Is a high-pressure economy strategy in Japan viable?
I am currently working on developing models that help evaluate the constraints on fiscal expansion in Japan arising from the ageing workforce in the construction sector. The current government under Ms. Takaichi is pursuing what they call a “responsible proactive fiscal policy” that aims to utilise large-scale public investment spending to crowd-in private investment expenditure and create a high-pressure economy, where productivity growth is enhanced. The strategy also involves significant fiscal reform – moving away from single-year fiscal cycles (obsessing about primary surpluses) to a long-term, multi-year spending plan that provides certainty to the non-government sector. The combined public-private investment blueprint proposes to spend ¥370 trillion in the period to 2040 across 17 strategic sectors. Most mainstream commentary is focused on the implications of the increase in public debt arising from the proposals (given that the government still unnecessarily matches net spending increases with debt issuance) for bond market yields and whether the government will run out of money. An irrelevant focus! However, the tntent of the plan can be contested given the need to reduce the ecological footprint of all nations. But even if we ignore that issue, the practicalities of the proposal can be contested within a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) framework based on resource availability.