Fiscal austerity undermines welfare now and then things get ugly in the future

The latest – EU Employment and Social Situation: Quarterly Review was released yesterday (March 26, 2013). The Press Release – summarises the main results. I will look into the full document in more detail another day. Today (March 27, 2013), the Australian Productivity Commission released a major study – Trends in the Distribution of Income in Australia – which provides a fairly detailed analysis of the “composition of the income distribution”. The connection is that fiscal austerity not only causes unnecessary damage now to the prosperity of the nations afflicted with these incompetent leaders, but it also undermines the future growth path of the nation. One of the many ways in which growth potential is being undermined is through the impact of unemployment and falling participation rates has on income inequality. The latter impact also negates key propositions that mainstream economists teach their students every day that there is a negative trade-off between efficiency and equity. So policies that promote more equitable income distributions are alleged to undermine economic growth. The evidence is exactly the opposite.

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A chicken in every pot!

It is a busy day today with meetings in one capital city, then a presentation a bit later in the day in another city – so time is short. Over the weekend, I watched an episode of the recent Ken Burns’ documentary – The Dust Bowl – which traces the events surrounding the drought during the Great Depression in the so-called – Dust Bowl – of the United States. It is worth watching if only for the stark reminder of how the main body of my profession is so deluded. I should add that as a strict vegetarian the title of my blog is rather offensive but it is faithful to history and that has value in itself. While the neo-liberal historical revisionist teams relentlessly attempt to airbrush all fact out of the Great Depression the inescapable truth is that thousands of American adults and their children would have died during the Dust Bowl crisis had not the American government intervened with food parcels and then major public sector job creation schemes such as the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) and later the Works Progress Administration (WPA). Government fiscal stimulus saved America. No “chickens” were put in “pots” by the “market” during that time. Rather it was the government that fed and clothed the people. Nothing has changed since.

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Growth and jobs are things governments can buy and summon

I left out the word not between the words “are” and “things” and replace the “or” with “and” between buy and summon. Otherwise this would have been the latest piece of insight offered by the outgoing EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy, who appears to be intellectually stretched when it comes to the most basic macroeconomic concepts despite regularly making comments that appear to be of a macroeconomic nature. Let me remind him: spending equals income and output. Growth in spending when there is massive (and rising) excess real productive capacity will generate growth in income and output. Growth in income and output almost certainly generate growth in employment. And, just in case we might be worried that any crowded-in productivity growth reduces the employment dividend and, cogniscant of the fact that there are millions of relatively unskilled workers without jobs in Europe at present, governments around the region could employ all of them if they introduced an unconditional Job Guarantee. Governments can create extra real growth and jobs anytime they choose unless the economy is already at full employment. Then they would not want to anyway. So the question that Mr Van Rompuy should be answering is why he is overseeing government machinery that refuses to give the governments this capacity. That is a question none of them will answer.

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Fiscal austerity is bad – there are no qualifications

I know people like to dream and Latvians are apparently no exception. Their latest collective dream, or at least, those of the elites that fancy wining and dining in style in Brussels, is to join the Eurozone. The Latvian government has now formally requested the EU to undertake a “Convergence Report assessment” of the Latvian economy to facilitate membership by January 2014. The opinion polls do not necessarily support the intent of the Government. But the conservatives are out in force with supporting narratives. One such attempt at making the impossible argument was from on Anders Aslund, who is one of Peter Peterson’s stooges and has co-written a book with the Latvian Prime Minister. He wrote a Bloomberg Op Ed (January 8, 2013) – Why Austerity Works and Stimulus Doesn’t – which turned out to be a major revision of all the known facts and concepts that almost everybody else (apart from the pro-austerity spivs and their hangers-on) would by now have to share. I made a few graphs. Fiscal austerity is bad. There are no qualifications.

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The denial of gravity

I was talking about economics at lunch-time today (as you do) and my company was irate about a TV interview that aired last night on the national public broadcaster (the ABC). The source of the angst was the increasing tendency of interviews on the ABC (and other media outlets) to express ill-informed opinions that serve to bias the interview and reinforce the dominant neo-liberal ideology. Such behaviour conditions the public to accept highly contestable propositions as fact, constructions of which, then defines the “solutions” and leave off the discussion table alternative scenarios and propositions that, in fact, represent the responsible policy options given the circumstances. This bias is part of a more general syndrome that defines the neo-liberal era, which is the equivalent of denying gravity. We are now fed a string of statements that parade as authoritative commentary or evidence that are, in fact, total fabrications and deny basis relationships that are at the heart of our monetary systems. This denial of “gravity” has become an art form and is used to bully us into accepting outcomes that advance the interests of the elites and undermine broader social welfare. It is a most extraordinary conflation of values and lies.

