Australian labour market – emerging signs that tight fiscal and monetary policy is killing prosperity

It’s been a big data week and after the US inflation data that I analysed on Monday, and the Australian wage data (analysed yesterday), we have the Australian labour force data release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force, Australia – for July 2023 today (August 17, 2023). The July result shows a weakening situation (although the rotation in the sample contributed to this somewhat). Employment fell (particularly full-time) and unemployment rose to 3.7 per cent (up 0.2 points). There are now 10.1 per cent of the available and willing working age population who are being wasted in one way or another – either unemployed or underemployed. That extent of idle labour means Australia is not really close to full employment despite the claims by the mainstream commentators. As I noted yesterday, wages growth is declining and modest. We will see next month whether this weakening is, in fact, a trend consistent with other indicators (retail sales, etc). Given inflation has been in decline since last September and there is no wages pressure, there is no reason for policy settings to be trying to push people into joblessness. That is just an act of bastardry and ideological zealotry.

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