Not everybody can de-lever at the same time

The title reflects fact not opinion. However, most commentators still fail to grasp that reality. In the current economic climate it means one thing – imposing fiscal austerity in the hope that governments can reduce debt levels will fail and bring with it devastating consequences for the non-government sector. It is the latter sector that has reduce its debt exposure and under current institutional arrangements that means the government sector has to increase deficits (and debt) not other way round. The simple fact is that when private spending is subdued the government sector has to run commensurate deficits to support the process of private de-leveraging by sustaining growth. Those advocating fiscal austerity or those who claim that the amount of outstanding private debt is simply too large for the Government to replace with public debt fail to understand the basic tyranny of the sectoral balance arithmetic. Put simply, not everybody can de-lever at the same time.

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