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Balancing budget over the cycle is not a sound fiscal rule

There were three data releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics today and all showed that the Australian economy is continuing to weaken. The – Business Indicators, Australia – showed that company gross operating profits fell for the fifth consecutive quarter (7 our of the last 10). Second, the data for – Building Approvals, Australia – which is one indicator of the strength of the housing market and the construction industry, showed that the seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling approved fell by 2.4 per cent in January, the second consecutive monthly fall. Finally, the – Mineral and Petroleum Exploration, Australia – showed that “mineral exploration expenditure decreased by 10.2% in the December quarter 2012”. What this data tells us is that private spending is weak and probably weakening. It tells us that fiscal policy should be expansionary rather than following its present course of austerity. It tells us that unless the government reverses its current strategy, the Australian economy will weaken further. It also tells us that commentators and politicians that think fiscal rules such as “balancing the budget over the cycle” are sound strategies to adopt are either operating in a cloud of ignorance or deliberately misleading the public as to the likely outcomes that would follow from pursuing such a rule.

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Learning standards in economics – Part 3

This is Part 3 (and the final part) of my mini-series of blogs – “Learning Standards in Economics”. In this blog I consider the way in which learning standards have evolved in the United Kingdom. I propose that they privilege the curriculum development in favour of a monistic approach – which biases programs to advance the competiive, neo-classical model as the way the real world operates. These standards deter universities from offering pluralistic approaches to economics that promote its broad social science qualities. The narrow monist approach, of-course, serves to reinforce the neo-liberal dominance in economic policy making. Such an approach has been one of the principle reasons the world is mired in financial and economic crisis and doesn’t appear to be able to find a way out. The policy framework being imposed by governments is closing the door to growth and increasing unemployment and poverty rates. It is based on the mainstream textbook models that dominate economics education. I hope the Australian exercise in developing so-called “learning standards in economics” will reject the neo-classical textbook monistic approach and come out in favour of a radical rethink of the way economics is taught in Australian universities. However, given the real politic that surrounds these exercises and the bodies that are key players in the development of the standards I won’t be holding my breath on that one.

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Learning standards in economics – Part 2

Today is Part 2 of my little mini-series on “Learning standards in economics”. It might appear to be a break in continuity from yesterday’s blog but when I get around to Part 3, I think you will see the way in which today’s discussion fits well. Last month (January 24, 2013), the Peter Peterson Foundation – which is just a propaganda front for people with too much money and influence designed to advance spurious ideas about the economy – released a statement – College Students Launch Campaigns Across the Country to Activate a New Generation on the Nation’s Fiscal Challenges. When I delved into what it was about the story became very mirky indeed. Teams of students are being assembled under the banner of what we might call the “we are self-important and want to show it” banner and being coaxed into action The essential part of education – the search for knowledge – is the missing part. The myth that the US government is going broke is the starting point not the enquiry.

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Learning standards in economics – Part 1

I am working in Dili (Timor Leste) today until Friday. With various travel and official obligations I haven’t much time today. Internet connectivity is also not flash at present. So this blog might be spread out over two or even three days because the issue I plan to address will take some time to articulate. One of the projects I am pursuing in my 2-year period working at CDU (in Darwin) is the development of a new program in Economics. The proposal is to develop a broad, pluralist social science degree program aimed at encouraging students to think critically about conceptual and policy-related issues and see the economy as being serving society rather than the more narrow focus on the “business” sector. The program will emphasise history, philosophy, politics, place and space, culture, be quantitatively focused, and ensure that operational realities within the monetary system are understood clearly. So, for those who know how economics curricula has developed over the years – this proposed course will be somewhat innovative and run against the tide, which in the main has focused on narrowing down economics to be just a service program in a business course (I was about to type education but quickly substituted course instead). At this point of my work I have run into the latest craze – the development of qualifications and learning standards.

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One Ferrari does not a recovery make

I thought that blog title today was appropriate given that Aristotle was Greek. Today I explore motor vehicle registrations – well to be exact, a single registration. That is a backdrop to a brief discussion about the OECD’s latest publication – Going for Growth 2013 Report – which takes the ludicrous to a new level. These organisations need to be closed and the cash that governments pump into them to provide very amenable – some would say, over the top – working conditions (high pay, no tax obligations, well supported travel, first class facilities etc) could be diverted into something more useful. Like provide some low-paid workers with jobs. Lets assume one OECD manager earns the same wage as about 20 low-paid workers per week. The trade-off 1 job lost for 20 gained sounds a good bet to me. Anyway, amidst all the talk about structural agendas and reform zeal there is an ugly truth. There has to an easing of the macroeconomic constraint that is preventing economies from generating enough jobs. Firms need to see spending before they will increase production. Making life harder for workers through cuts to wages, conditions of work, pensions and the like will not create a single job. I lie – at least one job. Some OECD official will get assigned the job of evaluating their work and then a renewed bout of lies will emerge clothed in techno-speak. I just know that one Ferrari does not a recovery make. It tells me that the world is turning for the worse.

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