sort of national awareness that will render that change possible. The Eurozone was always going to fall apart as a result of its basic design flaws from its inception. But the German strategy – which they consider to be a source of national pride – actually ensured that once the basic design flaws were exposed by the collapse of aggregate demand, things would be much worse than otherwise.

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Greece should default and exit the euro immediately

Regular readers will note that I have consistently advocated the abandonment of the Euro and especially the immediate exit of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy to push things along. The basic design flaws in the ideologically-constructed monetary union were always going to bring it down. It wasn’t a matter of if but when. The when was always going to be the first major negative aggregate demand shock that the union experienced. Come 2008 we saw very starkly how quickly the region unravelled and now the situation is getting worse not better. Not many commentators agreed with me and most argued that with some tinkering and some harsh austerity the zone could rescue itself. The problem is basic though and has little to do with behaviour of the member states, although I will write tomorrow how the conduct of the Germans has exacerbated the crisis. It is clear that governments like Spain were more frugal than Germany’s government prior to the crisis and they now have 20 per cent unemployment and worse. As the crisis deepens though more commentators are now arguing for a Greek default and/or both default and exit. The sooner the southern states get out of the bind they are and free of the pernicious ideology of the EU/IMF/ECB troika the better. Tomorrow is not a day too soon.

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You couldn’t make all this stuff up

Its hard to know where to start today. I opened my hard copy version of the Financial Times this morning and every page was “Greek yields off the scale”; “Greece default talk”; “Number of Americans in poverty at highest in 50 years”; “Rome set to identify next asset sales”; Fears of Greek collapse prey on French banking”; “Brics to debate possible eurozone aid”; and so it went. You couldn’t make this stuff up. To avoid sinking into an inconsolable depression, I closed the orange pages and, maybe foolishly, turned my attention to the Wall Street Journal. That came up with gems such as “Limiting the Damage of a Greek Default”; “Exit Strategy Goes Right Out the Door for Euro-Zone States”; “Yields in Italian Bond Auction Highlight Financing Challenge”; “China Not Seen as Knight Riding to Rescue of Italy”; at which point I wondered – given my current geographic location – what happens if I get stuck here? And then, to ease the day’s burden I wondered why the WSJ spells the Eurozone with a hyphen. That seemed to calm things down. Researching the use and mis-use of hyphens splitting words in two. But the thought kept lingering – this is so bizarre that you couldn’t make all this stuff up.

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Better off studying the mating habits of frogs

Day 3 in the Land of Austerity (LA LA land). I sometimes enjoy a regular little private activity now which I call for want of a better term – “I told you so” – and which involves going back to articles that were written prior to the crisis about macroeconomic trends and having a laugh about their contents. Today I thought I might share one of these articles with you because it came up in a telephone conversation I had today with a British journalist who was seeking background on a story they were writing. Their contention was that the ECB is in danger of going broke. I suggested (nicely) that they would be better off focusing on the mating habits of frogs in the Lake District of England than writing a story like that. Here is why I said that.

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Impeccably running a sinking ship

Today I am writing from Austerity Land a.k.a Europe. I know Britain is also austerity land but it has its own currency and will be able to reverse direction more easily as the political sentiment moves against them. I know the US is also trying to emulate the austerity lands but so far the deficit is sufficient to maintain some vague sense of growth there and the politicians haven’t really been able to agree on anything. But in Europe the politicians and central bankers are systematically demolishing their economies – one step at at time – and pushing the system ever more closer to collapse. It is only the extraordinary “outside the rules” intervention of the European Central Bank that is keeping the EMU from collapsing virtually immediately. The Australian ABC News is carrying a story (September 13, 2011) – Shares hit 2-year low as Eurozone crisis deepens. The message of that article is being repeated in various languages over here in Europe across the mainstream media. There is an advanced state of denial over here – a denial that the problem is the Euro itself. How could a currency be a problem? Answer: when it is foreign to every government that uses it. Whatever we conclude about who pays taxes in Greece or who doesn’t; about whether certain public servants have excessively generous pay and conditions or not; about whether workers in one nation are lazier than workers in another; none of these mini-debates focuses on the issue. The problem is that when a nation surrenders its currency-issuing capacity and starts borrowing in a foreign-currency then it is open to solvency risk and cannot respond easily to a negative demand shock of the proportions that we say hit the world in 2007-08. Setting up a monetary system with those intrinsic features ensured that the EMU would enter crisis when the first significant negative demand shock arrived. It was not if but when. Now the same logic that got the EMU into this mess is also prolonging the crisis and denying the region of much-needed growth.

