Close the borders – gangs of benefit cheats are coming!

So the American conservatives wimped out again after a month or so of mindless bluster and hot air. The only problem is that their posturing, in itself, causes damage to the economy. It’s interesting that the conservative economists keep harping on about their belief that the existence of a budget deficit causes uncertainty among private firms who are then reluctant to invest because they fear higher tax rates to pay back the deficit. While this flawed narrative is not theoretically robust, defies history, and is empirically bereft, uncertainty is a problem for firms and the ridiculous behaviour of the American conservatives in the Congress in recent times has dramatically increased it. The world is moving now into a second phase of the retrenchment of the state. The first phase required the neo-liberals to redefine the crisis, which was clearly an issue of excessive private debt, as crisis of sovereign debt. They have been successful in achieving this step. Our ignorance and obsequiousness has allowed this mindless narrative to dominate the public debate. The second phase is now well underway way where the victims of the austerity become the focus of attention for the Conservative politicians. The unemployed are vilified as lazy and welfare cheats (their benefits are targeted – for example, in Ireland now); single mothers are accused of strategic pregnancies; and the old furphy – benefit migration – is wheeled out into the public debate to engender an increasing resentment of the presence of ethnic minorities who is simply trying to do what all of us want – to improve the lives of their families and themselves. All of these campaigns are designed to divide and conquer the populace, segment this into conflictual factions (“them and us” mentality), and justify further unwarranted cuts to government spending.

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How to fail a simple macroeconomics examination

In the opening sequence of the HBO series, Newsroom, the anchor is participating in a public forum at an East coast US university (in Boston). During the Q&A, he is asked by a student (“a sorority girl”) in the audience, who is suitably bright-eyed and full of American blather, “Is America the greatest country in the world?” He initially blusters but the convener of the forum pushes him for a “human moment” and what follows is 3 classic minutes of TV, starting with “its not the greatest country in the World, Professor, that’s my answer” and concluding with “So when you ask what makes us the greatest country in the World, I don’t know what the fuck you are talking about. Yosemite?”. He then said among other things that “We used to be …”, “we stood up for what was right”, “we waged wars on poverty, not poor people”, “we aspired to intelligence, we didn’t belittle it” and more. The latest shenanigans in the US Congress where the GOP representatives have become a mindless rabble is certainly testimony to the sort of things the mythical Newsroom anchor was talking about in the series. The Sydney Morning Herald article (October 16, 2013) – US shutdown stalemate enters realm of the absurd – reports on how the GOP reps do not “agree either on tactics or strategy” and Boehner announced to the press that there had been “no decisions about what exactly we will do”. This is one day before the lunatic right-fringe of their party is intent on causing mayhem. My prediction – some ridiculous deal will be done and the US government will not default. We will see. But today I am providing a little glimpse into examination processes by using what might have been a first-year answer to an examination question to highlight some important points. I hope you enjoy the little window into life at a university.

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Declining wage shares undermine growth

There was an interesting Working Paper issued by the ILO – Is aggregate demand wage-led or profit-led? – last year, which finally received some coverage in the mainstream economics press this week. The Financial Times article (October 13, 2013) – Capital gobbles labour’s share, but victory is empty – considered the ILO research in some detail. That lag is interesting in itself given that it was obvious many years ago that the trends reported in the ILO paper and the FT article were part of the larger story – that is, the preconditions – for the global financial crisis. If you look back through the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) literature, dating back to the 1990s, you will see regular reference to the dangers in allowing real wages to lag behind productivity growth. It seems that the mainstream financial press is only now starting to understand the implications of one of the characteristic neo-liberal trends, which was engendered by a ruthless attack on trade unions by co-opted governments, persistent mass unemployment and underemployment, and increased opportunities by firms to off-shore production to low-wage nations. Better late than never I guess.

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Anti-Poverty Week – best solution is job creation

Today marks the beginning of – Anti-Poverty Week – in Australia and elsewhere. The overwhelming reason people are poor is because they are unemployed (or underemployed). There are related reasons associated with poor housing etc, but the fact remains that if we eliminate mass unemployment by providing enough work for all those who desire it and ensure there are jobs for those with multiple disadvantages then we will reduce poverty overnight. While poverty is persistent, it wasn’t always thus. I have been to many meeting where policy makers, usually very well adorned in the latest clothing, plenty of nice watches and rings, and all the latest gadgets (phones, tablets etc), wax lyrical about how complex the poverty problem is. I usually respond at some point (trying my hardest to disguise disdain) by suggesting the problem is relatively simple. The federal government can always create enough work any time it chooses at a decent wage to ensure that no-one needs to live below the poverty line. Read: always! It can also always pay those who cannot work for whatever reason an adequate pension. Read: always. If we run out of real resources which prevent those nominal payments (wage and pensions) translating into an adequate standard of living, then the government can always redistribute the real resources by increasing taxes on those who have “too many” resources at their disposable. Too many is a relative concept in this context. The so-called complexity of the problem is just code for an unwillingness of the policy makers to use the capacity they have as currency issuers. There is nothing complex about announcing that the government will pay a living wage to anyone who wants to work – just turn up tomorrow and the wage begins. If that announcement was made then we would know who wants to work for a wage and those who do not. For Anti-Poverty Week – the best thing the government can do is announce the unconditional job offer.

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Saturday Quiz – October 12, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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Environmental Sustainability and Economic Growth

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to publish the text sometime early in 2014. Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

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Australian labour market data – urgent need for fiscal stimulus

Since the last Labour Force data release (August), Australia has elected a new federal government. Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for September 2013 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirms that the new government needs to substantially alter the macroeconomic policy settings in favour of stimulus to address the virtually zero employment growth and the upward trend in labour underutilisation. We learned today that employment growth remains around zero and, while unemployment fell, that result was all due to the decline in the participation rate (third consecutive month). Working hours also fell, which means that underemployment has risen. This data signals an urgent need for fiscal stimulus to reverse the negative trend. Unfortunately, with both sides of politics are locked into an austerity mindset the situation is likely to deteriorate further.

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GOP reps – if they had another brain it would be lonely

I have been watching in my spare time (yes) the 2010 first season of the HBO series – The Newsroom – which could be about events in US this week, so persistent has been the moronic behaviour that nations’ polity. There is growing evidence that the US Republicans are now an extremist party with a substantially tenuous grip on reality. They clearly do not understand that an economic depression is likely to follow their refusal to prevent the US Treasury to continue spending according to the current laws that the US Congress passed and which, together with the tax code, determine the current deficit. They clearly do not understand how deficits arise and the function they serve. The US might hold themselves out to be the world leaders in a range of areas but this debate is revealing how stupid the government representatives have become.

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Careful before you leap!

The triumphalism of British Chancellor George Osborne in recent weeks, as a modicum of positive economic news seeps out of the – Old Dart – or should I say Britain (given the Old Dart strictly refers to England), is almost too much to bear. Moreover, stand ready for a phalanx of I-told-you-so-mainstream-economists coming out in force lecturing all and sundry about the benefits of fiscal austerity. These characters have been hanging tough for any sign of growth (they have been waiting some years) so they could all chime in that austerity has created the conditions for the growth. They choose to misunderstand any evidence that might cast doubt on that (spurious) correlation. The reality is very different. Austerity has undermined growth and retarded the economies where it has been imposed. All economies eventually resume growth. But the legacy of the policy failure will remain for years to come. All I can say to these triumphal ones is – Careful before you leap!

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