US inflation expected to average 1.3827935 per cent for the next ten years

Yesterday (March 18, 2012), the Cleveland branch of the US Federal Reserve Bank released their latest estimates of US inflationary expectations. This data estimates what the “public currently expects the inflation rate to be” over various time horizons up to 30 years. The data shows that the US public “currently expects the inflation rate to be less than 2 percent on average over the next decade”. The ten-year expectation is in fact 1.38 per cent per annum. In the light of the massive expansion of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and all the mainstream macroeconomic theory is predicting that such an expansion would be highly inflationary, how can the public expect inflation to be so low over the next decade? Answer: the mainstream macroeconomic theory is deeply flawed and should be disregarded. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) correctly depicts the relationship between the monetary base and the broader measures of money and explains why movements in the former are no inflationary.

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Saturday quiz – March 17, 2012 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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The lessons of history – subtitled – are the Dutch printing guilders?

There was a Wall Street Journal article (March 14, 2012) – Default and the Nature of Government – which demonstrates how a recall to history can be misused if key additional (contextual) information is left out of the discussion. The article in fact tells us nothing meaningful about the likelihood of sovereign debt default. The sub-title relates to the latest news from the Netherlands which suggests that the strident rhetoric of their leadership about the failure of the “southern” states to meet their obligations to the Eurozone might now be coming back to haunt them. If they are not, then they should. If the Dutch are to be consistent then massive and destructive penalties should now be imposed on them by Brussels. They won’t be – but that just tells you how dysfunctional the Eurozone is!

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Questions and Answers 3

This is the third Q&A blog where I try to catch up on all the E-mails (and contact form enquiries) I receive from readers who want to know more about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) or challenge a view expressed here. It is also a chance to address some of the comments that have been posted in more detail to clarify matters that seem to be causing confusion. So if you send me a query by any of the means above and don’t immediately see a response look out for the blogs under this category (Q&A) because it is likely it will be addressed in some form here. It is virtually impossible to reply to all the E-mails I get although I try to. While I would like to be able to respond to queries immediately I run out of time each day and I am sorry for that.

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Unemployment causes higher property and violent crime rates

The NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) released an interesting study yesterday (March 13, 2012) – The effect of arrest and imprisonment on crime – which might be a strange topic for a Modern Monetary Theory blog to highlight. On the contrary, this type of research provides an invaluable reality check against those who think that entrenched unemployment during a recession is more efficient than fiscal initiatives that aim to directly generate public sector employment. We already know that that the daily real GDP losses that arise from an economy operating at less than full employment are massive. The BOSCAR report adds another loss in the form of higher crime rates. It confirms long-standing research findings that shows that unemployment causes higher property and violent crime rates.

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German hypocrisy and lunacy

I haven’t much time to write a blog today (travel and other commitments). But I have been examining tax revenue data for the EU in the last day or so as part of another project and thought the following might be of interest. The analysis is still unfinished (by a long way). But to the news – I laughed when I read the story from Der Spiegel (March 12, 2012) – Germany Fails To Meet Its Own Austerity Goals – which listed Germany as a serial offender in the hypocrisy stakes. I also laughed when I read that the German Finance Minister, in between games of Sudoku, told a gathering in Berlin yesterday that (as reported in a Bloomberg video) “deficit spending is the wrong way to bolster economic growth” and that “People who believe you can generate growth without pursuing budget consolidation have “learned nothing from the experience of the crisis.” The combination of staggering hypocrisy and manifest arrogance (thinking that the world is so stupid that they actually believe austerity will deliver growth) seems to have reached new heights.

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A tale of two economies – Greece and Iceland

Last Friday (March 9, 2012), the Greek government effectively defaulted on its public debt after the required minimum of 75 per cent of private creditors agreed to the so-called “haircut” or debt swap. I find it amusing how the Euro leaders have attempted to massage the default as a debt swap or some other euphemism. The facts are obvious – close to 100 per cent of those who are holding Greek government debt will lose at a minimum 53.5 per cent of the value of their assets. This was forced on the private sector by the Troika (EU, ECB, and IMF) who apparently think it is preferable to undermine private sector wealth than introduce changes to their the Eurozone monetary system which might actually make it work! The discussions in Europe will quickly move to when Bailout 3 is required because reducing the level of Greece’s debt does very little to alleviate the problem which is the capacity of the Greek government to service the flow of interest payments while simultaneously destroying its tax base with austerity. The recent performance of Iceland serves as a timely reminder of how currency sovereignty (monopoly issuance and floating currency) can assist an economy make substantial structural adjustments without major attacks on living standards. Moreover, such an economy can restore growth relatively quickly in contradistinction to EMU nations which are locked in (variously) to years of recession-cum-depression. This blog is a brief tale of two economies – Greece and Iceland

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Saturday quiz – March 10, 2012 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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