The catch-all category for my blogs reflecting my professional expertise as a full professor of economics.

72% youth unemployment – the crowning glory of the neo-liberal infestation

It seems like everything is getting smaller in Germany. I read today that Germany’s longest word (63 letters) has been abandoned. It also seems that their jobs are getting smaller and more people are being forced into them. The so-called “mini-jobs”. Meanwhile Europe’s crowning glory and austerity’s greatest achievement lies a little south of the mini-job kingdom. Eurostat’s latest – Regional labour force data – tells us that in some regions in Spain and Greece, the unemployment rates of the 15-24 year olds have topped 70 per cent and will continue to rise. There are now an increasing chorus in the media from politicians and financial market types who are trying to dress all this up as good news. Apparently, the Greek share market is booming. The agenda is clear – if they can somehow convince the world that the devastation of Greece is “good news” then it will reduce the growing resistance to austerity that is starting to broaden the debate. The elites don’t want any moderation. So they have to re-construct devastation to appear to be bringing good outcomes. The madness continues. Tell the 15-24 year olds in Dytiki Makedonia that things are going along swimmingly!

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OECD predicts that pigs will fly

Its an amazing world where the neo-liberals go from one ridiculous economic policy failure (plan) to another as if we are totally without any understanding of what they are up to. The latest examples include the German talk about how growth oriented they are and their sudden concern for the youth unemployment emergency that they now say needs immediate attention. Of-course, this “emergency” has been staring them in the face for nigh on five years and is the creation of their policies. Now they cry crocodile tears and promise a few measly billion in structural assistance, which won’t even scratch the surface of the problem they created. And they have the audacity to think they have credibility. Another example, is the decision by the ruling elites in Brussels to give France, Spain, Poland and Slovenia a further two years to kill their economy and this is being constructed as lenience. So bash your economy to hell slighly more slowly than before and everyone is meant to think that is credible. Why do we tolerate these morons? Then we have the OECD who waste trees by producing their Economic Outlook, which came out yesterday.

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So infested with neo-liberalism that they cannot add up anymore

We will start with a quiz question today. Its a very hard question so you will have to think long and hard to get the right answer. If you were the government and had the choice of spending $A114,975 per annum (or $A315 per day) to derive zero benefit and cause significant harm to both society and individuals or spending $A63,074 per annum (or $A173 per day) to derive significant benefit with virtually zero harm being caused which option would you take? While the dollar figures are calibrated for the Australian situation, neo-liberal governments around the world have been able to convince us that the first option is superior. There is no logic to it but reflects the extension of the logic that individuals are responsible for themselves and there is no such thing as a macroeconomic or systemic constraint on individual choice and behaviour. It is that folly that is causing all the strife at present and will ultimately bring the system down.

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I don’t care if every fact is correct

I thought it was hysterical when back in 2009 and 2010 there were papers written and conferences held which carried the theme of the “lessons learned from the crisis”. For example, the – 6th ECB Central Banking Conference (November 2010) – had an array of leading mainstream economists and central bankers telling us what it was all about despite these same characters previously representing a body of work that told us the macroeconomic problem (cycles and unemployment) had been solved. There were lots of papers, Op Eds and media commentary (every day on Fox News and its ilk) warning us of the worst unless governments imposed austerity. Even as recently as the last US election, the “skies are about to fall in” message was prominent and dominated the Republican campaign. Millions of people are unemployed as a result of these economists having sway with policy makers. The evidence denying their predictions etc started to slowly trickle in around 2008 and as the years of this madness have passed the evidence is now a dam break. At this point, the mainstream just talk among themselves and continue to bank their high salaries and take on lucrative consultancies. Denial of facts is their ultimate recourse.

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Australian PBO – another myth-making neo-liberal institution

The economics journalists were out in force again today in Australia after being fed their latest copy from the neo-liberal propaganda machine. In this case, the propaganda was in the form of the first report published yesterday (May 22, 2013) from the newly established Parliamentary Budget Office – Estimates of the structural budget balance of the Australian Government 2001-02 to 2016-17. The Report estimates that huge unsustainable budget deficits and has led to a flurry of media activity all just repeating what the PBO told them was the message. I wonder if any of the journalists have actually read the report in detail particularly the Appendix where the technicalities are exposed. Technicalities is too strong a word because it suggests there is something robust going on. Nothing could be further from the truth. This is another shoddy attempt to bias the public perception towards thinking the current (pitifully small relative to the scale of the problem) budget deficit is problematic.

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Our national broadcaster has become part of the problem

There was a time, in better days, that the evening news had news, sport and weather. Then, at some point, around the 1980s the national news started to host a Finance segment. Sometimes these segments are meagre reporting of what happened in the share markets. Even that benign news is symptomatic of the way neo-liberalism has infested our daily thinking and made the common folk feel part of the game that they are really can never be part of – wealth creation. At other times, the finance segments introduce economic theory and analysis as if it is news. Then the insidious nature of the neo-liberal propaganda machine becomes stark. But the starkness is lost on most because they think it is news and we have been led to believe that what gets pumped out at 19:00 on the national broadcaster (and other times by other broadcasters) are facts. Facts don’t lie do they? Well, when it comes to finance segments they are mostly lies.

