Australian labour market – further deterioration and there is worse to come

The labour market contraction that I have been signalling for the last three months continued in September. The rising unemployment rate and the declining employment levels are all down to the work of the RBA and its ridiculous interest rate increases. Given the lag in interest rates impacting on the real economy, the current labour market results are probably reflecting two rate hikes ago and since then the RBA has hiked two further times pursuing their zealous ideological agenda. The situation will thus get worse as these rate hikes finally start impacting. Meanwhile, the inflation rate is being driven by factors that rising unemployment will not directly address. It really demonstrates the destructive New Keynesian logic, which is one of the worst aspects of the neoliberal era. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (October 15, 2026) – Labour Force, Australia – for September 2026 – which showed that the labour market deteriorated further in September. The results are terrible – a weakening demand-side and the declining participation masking the damage to unemployment. Had the labour force not shrunk the unemployment rate would have risen to 5 per cent rather than the official rise of 0.1 point to 4.7 per cent. Thus, both hidden unemployment and official unemployment rose in September. The broad labour underutilisation rate (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose 0.1 point to 11.0 per cent, which means that 11 per cent of the available and willing workforce is not working in one way or another and that doesn’t include the 55 thousand extra workers who left the labour force. The reality makes a farce of the RBA’s claims that the labour market is tight. The RBA is sabotaging the economy for not acceptable reason.

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