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Self-inflicted catastrophe

In the last few days, while MMT has been debating with Paul Krugman, several key data releases have come out which confirm that the underlying assumptions that have been driving the imposition of fiscal austerity do not hold. Ireland led the way in early 2009 cheered on by the majority of my profession who tried to sell the world the idea of the “fiscal contraction expansion”. Apparently, there were millions of private sector spenders (firms and consumers) out there poised to resurrect their spending patterns once the government started to reduce its discretionary net spending. Apparently, these spenders were on strike – and saving like mad – because they feared the public deficits would have to be paid back via higher future taxes and so the savings were to ensure they could pay these higher taxes. It is the stuff that would make a sensible child laugh at and think you were kidding them. Now, the disease has spread and the data is telling us what we already knew. The economists lied to everyone. None of them will be losing their jobs but millions of other will. And the worse part is that the political support seems to be coming from those who will be damaged the most. Talk about working class tories! This is a self-inflicted catastrophe.

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The system in deep trouble and it is waiting to blow

Today is rather historic because it is the 40th anniversary of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. On August 15, 1971, the then US President Nixon gave an address to the nation – The Challenge of Peace – where he announced the “temporary” suspension of the dollar’s convertibility into gold – and by closing the “gold window” the fixed exchange rate system was over. The demise of the fixed exchange rate system – and by implication the introduction of the fiat monetary system – provided governments with the scope to pursue domestic policies without tying monetary policy to defending the parity. It gave fiscal policy the capacity to sustain full employment no matter what else occurred. It is a pity that since then governments have been steadily white-anted by conservatives who have aimed to undermine the capacity to ensure there are enough well-paid jobs available at all times. The 2008 crisis that is now reverberating again is a direct result of the conservative political success since that time – not only directly but also indirectly, by pushing the political spectrum so far to the right that the “left” are not “right”. The result of all this is that the “system in deep trouble and it is waiting to blow”.

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EU agreement on Greece – no solution at all

The big news over night apart from whether Murdoch junior lied and whether the Republicans will compromise with Obama and the Democrats was the successful conclusion of a package to save the Eurozone and stabilise Greece. I actually think the best European news was the drama that was being played out on the heights of Galibier Serre-Chevalier in Southern France yesterday. I thought the theatre and backdrops were stupendous. But while that is getting some coverage the news is being dominated by the “done deal” – the “solution” to the Euro debt crisis. When I read the – Statement by the Heads of State or Government of the euro area and EU institutions – I considered it a statement of a group of failed states who have lost perspective on what governments should be doing.

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When the elites wine and dine together and hand out prizes to each other

What I learned studying history at university about Charlemagne I have mostly forgotten other than the broad brush of his historical presence. I know where he is buried because his Frankish home base was Aachen on the extreme west of Germany bordering with the Netherlands. I have spent a lot of time in that area (given my association with the University of Maastricht) and have visited the cathedral that houses his grave. What I can recall is that he was a Christian imperialist who forcibly imposed “Germanic” rule on most of what is now Western Europe. But while he largely restored the old “Holy Roman empire”, this “unity” did not last long after his rule ended. That is, he dramatically failed to embed a lasting unity. I think it is appropriate then that yesterday, the President of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, was awarded the famous The Karlspreis which is in honour of Charlemagne. The Germans think it is about unity or at least that is what they claim it is about. The other analogy with Charlemagne is that just as he sought to impose his religious views on the “heathens”, Trichet is also seeking to impose another religion on the people of Europe – neo-liberalism. It is a religion that has failed to provide succour to those who have had to endure it. It works well for the “priests” as all religion seem to. But it is imposing harshness and calamity on the rest. Anyway, in Aachen yesterday, it was another one of those days when the elites wine and dine well together and hand out prizes to each other.

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