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A Budget that reduces growth and increases joblessness – for no sound reason

Last night, the Federal Government brought down the – 2013-14 Budget – claiming it was a responsible response to the circumstances it faced (declining world growth, declining terms of trade and persistently high exchange rate) and that it emphasised growth and jobs. Neither claim is remotely correct. It is a pro-cyclical budget – that is, a contractionary budget that builds on the contractionary fiscal shift in 2012-13, which by its own arithmetic reduces growth and causes the unemployment rate to rise. It will damage employment growth and increase poverty rates. It reflects a failure to acknowledge the state of the economy (4 per cent output gap) and to implement the correct counter-cyclical fiscal response (a significant rise in the projected budget deficit). It might have some education and disability spending in it. But even in those areas the spending is inadequate and, in the case of education, based on a neo-liberal view that the federal government should be funding the private schools, which, in general, educate the children from wealthy and high-income families. Overall, a destructive fiscal plan given the state of the economy.

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The glorious gouging of the public purse

It is budget time in Australia this month. The federal government will release their Budget next Tuesday and the State and Territory governments all put them out around the same time. Yesterday, it was the turn of one of our larger states Victoria. I will come to that in a moment. The mania intensifies around May and every day and night on TV, radio and in the printed media there is a constant commentariat and an almost uniform message, which was summarised by one so-called expert last night – “the Budget is broken”. I remember this chap in the 1980s as a junior Treasury official aspiring to be important. I wondered about the analogy. There are lots of “black holes” (buckets) and “drunken sailors” (big spending) but “broken”. I guess the only thing is that broken is bad – using broken as an adjective. All the commentary is about how bad the deficit is given the terms of trade are slowing and undermining tax revenue. While the deficit is way to low, it is good that we have one. It is good that America and Japan and the UK have deficits. There is at least some net spending flowing each day to support the economy. Anyway, time to look into the glorious gouging of the public purse that only the neo-liberals can make look as though it is financial responsibility at its best.

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Lower deficits now, undermine our grandchildren’s future

It been quite a few weeks for the prophets of doom. R&R revealed they can’t handle a simple spreadsheet competently, and then try to claim a positive number is really a negative number. And who said they said there was a threshold of debt anyway? They now deny there is a threshold. History tells us this is a new denial. Then their Harvard colleague, the so-called historian throws himself off a cliff – again – with his remarks about JMK. Again? Joe Weisenthal has – Ferguson’s Horrible Track Record on display. He reports that Ferguson has “self-immolated a number of times trying to fight an ant-Keynesian battle”. What is it about Harvard? Has there been an internal inquiry set up to consider whether R&R committed academic fraud or were just incompetent? Why do they still continue to employ Ferguson after his homophobic remarks? It is not as if he displays any acumen when it comes to economic commentary. How much does he receive in appearance fees for telling all and sundry what is not going to happen, even though he says it will? I guess as an historian, Ferguson might know one thing. Fools have a habit of reappearing and repeating the nonsense that prior fools claimed was the truth.

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Australia output gap – not close to full capacity

A national media organisation (Crikey) invited me to be one of their Fantasy Budget providers this year and this is a background blog to the preparation of my Fantasy Budget 2013-14 for Australia, which I will publish next Monday. In this blog I consider the state of the Australian economy in terms of output gaps. The Australian government is keen to claim that the economy is operating close to or at trend real output – sometimes the Prime Minister or Treasurer – and senior Treasury officials, will replace the descriptor “trend output” with “full employment”. They make that claim to justify imposing fiscal austerity on the economy, which is expressed by their most recent goal to achieve a budget surplus in the current year. They have been pursuing that strategy for several budgets now after taking appropriate steps in 2008 to allow the budget deficit to rise significantly to head off the looming disaster associated with the global financial crisis. While the stimulus was not large enough at the time it did save the economy from the type of chronic recession that most of the advanced world remains stuck in. But, once recovery was established, the conservative ideology returned and the fiscal stimulus was withdrawn too quickly and an austerity plan implemented. At the time, it was clear that they would fail to achieve a surplus because in attempting to do so they undermined the recovery, and, their tax revenue growth. Other international events (a slowing of the terms of trade and an overvalued dollar) have compounded their poorly crafted fiscal strategy. The reality is that the Australian economy is now performing well below trend and the divergence is increasing. The labour market is also producing grossly inferior outcomes and we are clearly a hundreds of thousands of jobs short of what a reasonable definition of full employment would require. The budget deficit is too small not too large and the direction of policy in the coming year should be expansionary not contractionary.

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